Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts.

John_Pierpoint

And I spent half an hour trying to find this excellent HBOS information - I'd convinced myself they must have made it subscription only or something.

HelpWhereIcan

The Nationwide gives the most gloomy picture of house prices in my area in the last crash.

In my area, the last crash saw average house prices fall 23% between 1990 and 1996 according to the Nationwide. Only 1990 (16%) and 1992 (10%) saw drops of 10% or over. The rest of the years showed a small, sub 5% increase (91,93,96) or small falls - 1994 (5%) & 1995 (3%).

In my area, the last crash saw average house prices fall by 5% between 1990 and 1995 according to the Halifax.

Only 1993 & 1994 showed drops with the other years showing stagnation or small increases.

The reason for the difference? The figures provided by each lender reflect the mortgages they arrange and the prices paid by their customers only.

For that reason, anyone looking at the Nationwide or Halifax indices alone could be deluding themselves -either way.

Land registry and Hometrack are possibly better indicators as they take into account all sales whether a mortgage is involved or not. They will take longer to show any real falls, but are probably more accurate IMHO.

My point?

I think your definition of a house price crash and how it is measured is very important.

If a crash is houseprice falls then we are there and everyone who did not predict Armagaeddon deserves to be put in the stocks and publically mocked and abused by those who are obviously so much more intelligent.

If a crash is falls like the last crash, evidenced by Land Registry figures then your experience will depend on who you are and where you are. But we are still not there and it may be a bit previous to start ressurecting the most extreme posts either way.

We need to empirically define what we mean by a crash if we are going to use it to judge who is/was right or wrong.

Sadly, I think we'll take 57 pages to find that

tomstickland wrote: »

Yes, I've been quite suprised by the volume of sensible posts from back then.

is the general consensus

and that

tomstickland wrote: »

The point is to find the most aggressively confident "they won't be any fall in prices" style poster so we can remember how it was.

will be a lot of fun, but ultimately less fruitful a search than might be expected.

Roll on 2010 when the witch hunt can start in earnest - who will be the winners who rewrite history. Who will get to be witchfinder general?

menacing,_torch_carrying_shadows_in_the_background wrote:

Vested interest , Burn Him!!!:mad: :mad:

sorry folks, time to run - the locals are getting restless

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Sorry, try this

Or the full address is
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/19_01_08PostTownsData3.xls

Thanks. Can you explain how to find various areas in the early 90's crash? I can only see figures for 2006 and 2007.

Would be very interested to see more detailed data.

carolt

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I generally look specifically at my own area of concern, but when there are people on here such as yourself who claims that what happens in some areas must gappen across the whole of the UK, I simply ask them to refer to look at the data for themselves
http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/inclu...TownsData3.xls

Tiem to open your eyes CarolT and read peoples posts correctly

Maybe your eyes need to be opened. Or maybe you've been looking into your 'Light' too much?

I've never claimed anything of the sort. As you well know. Of course different areas will fall and rise at different levels. In fact the post of mine you quoted from said exactly that.

So whilst you're welcome to disagree, could you at least bother to check whether your criticisms are actually based on fact rather than just random abuse - it makes you look a bit silly.

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

Maybe your eyes need to be opened. Or maybe you've been looking into your 'Light' too much?

I've never claimed anything of the sort. As you well know. Of course different areas will fall and rise at different levels. In fact the post of mine you quoted from said exactly that.

So whilst you're welcome to disagree, could you at least bother to check whether your criticisms are actually based on fact rather than just random abuse - it makes you look a bit silly.

My you don't half have to produce some defensive posts carol you must really get under peoples skin, how are you with your pupils?

adr0ck

mr.broderick wrote: »

My you don't half have to produce some defensive posts carol you must really get under peoples skin, how are you with your pupils?

carolt's pupils are not doing to well today

she's having great difficulty reading

she can't seem to understand the concept of starting at the top of the screen and working her way down

think it must be the time of the month

carolt

adr0ck wrote: »

carolt's pupils are not doing to well today

she's having great difficulty reading

she can't seem to understand the concept of starting at the top of the screen and working her way down

think it must be the time of the month

Congratulations!

Just waiting for someone to say this!

You are how old?

mr.broderick

carolt wrote: »

Congratulations!

Just waiting for someone to say this!

You are how old?

He means halifax figures imminent carol which i feel would have more of a BEARing on your current mood than your menstrual cycle !!!

adr0ck

mr.broderick wrote: »

He means halifax figures imminent carol which i feel would have more of a BEARing on your current mood than your menstrual cycle !!!

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

adr0ck

carolt wrote: »

Congratulations!

Just waiting for someone to say this!

You are how old?

what that you can't read