Premium Bond Winner ?

RedImp_2

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

Is it? Seems a bit high 

eskbanker

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

polymaff

RedImp_2 said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

Is it? Seems a bit high 

80% times 4.15;  then divided by 60%.  Both rounded down to one decimal figure.

polymaff

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

True, that when the lower prizes changed from 90% to 80% of the prize fund my method weakened - but that 80% has been 80% for some time now, and the figures folk publish seem to justify the assumptions made.

I still believe that I'll never win a big prize.  It might benefit others to sober up and accept that, too.

eskbanker

polymaff said:

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

True, that when the lower prizes changed from 90% to 80% of the prize fund my method weakened - but that 80% has been 80% for some time now, and the figures folk publish seem to justify the assumptions made.

I still believe that I'll never win a big prize.  It might benefit others to sober up and accept that, too.

I'd still be more inclined to believe the maths than the tiny subset of holders who choose to post on here, but, for the record, someone under this roof (not me ☹ ) has had two middle band prizes in the last six months!

PeskyBlunder

I expect to win something in November. (Just wanted to be the 10000th post!)

IanManc

PeskyBlunder said:

I expect to win something in November. (Just wanted to be the 10000th post!)

Except you're not.

I won nothing in September on a FH and £25 in October. Wish me luck for November!  

cricidmuslibale

IanManc said:

PeskyBlunder said:

I expect to win something in November. (Just wanted to be the 10000th post!)

Except you're not.

I won nothing in September on a FH and £25 in October. Wish me luck for November!  

@IanManc Seeing that you've had two consecutive very lean months, I definitely wish you lots of good luck for November - I hope you win at least 10 times the amount you won in October!

polymaff

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

eskbanker said:

polymaff said:

Hmmm. Typically 3.3% return on a significant holding;  5.5% equivalent for high-rate tax-payers.

I don't think it's as valid as it used to be to simply ignore the returns from the high and medium prize bands - these used to represent about 0.2% of the prizes but are closer to 1.3% these days, which can have a more significant impact on average returns, rather than these being regarded as completely negligible.

https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#50000 has been updated with the new rate and shows a median return for a full holding over a year to be 3.6%, which would equate to 6% for higher rate taxpayers.  Obviously that median varies according to size of holding and duration though....

True, that when the lower prizes changed from 90% to 80% of the prize fund my method weakened - but that 80% has been 80% for some time now, and the figures folk publish seem to justify the assumptions made.

I still believe that I'll never win a big prize.  It might benefit others to sober up and accept that, too.

I'd still be more inclined to believe the maths than the tiny subset of holders who choose to post on here, but, for the record, someone under this roof (not me ☹ ) has had two middle band prizes in the last six months!

Ah, you are doing what you criticise in others - parading a single event.  Let's see.

As for "the maths",  NS&I cannot do arithmetic, let alone maths - as they regularly demonstrate.

eskbanker

polymaff said:

Ah, you are doing what you criticise in others - parading a single event.  Let's see.

No, I'm not claiming that it's statistically significant, but was simply countering your assertion that others should 'sober up and accept that they'll never win a big prize' by highlighting that people do win big prizes (OK, medium-sized ones in this case, but within the 20% of the prize fund that you choose to ignore).