Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts.

mystic_trev

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Nice trolling back to my very first post , how long did that take you?
Have you read my other 808 posts?

No just the first few :rotfl: You seem to have missed the point. The thread is entitled Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts and that's what I've done.You seem to have a problem with that? Embarresed? I expect you will be soon. Admitting you've made a mistake (when you're wrong) will be a very difficult thing to do!

IveSeenTheLight

mystic_trev wrote: »

No just the first few :rotfl: You seem to have missed the point. The thread is entitled Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts and that's what I've done.You seem to have a problem with that? Embarresed? I expect you will be soon. Admitting you've made a mistake (when you're wrong) will be a very difficult thing to do!

No, you made a point about one thread of mine, which I responded to
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/newreply.html?do=newreply&p=11552143

I am not afraid to admit when I am wrong, it's not difficult, in fact I have regularly thanked people with opposite views to mine when they have come up with some good info.

The problem with some trolls on here is that they can take specific posts at one point in time and try to focus on an "I told you so" philosophy i.e. this thread.
I dont know how long MSE has been on here, but I have not seen any games of "Let's see when the first bear post was". It is reported that some people (maybe not on MSE, I don't know and don't really care), have been calling for a crash since 2002

Since your reading this thread, let me point out, I have said: -

• The UK average house price is overvalued by about 22%
• This needs to drop 22% now or 15% over three years taking inflation into account
• With sentiment, this may overshoot the correction required
• Very importantly, I have said that different regions are affected differently and you cannot measure your area against the UK average
• House prices in many areas were not affected as much as was portrayed as the UK average drop of approx 40% between 1989 and 1996. I have shown that the biggest drops I found was in London and the South East. I believe a similar trend will happen this time with London and the South East properties vastly affecting the UK average such that other areas are not affected as much.
• House prices are still rising in Aberdeen, but can and may drop at some point
• I do think that the credit crunch will affect this differently this time, hence the sharper drop in mortgages and house prices when compared to the early 90's

All in all, I tend to take the debate side of the underdog or those with less points to get accross. I cannot stand one sided debates. Life would be boring.

If someone says, all is black, I will challange them and show there are different shades. Vice versa if someone says all is white, I too would challange

To you it may seem that I am all or very bullish and I can understand this, but this is just to balance all the bearish posts on here.
I do think positively, but can and do consider negative impacts to my life.
Generally I am an extremely positive person, even when faced with adversity.
Much better to face up to facts and positively think how you can get through the situation and / or move forward

My wife gets annoyed with me being like this at times as I can point out the opposite of what she says, so that we as a couple can discuss the issue thoroughly.

I believe I have contributed to this forum in may ways, one of which is to bring forward data for each individual person on here to use as and when they wish.

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

Quote me all the reassuring stats you want re B&Bs figures.. all those stats might look fine to you but seems to me B&B only just averted more serious problems - or is it speculation and sensationalism again?

Not once have I quoted any stats about B&B.......

The rest of your post I could sum up an answer by saying, I do understand that there is a credit crunch going on. But we cannot be defeatest, we need to look positively how to move on and get through the situation

We all need to tighten up our belts, this may not be a bad thing with so much easy lending and higher debts as a result

sigur

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

House prices are still rising in Aberdeen, but can and may drop at some point

They are dropping and have done so over the past 2 quarters.

John_Pierpoint

How can you tell what house prices are doing in Scotland, when nearly all property is sold by secret competitive sealed bids? It is probably months after the real sale that the real price emerges?

Does it work like some auctions, with the lawyer who sold the property publishing a list of guide prices and achieved prices?

John.

John_Pierpoint

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

There are rough types on MSE - surely not;)

Getting sort of back on thread and acknowledging that it is the price of land that goes up and down:

We will all be missing threads like this between now and Xmas (2012 ?), won't we?.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=4782517

[It is nice to see Doozergirl exposing the scammer]:beer:

OMG I spoke too soon, in the week that UK Land Investment was ruled an illegal scam (and "1000's lose 10's of millions"), I am offered:

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=dc&dc=globalland-apr08&FromAdvert=Solus-2008-04-27

The UKLI story is here, 17 minutes into the programme.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/moneybox/

For what it is worth I Googled and immediately these links popped up:

GLOBAL LAND GROUP. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL, HAYDEN JAMES
. PROPERTY SPYING, SELL MY PLOT. CLIENT CONFIDENTIAL, INDEPENDENT LAND AGENT. LAND ADVISORY

UK Land Investments Group reports record-breaking traffic for a quarter » ... the UKLI Land News website is committed to ensure that the global land ...

Of course all this is just coincidence, you just cannot trust computers.

IveSeenTheLight

Originally Posted by IveSeenTheLight
House prices are still rising in Aberdeen, but can and may drop at some point

sigur wrote: »

They are dropping and have done so over the past 2 quarters.

Can you please post a link showing this? I'm very interested in seeing data showing this

These links show they have risen in the last two quarters (Q2 2008 not completed yet. Q2 2008 should be available at the end of June)

Q4 2007 - Shows a quarterly annual rise of 25% (For Aberdeen)

Q1 2008 - Shows a quarterly annual rise of 13% (for Aberdeen)

Looking at myhouseprice.com this shows that monthly Aberdeen has increased in price from Feb though to April

Looking at the CML website, while it only goes down to an area as Scotland and not to individual towns, the monthly reports shows house prices in Scotland dropped from monthly from Oct to Feb (2.16% peak to trough drop)but then rose again in March (1.01% rise)

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Can you please post a link showing this? I'm very interested in seeing data showing this

Here is some alternative data/stats for you to digest.

=================
BBC UK House Prices:
=================

Aberdeenshire
Average Cost: 187,220
Detached: N/A
Semi-detached: N/A
Terraced: N/A
Flat: N/A

Change in last quarter: -5.2%
Change in last year: 15.8%
Sales: 1,188
=======

Aberdeen City
Average Cost: 170,798
Detached: N/A
Semi-detached: N/A
Terraced: N/A
Flat: N/A

Change in last quarter: -6.2%
Change in last year: 13%
Sales: 1,235
========

IveSeenTheLight

Thanks Dopester,

I went directly to the ROS website (Where BBC have obtained the data) and noticed that the information was for the whole of Grampian, not Aberdeen

John_Pierpoint

Definitely driving by looking in the rear view mirror.