Premium Bond Winner ?

Ifts

I received the "You've just won!" email today and:

£125 (100 & 25) on £13.8k holding - after two blank months.

Neil8419

congratulations

Alex.T

Oct 2024 - £0 on £10k holding

RedImp_2

1x £100 on full 

joshii

Nil return on £39k for the first time since January.

Jan 24 - £0
Feb 24 - £125
Mar 24 - £200
Apr 24 - £150
May 24 - £200
Jun 24 - £150
Jul 24 - £125
Aug 24 - £100

Sep 24 - £200
Oct 24 - £0

Macsidia

Holding £43K. Back to a more bog standard month for October with a modest £75 win (1x 25, 1x £50). I suppose it’s still a lot better than nothing.

Brings my total now to £1,225 for 2024 with just 2 draws remaining. Hopefully I can have a strong finish to the year as Nov/Dec last year was terrible.

Bravepants

joshii said:

Nil return on £39k for the first time since January.

Jan 24 - £0
Feb 24 - £125
Mar 24 - £200
Apr 24 - £150
May 24 - £200
Jun 24 - £150
Jul 24 - £125
Aug 24 - £100

Sep 24 - £200
Oct 24 - £0

Very good three digit run though!

llewdiskram

Only £75 on FH, my partner got £300 on FH.

I’m convinced at some point I will get a big win, I do think about putting it into a savings pot to get more on interest, but then worry I won’t get my big win 😂

GarbageGuy

£41k invested  £600 Prizes in the last 4 months

fredflower

SnowMan said:

fredflower said:

I also realised it wouldn't work for the year where I bought a block rather than auto reinvested.

You can use the XIRR function for more complicated scenarios where only some winnings are reinvested, and where you buy a new block of bonds, to calculate the average annualised return over the whole period

1. The purchase of bonds including the initial purchase should be treated as +ve cashflows in this function at the date of purchase.

2. Any winnings reinvested in bonds should be ignored completely as cashflows in this function, as these reinvestments form part of the return you are trying to calculate and so you don't want to consider them as cashflows

3. But any winnings paid out and not reinvested should be treated as -ve cashflows (as you are taking the money out of premium bonds) at the date they are paid out.

4. And the final cashflow is the value of bonds you hold now but treat this as negative (so a cashflow of minus 5,100 at say 1st September 2024).   

The XIRR function can be a bit volatile in some circumstances, because there isn't always a unique answer, but it should work OK in this scenario.

For example applying this to the last year gets the same result as before of about 19%, see cell I8 and the formula in the formula bar. The first date is 1st December 2023 because you have to hold bonds for a full month for them to qualify for prizes. The slight difference from before (19% vs 18.9%) is because before we were treating all months as having exactly the same number of days. Of course there are no cashflows of type 3 in this example because all winnings were reinvested. But where there are type 3 cashflows the previous method doesn't work.

Thank you again and sorry for the late reply. 😊 I was hoping to add this new calculation but it seems my brain is mush. I briefly looked at your reply a few weeks ago, Googled the XIRR function, then promptly forgot to do anything while it was fresh in my mind and made sense. 🤦‍♀️

Another complication that comes to mind is that the amount in my totals column would be true for those months without a win as being the 1st of the month, but the win months the amount is increased, but could be anytime in the first week of the month as the draw date varies. 😒

I want my brain back! 🤞