Euro (€) Currency Thread

silentstorm

I'm in the middle of booking a budget holiday in Italy for October. I hope the exchange rate is atleast a little better by then.
I can't decide if to change it as I go along or wait to change it til a week or 2 before in hope of getting a better rate? It's so sad having to spend so much on a hostel!

inspector_monkfish

1.1145 trading this morning

harryhound

Borrowed from another thread and sourced form:

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2...etton-woods-3/

The eurozone’s largely balanced external position covers ample intra-EMU imbalances among eurozone countries. Current account dispersion reached from +8.4% in the Netherlands and 7% in Germany to -13.4% in Cyprus as of 2008. The European Commission notes that while large current account balances by themselves could merely be the expression of rational private sector choices, a comparison of real exchange rates with their benchmark “equilibrium” current accounts shows the existence of sizable real exchange rate misalignments.
Decompositions of this kind gave rise to claims that Germany, in particular in its role as EMU’s “center” economy, is engaging in beggar-thy-neighbor behavior by setting in motion a real competitive devaluation of its currency through falling unit labor costs. This makes a rebalancing of high deficit countries all the more challenging. Since a nominal devaluation is not an option within the EMU, high-deficit countries have no option but to deflate in real terms either through relatively higher productivity or consumption restraint against an already ambitious German benchmark.
Germany is not exposed to over-indebted households and non-financial corporates to the same extent as Spain, Ireland or even France. However, as the current downturn makes painfully clear, balanced financial accounts provide no shield against an over-reliance on external conditions or undiversified specialization patterns. Bundesbank president Axel Weber recently made clear that Germany should try to break its dependence on exports as the mainstay of its economic growth, whereas Chancellor Angela Merkel argues that a strong industrial base and external competitiveness are valuable assets, especially for an ageing and shrinking population. In fact, “[export-reliance] is not something we even want to change.”

Meanwhile a bit further East:

The drying-up of capital inflows, amid the global financial turmoil, is necessitating a sharp adjustment in Eastern Europe’s external imbalances. These imbalances rival, and in some cases exceed, those in pre-crisis Asia - i.e. current account deficits in Southeast Asia from 1995-97 fell within the 3.0-8.5% of GDP range, while those in CEE were well over 10% of GDP in Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics in 2008. A correction in the region’s imbalances is already underway via currency depreciation (in countries with flexible exchange rates) and via a sharp drop in domestic demand. Thus far, the IMF has stepped in with financial assistance in three EU newcomers - Hungary, Latvia and Romania - to smooth out the sharp drop-off in capital inflows and to avert a disorderly unwinding of external imbalances. These countries are unlikely to be the last to knock on the IMF’s door.

inspector_monkfish

1.12 trading

inspector_monkfish

10:46 01May09 Gbp flying, next key marks 0.8880/83 and 1.4949

09:45 GMT - [GBP] is roaring. That much firmer UK PMI of 42.9 has given Cable a fresh shot in the arm, which has just reclaimed its 1.49-plus status. The German bank was said to have sold a yard or so of Eur/Gbp, while a US prima name has also been a seller. Key levels to look for are 0.8880/83 in the cross and Thur's high of 1.4949 in Cable. Stops through both, and if tripped, would surely open the way for a test of the psychological 1.50 mark. The cross certainly looks vulnerable, but for the headline expect
1.4980/00 offers to form a fair obstacle.

---

1.1235 trading
(0.8880 = 1.1260)

Loopy_Lobes

Inspector,

Are you still thinking 1.15 could be reached next week?

You posted about May 07th the other week helping the pound when numbers from Europe are issued.

inspector_monkfish

Loopy_Lobes wrote: »

Inspector,

Are you still thinking 1.15 could be reached next week?

You posted about May 07th the other week helping the pound when numbers from Europe are issued.

May 7th is when ECB should make an announcement about EUR base rate.
They are expected to make a cut, and maybe announce some QE.

We seem to be fairly stagnant around 1.12 at the moment. Wouldn't say its exactly nailed on, but there is of course always a chance that we could see 1.15 by next Thursday. (that is of course market trading price, not high street exchange prices)

Fiver29

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

May 7th is when ECB should make an announcement about EUR base rate.
They are expected to make a cut, and maybe announce some QE.

We seem to be fairly stagnant around 1.12 at the moment. Wouldn't say its exactly nailed on, but there is of course always a chance that we could see 1.15 by next Thursday. (that is of course market trading price, not high street exchange prices)

I'm not up on all this financial stuff. Would a cut in the EUR base rate be good for people about to buy euros or not? We're going to France on 22nd May and I'm not sure when to buy.

inspector_monkfish

Fiver29 wrote: »

I'm not up on all this financial stuff. Would a cut in the EUR base rate be good for people about to buy euros or not? We're going to France on 22nd May and I'm not sure when to buy.

the cut is expected, so probably already priced in

its the comments the ECB release at the same time that people will be looking to read -ve or +ve

inspector_monkfish

1.1225 trading