Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts.

m00m00

I've seen the light has one point right

properties WILL be higher than the 2007 peak at some point

unless we have negative inflation for the future (which we won't)

the issue is how long a run it will need to get there

after all, as famously said, in the long run we are all dead.

Idiophreak

setmefree2 wrote: »

But nobody can seriously believe we aren't going to see big falls of at the very least 20%.

Why? I have to say, I had 20% picked as a rough figure in my head, just beacause I think a 20% drop in house prices would (certainly in these parts) make the math a lot easier for FTBs...

Just wondered why you're so certain it'll go by more than that?

carolt

My favourite was nollag2006, who was streets ahead of the other bulls in brashness and bullishness.

Here's a random sample:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=6492734&postcount=4
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=6492734&postcount=4
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=5795645&postcount=226
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=5794454&postcount=222

Specially liked this one:

"HSBC have already increased their expected house price growth estimate for 2008. Far from a crash coming, house price growth seems to be stabilising in the 5 - 10% range.

As another poster pointed out, what I love about these HPC muppets, who have been peddling their "the sky is falling" message now for 10 years is that even on the very front page of the HPC website all the indicators point to further house price growth, but yet they refuse to acknowledge this ..."

Would nollag2006 like to come out and back that up today?

dopester

m00m00 wrote: »

properties WILL be higher than the 2007 peak at some point

unless we have negative inflation for the future (which we won't)

A lot of smart minds believe we are heading in to deflation, and deflation is negative inflation, so I wouldn't be so quick to automatically dismiss it.

Deflation is certainly where all my financial bets are placed - with inflation in energy in food - but overall deflation tanking everything else for an overall negative inflation environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

Deflation is generally regarded negatively, as it is a tax on borrowers and on holders of illiquid assets, which accrues to the benefit of savers and of holders of liquid assets and currency.

Gorgeous_George

A crash, in my definition, is 10,000 suicides, or divorces.

Lots of misery defines a crash.

Of course, misery for some should bring happiness for others. With rising interest rates and falling LTVs, I think the misery won't bring any happiness.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope the HPCers have some happiness to balance the outright misery that the 'losers' will enjoy.

GG

m00m00

dopester wrote: »

A lot of smart minds believe we are heading in to deflation, and deflation is negative inflation, so I wouldn't be so quick to automatically dismiss it.

Deflation is certainly where all my financial bets are placed - with inflation in energy in food - but overall deflation tanking everything else for an overall negative inflation environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation

we would need constant deflation, followed by virtually 0% inflation to guarantee prices would never rise above the 2007 peaks. This is almost certainly not going to happen.

my point is that prices will be higher, but it could be in 5 years, it could be 10 years, or it could be 50 years

I'll bet £10 to a charity of a bulls choice that they aren't higher in 2009 though

mr.broderick

Paul_N wrote: »

I dont keep track of these things but didn't Mr B STR at some point, but lose patience, and buy some time in Summer '07, about a month before the credit crunch bit?

If so, maybe the "ftb wannabees" should have sympathy for him.

Hi paul..thanks for taking notice, yes we did sell to rent and move in to rented in january 2007, it was great and a nice house but when i sat back and realised i'd taken my family from their home because i was greedy i knew i had to rectify this, so we bought this beautiful house we are in now, got a great deal on it so no regrets.

mr.broderick

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

A crash, in my deinition, is 10,000 suicides, or divorces.

Lots of misery defines a crash.

Of course, misery for some should bring happiness for others. With rising interest rates and falling LTVs, I think the misery won't bring any happines.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope the HPCers have some happiness to balance the outright misery that the 'losers' will enjoy.

GG

That is a bang-on post..

dopester

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

A crash, in my definition, is 10,000 suicides, or divorces.

Lots of misery defines a crash.

Of course, misery for some should bring happiness for others. With rising interest rates and falling LTVs, I think the misery won't bring any happines.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope the HPCers have some happiness to balance the outright misery that the 'losers' will enjoy.

GG

Their misery is nothing to do with me. It's a dirty low trick to try and push guilt on to others who have done nothing wrong but simply waited for market reality to return.

I've waited to buy an affordable home and that wait has been a inconvenience.

The sheeple only have themselves to blame when committing themselves to servicing ludricous debt levels, at 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 times income, or self-cert lie-to-buy, or buying loads of other properties to BTL. Their suffering is not our fault - just a consequence of buying beyond affordability and in a major bubble.

And I don't care about arguments that they didn't know what they were doing when they got in to it, or were advised by their hairdressers or co-worker, Kirstie (no GCSEs?) or ex-car traders (Dom Littlewood) or ex Brookside actors, or del-boy type wheeler dealers made good (Martin Roberts).

Gorgeous_George

I agree that waiting for the market to be right is the sound thing to do.

However, I never suggested that those who wait are causing the misery that some may experience. Simply that a crash, just like mammoth HPI, brings misery to some. Misery that may not be fully countered by other people's happiness.

The biggest (possibly only) losers are those who bought in last 2 - 5 years (depending on the size of the cra....orrection.

Winners will be few and far between.

GG