Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts.

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Since your reading this thread, let me point out, I have said: -

• House prices are still rising in Aberdeen, but can and may drop at some point

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Thanks Dopester,

I went directly to the ROS website (Where BBC have obtained the data) and noticed that the information was for the whole of Grampian, not Aberdeen

IveSeenTheLight - Here is an article with reporting falls and negative outlook for Aberdeen, but presumably this is not Aberdeen at all; probably just outrageous unfounded speculation.

HUGE SLOWDOWN IN NORTH-EAST

Housing bubble could be on brink of bursting

There was fresh evidence last night that the north-east housing bubble could be about to burst as new figures pointed to a huge slowdown in the market.

The Press and Journal can reveal that the number of properties for sale across the north-east has almost doubled over the last year, from 1,559 on June 15, 2007, to 2,933 yesterday.

And over the same period, the number of properties available at a fixed price has more than quadrupled, from 154 last year to 726.

The figures were calculated using the Aberdeen Solicitors Property Centre (ASPC) listings for houses and flats across the whole north-east – and prompted warnings last night that prices could be about to tumble.

Aberdeen University sociologist John Bone said the north-east housing market appears to be on the brink of a downturn following the global credit crunch and tighter mortgage lending.

He suggested reports that the region can avoid similar problems to England were “well wide of the mark”.

“These figures clearly suggest a slowing market and, potentially, a situation where sellers are holding out for last year’s prices while buyers are now unwilling or unable to meet them,” he said.

“This represents a classic ‘stand-off’ in markets that have peaked before some sellers, eventually, have to give in and accept what is on offer.

“Also, given that a good deal of the housing bubble has been driven by investors, at this point many are likely to sell out to protect their capital gains, driving the market lower still.”

There is further evidence to suggest that the housing market in the north-east has reached a “tipping point”.

According to ASPC figures, average house prices in the Aberdeen area for the first quarter of 2008 at £202,661, were 2% up on the previous quarter – but were almost 4% down on the second quarter of last year (£210,356).

“All of these factors taken together suggest that the market peaked at the middle of last year and has been treading water since,” added Mr Bone.

“While the next quarter’s figures may provide a clearer indication of what’s happening in Aberdeen, there are very sound reasons for assuming that the Scottish and Aberdeen market is merely lagging behind the UK and that the trend is now likely to move downward in line with the rest of the country.”

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/693749?UserKey=0

Ewarwoowar2

Gorgeous_George wrote: »

A crash, in my definition, is 10,000 suicides, or divorces.

Lots of misery defines a crash.

Of course, misery for some should bring happiness for others. With rising interest rates and falling LTVs, I think the misery won't bring any happiness.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope the HPCers have some happiness to balance the outright misery that the 'losers' will enjoy.

GG

The statistics show that the losers of the crash will be people who obtained self cert (liar) loans i.e. people who, with even an ounce of intelligence, should have realised they couldn't afford the mortgage.

I recently advised a janitor who was sacked from a hotel. He told me that he earned approx £18k and his wife was a part time cleaner. When I asked how they were doing, he told me that they were struggling to keep ahead of their £1000 per month mortgage. I calculate that someone leant them approx 8 times their join income. Insane.

People like that, and mortgage lenders, need the lesson that they will learn over the next few years. Reckless borrowing and lending have push prices much, much higher than is sensible for the well being of our economy. Recklessly living for the day, borrowing more than you can afford, the property industry fuelling the flames with the "prices can only go up" mantra have caused the recession were about to enter.

You mentioned the drama of people committing suicide due to losing their homes. This may be true. But how many people, over the last few years, have felt that crazy lending/borrowing have put the price of houses beyond anything they can afford. This disenfranchisement must have caused depression, and perhaps suicide, for countless people who felt they never be able to afford a house in the place they were born.

It's not as clear cut story as "man kills himself after losing his house", but I'd be willing to bet that rapid house price increase caused more mental health problems than the house price crash.

pickles110564

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You'll probably see me on here in 3, 5, 10 years when HPI starts ramping up in here and everyone is bullish, posting bearish views to try and keep an equilibrium debat

Not long now green shoots are poking through.