Euro (€) Currency Thread

harryhound

On BBC World Service today repeated several times(if you can tune 648 Medium Wave in Eastern England or listen again on the net or listen in digital).
Today's investigation features the chaos of Euro banks lending to the former soviet colonies, in the "certainty" that they would all be in the Euro, by the end of the decade. The interconnections are likely to create some nasty TV "eye candy" for Euro Land before long:

Continuing his award-winning reports for the BBC World Service, Michael Robinson looks at the increasingly desperate efforts to stave off a global economic slump and depression.
He visits Europe and Asia to identify the dangers that lie ahead and investigates how the present bail-out packages devised by leaders in rich countries will hit newly emerging nations.
Using techniques untried since the 1930s, politicians and policy makers around the world are now pumping vast sums of public money into their economies, hoping to get banks to lend again to desperate companies and consumers.
Michael find out if theses various leaders' efforts are to save their own economies, or will they end up threatening the global economy?
Globalisation, has in recent decades, boosted prosperity in much of the world but is that trend about to reverse?
Barack Obama and the leaders of the developed world all proclaim the virtues of free trade, and insist they have learned the lessons of the 1930s, where protectionism produced devastating economic and political consequences.
Join Michael as he returns to Eastern Europe and Asia to investigate how the present bail-out packages devised by leaders in rich countries will hit newly emerging nations.
First broadcast on 6th May 2009

inspector_monkfish

trading at 1.1335

JasonLVC

mobby-2554 wrote: »

inspector monkfish would it be best to change my money today or wait until tomorrow?

Here's a link that I regularly visit :-

http://www.ratesfx.com/news/news-eur.html

and one of the links within that :-
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Euro_Maintaining_Support_Following_Record_1241604710839.html

...and so continues the bizarre resilliance of the Euro against all other foreign currencies. there are some more economic reports due out this afternoon for Spain and the UK but the big one is tomorrow of course.

I'm not a Forex bod so cannot advice on the subject mattter - but like horse racing and footie, if you read enough reports and track the graphs you can get a rough idea of what might happen.

inspector_monkfish

1.1315 trading

trisontana

There is a stupid headline on the front of today's Daily Express

Holiday Cheer As £ Soars

I don't think that this (at the most) 2% rise in the last few days could be called "soaring".

inspector_monkfish

trisontana wrote: »

There is a stupid headline on the front of today's Daily Express

Holiday Cheer As £ Soars

I don't think that this (at the most) 2% rise in the last few days could be called "soaring".

clutching at straws i think...
mind you, it has soared against USD over last few days

inspector_monkfish

13:15 06May09 REUTERS POLL-FOREX STRATEGISTS SEE POUND AS MOST UNDERVALUED G10 CURRENCY
13:15 06May09 REUTERS POLL-GBP SEEN AT $1.48 IN 1 MTH, $1.48 IN 6, $1.53 IN 12 ($1.43, $1.44, $1.52 IN APRIL POLL)
13:15 06May09 REUTERS POLL-EURO SEEN AT 89 PENCE IN 3 MTHS, 87P IN 6 MTHS, 86P IN 12 MTHS (91P, 89P, 86P IN APRIL POLL)
13:15 06May09 POLL-Pound most undervalued G10 currency, to strengthen
* Sterling seen as most undervalued G10 currency
* Pound seen strengthening against dollar and euro
* 12-month forecasts in wide range of $1.30 to $2.0


LONDON, May 6 - Sterling is the most undervalued currency of the 10 leading economies but the battered pound will only regain some of the ground lost in the past year, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed on Wednesday.

The poll, taken April 30 to May 6, found about half saying the pound <GBP=> was undervalued on a trade-weighted basis, despite having rallied over 10 percent against the dollar in recent weeks and breaking the $1.50 barrier.

"GBP has been one of the worst hit currencies since the start of the credit crunch and has some ground to make up on a trade weighted basis relative to historical values," said Kenneth Broux at Lloyds TSB.

Sterling hit a 23-year low of around $1.35 in January but has ticked up as markets also considered the falls overdone but is a long way from the lofty $2.10 the pound was enjoying just over a year ago.

In recent days the pound has been trading around the $1.50 mark but the poll of around 60 analysts saw it trading below this for the next six months before staging a recovery towards the end of the year.

The poll saw the pound trading at just $1.48 in one month and six months before strengthening to $1.53 in a year as the Bank of England's decimation of interest rates and its unprecedented plan to inject cash into the money supply pays off with eventual recovery and growth.

"We expect cable to stay relatively firm in the very near term ... as the UK economic outlook remains bleak and the BoE will continue its extra-loose monetary policy. We expect an even better outlook for cable in late H2 2009," said Roberto Mialich at UniCredit MIB.

The British economy shrank a staggering 1.9 percent in the first three months of this year -- its sharpest rate of contraction in 30 years -- and according to government forecasts is expected to contract in 2009 by 3.5 percent.

The BoE is likely to eventually make 150 billion pounds total in asset purchases. It is expected to leave interest rates at 0.5 percent on Thursday, the lowest in the bank's 315-year history. [BOE/INT]

In the April poll, the pound was seen at just $1.43 now, $1.44 in three and six months and then strengthening to $1.52 in 12 months.

Forecasts in the survey were wide, ranging from $1.30 to $2.0 in a year.

Sterling volatility on a one-month annualised basis against the dollar is seen dropping to 9.8 percent from the 14.6 percent seen in April. The divergence of forecasts in Reuters polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility. [VOL/POLL]

Against the euro, sterling is seen strengthening over the year, having nearly reached parity in December, as the 16-nation bloc battles with its own deep recession.

Calculated cross rates see the euro <EURGBP=> at 89 pence in three months and 86 pence in a year. This is stronger than forecasts for 91 pence and 86 pence in the April poll.

inspector_monkfish

trading at 1.1405

waynehayes

So what time is the ECB announcement?

inspector_monkfish

waynehayes wrote: »

So what time is the ECB announcement?

BOE is first at 12.00
ECB is at 12.45

mind yer eye...