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The EU: IN or OUT?
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Trying to have your cake and eat it here me thinks.bowlhead99 wrote: ».....
We would know what they had on the table as an offer, and what we had already got as "outsiders", .....
However, we don't have that state of affairs, so the point is moot.
At the moment we have agreements predicated on us being an EU member......
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When we voted to join the Common Market we were not told that Brussels was then going to move the goalposts (indeed - they changed the game!) by morphing into the EU. So we did not agree to what we ended up with. Your implied claim that we negotiated from a position of power and knew what we were getting is false.
If we remain, things will continue to change. They may improve - there is plenty of room for improvement - or they may get still worse. Nobody knows and I have no faith in talk of vetos. They will be subject to pressures of the moment as always.
The future we faced when we joined the EU was unknown as is the future now - whether we stay or leave - so the concept of "Would you join now if that was the question" is valid.
There are very few guarantees in life so it is unreasonable to bang on demanding 100% certainty from the leave politicians as remain has been doing when remain cannot offer any guarantee of what the future will bring if we stay.bowlhead99 wrote: ».... there's no guarantee that when we go cap in hand to the Chinese or the US and say " hey, we're a lot smaller than the EU, but can we get at least as good, or preferably better deal, as they get please?", they will be generous. Pretty unlikely IMHO
You make the point that we are smaller than the EU as if that is a disadvantage. Sure, the number of customers we can offer is lower but so are the number of red lines in our list of demands from the negotiation. We do not need to include in the agreement things that only the French or the Germans or any of the other 25 countries worry about. We need only negotiate about things of interest to the UK. So it could be a lot easier to negotiate the limited agreement we want and therefore a lot quicker.
I feel like just saying "NO IT WON'T" as my opinion is as valid as yours - and that is all your statement is - an opinion - not even a quantified one - just more project fear.bowlhead99 wrote: »and it will take years.0 -
Chickabiddybex wrote: »We would enter an agreement with the EU to keep access to the single market and that would include joiining the Schengen area. Don't forget Boris Johnson doesn't get to decide what happens if we leave - our MPs do. 450 our of 650 are pro EU. The most likely outcome is one similar to Norway, and we'd open our borders in order to access the single market.
You sound as if you speak from a position of knowledge but I suspect it is purely your individual opinion. I am desperate for factual information (not that we will get any) on which to base my decision and you stating your opinion as a fact just further muddies the water.
Why on earth do you try to keep dragging Schengen into this. Border fences and controls are being re-introduced across much of the area it used to hold sway in. I believe it is discredited.
You also seem to favour the Norwegian model while in fact Norway exports more to the EU than it imports while we are the opposite. It gives us more bargaining power than the Norwegians had if nothing else. It might even pay us to have barriers against rump EU exports. We could buy more Nissan cars and fewer Volkswagen polution spreaders.
Please do not state your opinion as a fact. We probably all make that mistake occasionally (covering self!) but you have made a string of posts all committing that sin (my opinion!) in their entirety0 -
You also seem to favour the Norwegian model while in fact Norway exports more to the EU than it imports while we are the opposite.
Exactly for this reason (being net importer from EU) UK will have much more bargaining power outside EU. EU can't afford to lose UK market.Happiness is buying an item and then not checking its price after a month to discover it was reduced further.0 -
EnglishMohican wrote: »You sound as if you speak from a position of knowledge but I suspect it is purely your individual opinion. I am desperate for factual information (not that we will get any) on which to base my decision and you stating your opinion as a fact just further muddies the water.
Why on earth do you try to keep dragging Schengen into this. Border fences and controls are being re-introduced across much of the area it used to hold sway in. I believe it is discredited.
You also seem to favour the Norwegian model while in fact Norway exports more to the EU than it imports while we are the opposite. It gives us more bargaining power than the Norwegians had if nothing else. It might even pay us to have barriers against rump EU exports. We could buy more Nissan cars and fewer Volkswagen polution spreaders.
Please do not state your opinion as a fact. We probably all make that mistake occasionally (covering self!) but you have made a string of posts all committing that sin (my opinion!) in their entirety
I am saying the truth, I'll quote myself: "The most likely outcome is one similar to Norway"
As you can see I have said that it is the most likely option not the 100% certain option.
Unless you disagree that it's the most likely option and that's what you're pointing out? Because I would go as far to say it is FACT that it's the most likely option. Look at Iceland, Switzerland and Norway. They are all in the Schengen area. I'm not saying we will too 100% because no one can predict the future. I'm saying it is the most likely outcome. Boris Johnson can say he prefers an Australian immigration system all he likes - he doesn't get to choose new deals with the EU after we leave. Our MPs and the rest of the EU do. And because of these FACTS it is most likely we will end up with something similar to Norway. (again, not certain 100%, just most likely)Hi. I'm a Board Guide on the Gaming, Consumer Rights, Ebay and Praise/Vent boards. I volunteer to help get your forum questions answered and keep the forum running smoothly. Board guides are not moderators and don't read every post. If you spot an abusive or illegal post then please report it to forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com (it's not part of my role to deal with abuse). Any views are mine and not the official line of MoneySavingExpert.com0 -
Chickabiddybex wrote: »I am saying the truth, I'll quote myself: "The most likely outcome is one similar to Norway"
As you can see I have said that it is the most likely option not the 100% certain option.
Unless you disagree that it's the most likely option and that's what you're pointing out? Because I would go as far to say it is FACT that it's the most likely option. Look at Iceland, Switzerland and Norway. They are all in the Schengen area.
You are doing no more than express your opinion based on zero evidence. The UK is much larger than the above three countries hence we are in a much stronger position. Countries such as Germany need to export to us, we buy a lot of their products.
Anyway, there are many reasons to question membership of the EU.0 -
Well bookies and the stockmarket are saying we remain in the EU. They rarely get it wrong by that much (4-1 for a Brexit !)0
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EnglishMohican wrote: »I feel like just saying "NO IT WON'T" as my opinion is as valid as yours - and that is all your statement is - an opinion - not even a quantified one - just more project fear.
The treaty provides for two years for the terms of departure alone - there is no timescale for negotiation of revised terms of trade with potential trading partners who we have just damaged politically and economically
There is plenty to be afraid of if we leave
I prefer Project Fear to Project Pangloss,which is what many of this thread appear to be voting for.0 -
BananaRepublic wrote: »You are doing no more than express your opinion based on zero evidence. The UK is much larger than the above three countries hence we are in a much stronger position. Countries such as Germany need to export to us, we buy a lot of their products.
Anyway, there are many reasons to question membership of the EU.
That is not the issue. We could reach a deal with Germany in which we promise not to levy a tariff on German Car Exports, they are hardly likely to refuse in principle but in practice we need to agree this with the whole EU with all 27 agreeing to it.
Now they might offer not to put a tariff on the goods and services the import from us, provided we reciprocate. But who is to say they will do it? They might say we will offer you zero tariff trade on your car exports in return for you reciprocating on cars we export to you. That will not help with all the other goods and services we export.
But that does not mean they will give UK zero tariffs on all that we export to them which is only a small part of what the EU currently imports from us.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Well bookies and the stockmarket are saying we remain in the EU. They rarely get it wrong by that much (4-1 for a Brexit !)
Kay Burley has been quoting private polls at 70-30 for remain. I think this is absurd unless there have been massive changes in the past few days.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0
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