Premium Bond Winner ?

Dizzycap

Congratulations to ALL winners - AWESOME!

No winnings again for me. I buy premium bonds every month and have done for around 5 years.

I've won once - £50. I decided to cash the whole lot in and then buy again as one bulk lot of numbers.

Worth a try I suppose . I don't hold out much hope but you never know

silverwhistle

I put some money into a Vanguard ISA the other day, but as that is a bit boring and I wanted to stay liquid at the moment bought 12K of bonds with their first draw this coming month.

I have no great expectations and my previous holding of £102 - yes, some are  around 60 years old - has only yielded £25 in all that time. No holding of breathe here at the start of the month!

eskbanker

silverwhistle said:

I put some money into a Vanguard ISA the other day, but as that is a bit boring and I wanted to stay liquid at the moment bought 12K of bonds with their first draw this coming month.

I have no great expectations and my previous holding of £102 - yes, some are  around 60 years old - has only yielded £25 in all that time. No holding of breathe here at the start of the month!

Tiny holdings are unlikely to win anything, but with a meaningful quantity like £12K then you should on average win a prize five months a year, with a median annual return of £425 (3.54%):

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#12000

GalacticaActual

The Premium Bonds prize fund will be reduced from the December 2024 draw.

Essentials at a glance

What are the odds of winning?

21,000 to 1 for every £1 Bond in the monthly prize draw (variable) (until the November 2024 prize draw)
22,000 to 1 for every £1 Bond in the monthly prize draw (variable) (from the December 2024 prize draw)

What's the annual prize fund rate?

4.40%, variable (until the November 2024 prize draw)
4.15%, variable (from the December 2024 prize draw)

Premium Bonds | Our savings Accounts | NS&I


Interest rates on some other NS&I accounts are also reducing from 20th November 2024 (apart from their Direct ISA):
Easy access savings | Savings accounts | NS&I

polymaff

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

RedImp_2

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

Is it? Seems a bit high 

eskbanker

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

polymaff

RedImp_2 said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

Is it? Seems a bit high 

80% times 4.15;  then divided by 60%.  Both rounded down to one decimal figure.

polymaff

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

True, that when the lower prizes changed from 90% to 80% of the prize fund my method weakened - but that 80% has been 80% for some time now, and the figures folk publish seem to justify the assumptions made.

I still believe that I'll never win a big prize.  It might benefit others to sober up and accept that, too.

eskbanker

polymaff said:

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

True, that when the lower prizes changed from 90% to 80% of the prize fund my method weakened - but that 80% has been 80% for some time now, and the figures folk publish seem to justify the assumptions made.

I still believe that I'll never win a big prize.  It might benefit others to sober up and accept that, too.

I'd still be more inclined to believe the maths than the tiny subset of holders who choose to post on here, but, for the record, someone under this roof (not me ☹ ) has had two middle band prizes in the last six months!