Game: find some old "there won't be a crash" posts.

IveSeenTheLight

MrDT wrote: »

The data shows me that my area has actually been far worse affected by the boom than I had expected.

This is what is good about the data (apart from when there are missing data for some towns)
It narrows the data from a UK average perspective to a town average perspective. This can only help to understand how each area is affected.

Of course, some areas will be affected far worse than others.

P.S. I don't really consider myself a bull, I suffer from trying to bring a balanced debate. My wife always tells me that in discussions I can generally put accross views that are vastly different. I think this is because I dont believe things always only go one way and there is potential for a different outcome.

You'll probably see me on here in 3, 5, 10 years when HPI starts ramping up in here and everyone is bullish, posting bearish views to try and keep an equilibrium debat

mystic_trev

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

P.S. I don't really consider myself a bull, I suffer from trying to bring a balanced debate.

Not a Bull? Balanced debate? Perhaps you'd like to explain these comments you made a few months ago?

As the property market is stilll booming and I would expect to for a number of years more (until supply outways demand) the return on the property price increases is substantially more than that from ISA's or high interest accounts.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=6312135#post6312135

Sounds fairly bullish to me fella. Do you reckon the Property market is still booming?

IveSeenTheLight

mystic_trev wrote: »

Not a Bull? Balanced debate? Perhaps you'd like to explain these comments you made a few months ago?



http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?p=6312135#post6312135

Sounds fairly bullish to me fella. Do you reckon the Property market is still booming?

Nice trolling back to my very first post , how long did that take you?
Have you read my other 808 posts?

If you did you would realise that when I talk about my specific circumstance I talk about my specific market area.
Since Sept 07, my area increased an annual quarterly increase of 25%
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q4_2007.pdf
And q1 2008 by 13%
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/q1_2008.pdf

This results in a Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 HPI of 9.7%
Is property still bomming? then yes in my area it is
Can I see it falling, then yes it may, but not yet

Will other areas or the whole of the UK be the same as Aberdeen, definately not, each area is different. Some may be better, some may be worse.
I do not have the crystal balls to predict what each area is doing

John_Pierpoint

The higher they come the harder they fall....................

As we used to say in my rugby playing days.

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You'll probably see me on here in 3, 5, 10 years when HPI starts ramping up in here and everyone is bullish, posting bearish views to try and keep an equilibrium debat

This would assume you've not lost both your BTLs, your own home, and all your savings in a serious property and economic downturn. Hard work to begin again with nothing whilst living in a tent.

I must admit being around the oil industry does have advantages but the "speculation" you often like to dismiss, preferring to rely on your misleading stat info instead, is giving many a dire warning.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7441427.stm

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

This would assume you've not lost both your BTLs, your own home, and all your savings in a serious property and economic downturn. Hard work to begin again with nothing whilst living in a tent.

Yawn. Man you like to live in a world of fantasy, predicting everyone is going to lose their homes.
Its rather tiring now.
I've detailed my personal risk to you many times before, and am not going to bore everyone else again by showing you once more.

dopester wrote: »

I must admit being around the oil industry does have advantages but the "speculation" you often like to dismiss, preferring to rely on your misleading stat info instead, is giving many a dire warning.

My misleading stats????????
Stats are facts, I have only showns facts when displaying stats.
Show me where I have once mis-lead.
I think you are trying to mis lead people with this sentence.
If I post some stats and facts, its up to you if you read them or not

dopester wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7441427.stm

Good, classic journalism this, picking in effect a driver earning 30,000 (that's higher than the UK average you know) and the driver moans about highly overpaid earners :rotfl: :rotfl:

dopester

I'm not claiming you personally are misleading anyone. Just that stats in themselves can be misleading, if you rely on them to much to give an insight to current circumstances, or rely on them as some sort of guide to the future. They have to be balanced by real world experience, or "speculation", as you put it, especially from current events, financial news and anecdotal information.

That BBC video report with that driver being asked to take a 40% pay-cut is just a snapshot case of what is happening, and it went on spell out fears for similar pay-cuts / or redundancies in other sectors. It looks like economic contagion to me.

