Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

Kim_13 said:

I do think that longer blocks win more often, so selling up odds and ends and combining them would be the only change that I would make.

Longer blocks do win more than shorter ones, but only in direct proportion to the number of bonds in each, i.e. a block of 100 bonds has exactly the same odds of winning as a ten blocks of ten bonds each, or a hundred individual ones for that matter.

Kim_13 said:

Few bonds win more than once, but I’m not aware of being able to sell up individual bonds. If someone needed some funds, it would perhaps make sense to start with a winning bond and sell from there.

Again, a bond that's just won has exactly the same odds of a win in the next draw(s) as a bond that hasn't....

Bravepants

Kim_13 said:

I do think that longer blocks win more often, so selling up odds and ends and combining them would be the only change that I would make.

Few bonds win more than once, but I’m not aware of being able to sell up individual bonds. If someone needed some funds, it would perhaps make sense to start with a winning bond and sell from there.

The odds of winning one prize, in other words one bond winning, is 21000 to 1. Therefore the probability of a block of 100 bonds being the block that contains the winning bond (which is really what you are saying) is 210 to 1; or 21000 divided by 100. 

So yes longer blocks have higher probability of being the winning block, but the probability of a single bond winning is still 21000 to 1. It's individual bonds that matter, not blocks.  

ukbren

I only have a relatively small holding (around £7k) but I've had some surprising little wins.  A couple in particular prove what can happen with small blocks...

Off a £100 block
I won £50, which was re-invested
Two months later, the £50 "prize win" won another £100

I've also won £50 off a £25 block.

Human nature is a funny thing but I can see that with a scattergun effect, you might be led to thinking a large contiguous block would reap better rewards than many smaller ones with the same total value (because the 'pellets' could hit in the gaps?).

If you put the same theory into playing the lottery, would you choose 6 consecutive numbers?  I would hazard "no".  Same odds as any other combination, opposite psychological effect.

Nebulous2

ukbren said:

I only have a relatively small holding (around £7k) but I've had some surprising little wins.  A couple in particular prove what can happen with small blocks...

Off a £100 block
I won £50, which was re-invested
Two months later, the £50 "prize win" won another £100

I've also won £50 off a £25 block.

Human nature is a funny thing but I can see that with a scattergun effect, you might be led to thinking a large contiguous block would reap better rewards than many smaller ones with the same total value (because the 'pellets' could hit in the gaps?).

If you put the same theory into playing the lottery, would you choose 6 consecutive numbers?  I would hazard "no".  Same odds as any other combination, opposite psychological effect.

Same odds of winning, but likely to be a much smaller win. I remember reading that something like 10,000 people choose 1,2,3,4,5,6 every week. I don't 'pay' the lottery, but if I did and won I'd be slightly annoyed at sharing it with 10,000 others. 

Kim_13

With the lottery though, you are trying to get at least three “hits” (game dependent of course), so the odds of them being close together would be quite small. With Premium Bonds it feels like a different approach in that you are trying to maximise your chances of getting at least one hit to avoid a blank, so covering a large area would tend to do that.

Having looked again at my holding, I do have a block of similar length to that that my tiny blocks would be if I sold up and combined them. They have won roughly similarly.

Podseas

20 people shared the jackpot when consecutive numbers (5 thro 10) came up in a South African lottery.
Many people dont pick random numbers, they pick sequences and birthdays.

Anyway there are no shared wins on Premium Bonds and anyones bonds are just as likely to win as anyone elses. Selling up and re-buying is a fool's errand.

Sg28

Kim_13 said:

With the lottery though, you are trying to get at least three “hits” (game dependent of course), so the odds of them being close together would be quite small. With Premium Bonds it feels like a different approach in that you are trying to maximise your chances of getting at least one hit to avoid a blank, so covering a large area would tend to do that.

Having looked again at my holding, I do have a block of similar length to that that my tiny blocks would be if I sold up and combined them. They have won roughly similarly.

The odds of them being close together are exactly the same as other numbers that separate. 

Kim_13

Sg28 said:

Kim_13 said:

With the lottery though, you are trying to get at least three “hits” (game dependent of course), so the odds of them being close together would be quite small. With Premium Bonds it feels like a different approach in that you are trying to maximise your chances of getting at least one hit to avoid a blank, so covering a large area would tend to do that.

Having looked again at my holding, I do have a block of similar length to that that my tiny blocks would be if I sold up and combined them. They have won roughly similarly.

The odds of them being close together are exactly the same as other numbers that separate. 

Statistically, but I think people would approach the lottery on the basis that that had barely, if ever, happened. Also not picking more than about one of the numbers that had come out in the previous week, etc.

eskbanker

Kim_13 said:

Sg28 said:

Kim_13 said:

With the lottery though, you are trying to get at least three “hits” (game dependent of course), so the odds of them being close together would be quite small. With Premium Bonds it feels like a different approach in that you are trying to maximise your chances of getting at least one hit to avoid a blank, so covering a large area would tend to do that.

Having looked again at my holding, I do have a block of similar length to that that my tiny blocks would be if I sold up and combined them. They have won roughly similarly.

The odds of them being close together are exactly the same as other numbers that separate. 

Statistically, but I think people would approach the lottery on the basis that that had barely, if ever, happened. Also not picking more than about one of the numbers that had come out in the previous week, etc.

'People' do all sorts of daft things that don't withstand objective rational scrutiny though, hence astrologers being able to earn a living....

mebu60

Podseas said:

20 people shared the jackpot when consecutive numbers (5 thro 10) came up in a South African lottery.
Many people dont pick random numbers, they pick sequences and birthdays.

Anyway there are no shared wins on Premium Bonds and anyones bonds are just as likely to win as anyone elses. Selling up and re-buying is a fool's errand.

About 8 or 9 years ago here in the UK there were >4000 people who had 5 of the 6 numbers on Lotto which were divisible by 7 (the sixth number wasn't and no-one had all 6). As a consequence they received about £15 each and certain newspapers were full of 'furious' people who clearly didn't understand how lotteries work.