The EU: IN or OUT?

Pincher

A girl on TV said she will end up flipping a coin.

This explains the Scottish Referendum a lot.
What if everyone DID flip a coin?
51:49 is pretty much what you expect from a few million throws.

aspiration_2

Crag30 wrote: »

I'm voting LEAVE. I can't see how things can get worse than this. The country is in debt up to it's eyeballs, we've sold everything off, hardly any police, fire brigade, NHS can't cope, schools can't cope.
I can't see current suppliers/buyers not wanting to trade with us, and if that happens we'll have to make/grow/serve things for ourselves once again.

France and Italy seem to be having problems, and I can't see Merkel getting the vote next time, and so I have visoins of the whole EU thing calapsing if we vote Out, which would kind of rule out teh reason to remain in. Norway seems to want out too

Yes. It must be remembered that even refugees(real and bogus) do not want to stay in these countries and want to head to Germany or UK. That says it all about these collapsing countries like Greece. And we want to be partners with these countries. It is not the EU, but NATO and nuclear power that has kept the peace in Europe.

Dird

Pincher wrote: »

A girl on TV said she will end up flipping a coin.

In the end we're all flipping a coin. Nobody knows what the UK wll be like inside or outside the EU in 10-20 years time; we don't even know if the EU will exist then

borkid

PasturesNew wrote: »

Those who say "I haven't spoken to anybody who is voting ...." - that is more about who you mix with than anything else.

Everybody lives in a bubble - you mostly live among people who are "just like you", you work with people who were all chosen to "just like us", you socialise/drink where you like the people ....

So it's not really surprising.

I bet you'd hear differing views if you spent a day at 7 different venues:
- the golf club
- the yacht club
- the pub where they deal drugs
- the local food bank
- the WI
- the local Chamber of Commerce
- the job centre

Of the above, I bet there's nobody that hangs out regularly in all 7 of those (types of) venues.

We all move in bubbles ....

The chap who services our CH boiler said a couple of days ago he'd only met one person who is in the remain camp. He has a good cross section of people although it is rural and small towns.

jimjames

Dird wrote: »

The undecided?

I reckon 59% remain although I've voted leaveBecause the elderly have experienced the positives of being outside the EU whereas this is all the young know. Or because most elderly are racist xD

Or the elderly have a false sense of nostalgia for the past that the young don't. Interesting article by AA Gill along those lines. "Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty" http://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/376668/3260348/#.V2vIhmf2bcs

Everything was fantastic before we joined the EU. Except Britain being known as "the sick man of Europe", the devaluation of our currency, the strikes, 3 day week, restricted trade. Would you want the days where an Allegro was one of the few car we could drive as imports were limited/expensive?

It may be true that long term we could prosper outside the EU. I'm not sure how many people would be prepared to wait 20 years or more for that to happen. If it takes 5-10 years to negotiate a trade deal the expectation seems to be that immediately we have a massive trade based on it. In reality that seems highly unlikely and those markets would build over time.

With a massive current account deficit and large government borrowings I don't think the markets would have patience to fund UK even if citizens were prepared to wait.

Crag30 wrote: »

I'm voting LEAVE. I can't see how things can get worse than this. The country is in debt up to it's eyeballs, we've sold everything off, hardly any police, fire brigade, NHS can't cope, schools can't cope.

If we leave then I think you will find out VERY quickly that things can get much worse and will get worse fast. Based on predictions from the likes of Soros I'd expect up to 20% drop in the pound within days. That will lead to all imports rising in price so fuel will increase 10-15p a litre within a week or two. It certainly won't be a benign situation in the short term - that's up to 5 years and could get a lot worse before it gets better.
Interest rates have been stable for a long time, mortgage rates low and low inflation. Rising inflation, dropping economy will not make a good combination.
Scaremongering? I don't think so, just the reality of globalisation and how markets will move against us when there is such a huge element of uncertainly and risk mixed in when we aren't in a great position economically.

savings_my_hobby

Well here it is, I was looking forward to this referendum since Cameron announced it back in 2012.
I have been very disappointed with both campaigns and the level of the debate among the politicians, the media coverage has been dreadful as well and the coverage has not taught me anything substantial that i did not know prior to the campaign.

Luckily though this is a referendum, its not just up to the politicians and for this one day we are all truly equal.
Although we may not agree with the result, we will have to accept it as we are never going to be asked again, certainly not in this half of the century anyway.

hopefully its Brexit in the morning.

JohnRo

I watched in disbelief as a TV interview of people in the street collared one woman who said "I'm voting leave but I don't know why"

Sums up the entire leave campaign for me. Garden path.

BLB53

What if everyone DID flip a coin?
51:49 is pretty much what you expect from a few million throws.

Surely after so many spins it would end up at 50:50

talexuser

BLB53 wrote: »

Surely after so many spins it would end up at 50:50

If after 40 or 50 million spins it is 50:50, the result may then depend on one very last spin

jimjames

stoneman wrote: »

I have not spoken to one person that is voting to remain. Let's hope the polls get it wrong like they did in the last election.

On local Facebook groups the leave number is about 90%. Pollsters will have a very hard time trying to get a methodology to cover such wide regional variations when there is no party allegiance that can be linked to intentions.