Yes that driver was well-paid during the giddy easy money boom economy, but now we are entering an age of tight money economic reality. Thankfully I'm not in that driver's situation, of having to take a 40% hit in salary with a big mortgage to pay for. As I've said before, wage cuts are another reason I think rents will come down, as the rental market will be forced to accept what people can afford to pay.

IveSeenTheLight

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

The higher they come the harder they fall....................

As we used to say in my rugby playing days.

That's true but I have for a long time said that each area is affected differently.
Scotland has had some high price increases in the last few years, but did you know it is still one of the cheapest areas to buy in the UK

Each area is different, which I have said many times before.
Scotland has notvastly outgrown ratios as London and the South East has.
This is not to gloat but again poitning out that you have to assess each area in its own right.
I've posted many stats / links to proove this, not going to troll through to show again.
I did however see this new link which can sum up some previous point
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7442009.stm

Saying "The higher they come the harder they fall...................." while may be a way of providing those in weaker situations the confidence to tackle those in a much higher position, I do not think Scotland is one of those lofty positions

IveSeenTheLight

dopester wrote: »

I'm not claiming you personally are misleading anyone.

preferring to rely on your misleading stat info instead

I guess we understand English differently, and I'm Scottish

That BBC video report with that driver being asked to take a 40% pay-cut is just a snapshot case of what is happening, and it went on spell out fears for similar pay-cuts / or redundancies in other sectors. It looks like economic contagion to me.
[.quote]
Its not a snapshot, its sensationalism, to make the news seem more newsworthy.
Can you show any other professions which are requested to take a 40% cut?
Did you also hear in the report the 40% drop for the driver was to be a short term cut?

dopester

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Its not a snapshot, its sensationalism, to make the news seem more newsworthy.

This is the conflict you and I have - where I disagree most with the validity of your black and white statistics - many of which are not fully representative of the total picture, nor any real indicator to the future.

I read serious news-report after serious news-report, where as you seem to read them all as being "sensationalism" or "speculation". As though they will have no impact and as though we are not heading in to some very dark testing economic times. I have news for you. Situations impacting on real life are reported in the news as well. They are real. They have consequences.

Quote me all the reassuring stats you want re B&Bs figures.. all those stats might look fine to you but seems to me B&B only just averted more serious problems - or is it speculation and sensationalism again?

Telegraph

But make no mistake: the parallels with Northern Rock extend well beyond the superficial. When B&B's advisers were engaged in emergency talks with Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, eight days ago, the subtext was obvious. If Citi and UBS had walked away from B&B's rights issue, the resulting inevitable share price slump might well have sparked a run on the bank every bit as vicious as the one seen at the Rock.

Do you have a habit of totally dismissing anything the news says about the economy... all speculation and sensationalism? That BBC News video had 40% cuts or alternatively REDUNDANCY.

Is the credit-crunch something the media have dreamt up for fun to you? Something they report on because there is no other real news? Or is it actually something which is serious and real?

Here.. just a taster again from the Sunday Herald from 7 hours ago for you to chew on, dismiss and spit out.

NOTHING TRAVELS FASTER THAN bad news. Last week a report from the international Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ripped into the British economy, branding it the equivalent of a basket case. It criticised the way the UK has been run for the past decade, saying the options left to the government were limited. It slashed growth forecasts for this year and the next, and must have left economists in the Treasury and the Bank of England sprinting for their calculators. The OECD's conclusion was that Britain is heading for a worse slowdown than anyone has previously predicted, accelerating fears that the UK economy and recession are shortly to become familiar neighbours.

Or this from today's Sunday Times....

Is the economy grinding to a halt?
Economic Outlook
David Smith

ALL the news fit to print about the economy is very gloomy. In a matter of weeks the credit crunch’s bite has got harder and evidence of a sharp slowdown tangible.

Add in blunt warnings from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, roughly suggesting Britain has been transformed from model economy into basket case, and it looks like the last rites.