Euro (€) Currency Thread

inspector_monkfish

08:52 23Apr09 EUR/GBP: 0.8930 Demand Propping, Buiter Calls for Brown To Go

[07:51 EUR/GBP: 0.8930 Demand Propping, Buiter Calls for Brown To Go] London,
April 23. Buy interest circa 0.8930 (today"s late Asian session base) is
currently propping EUR/GBP, as it consolidates half-penny+ losses from 0.8989
(today"s Asian session top). 0.8989 was also yesterday"s peak, scaled after the
UK government"s post-budget announcement that it plans to issue GBP 220bn in
gilts for the 2009/10 fiscal year (10% higher than the GBP 200bn figure flagged
in yesterday"s FT). 0.8989 was also the April 14 high. 0.8965 (recovery rally
high from 0.8930) is a pre-0.8989 obstacle.

EUR/GBP traded as low as 0.8831 in the early stages of Alistair Darling"s
budget speech yesterday, after the UK Chancellor forecast UK economic growth of
1.25% next year, to follow a 3.5% contraction this year. The ensuing leap to
0.8989 was fuelled by Darling"s announcement that he will introduce a new income
tax rate of 50% for those earning more than GBP 150k a year from April 2010,
Darling"s view that a competitive GBP exchange rate will help UK exporters, and
the UK government"s post-budget announcement that it plans to issue GBP 220bn in
gilts for the 2009/10 fiscal year. This number was 10% higher than the GBP 200bn
figure flagged in yesterday"s FT.

There is an article by Willem Buiter in today"s FT in which the former BoE
MPC member writes that "to forestall a triple crisis (banking, sterling and
sovereign debt), it would behove the UK to apply for an IMF flexible credit
line". However, Buiter says that two of the eight criteria for qualifying for an
FCL "are obviously not met". Buiter also opines that "it would help if Gordon
Brown--responsible more than anyone for this debacle--were to resign". Brown was
UK Chancellor from May 1997 until he succeeded Tony Blair as UK PM in July 2007.
3 June 2010 is the absolute deadline of the next UK election. The opposition
Conservatives boast a 19 percentage point opinion poll lead, according to a BPIX
survey (Mail on Sunday).

inspector_monkfish

trading at 1.1195
(0.8933)

inspector_monkfish

daily telegraph story hurting the pound...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/5209225/Borrowing-puts-UKs-AAA-rating-in-danger-after-Budget-2009.html

inspector_monkfish

08:15 24Apr09 MARKET TALK: GBP Should Still Fly


0715 GMT Alistair Darling may have clipped the GBP's wings but the UK
currency should still fly, according to Forex Focus by Nicholas Hastings. There
are already signs that the selling pressure on GBP is abating with investors
remaining confident that the UK will recover sooner than many of its competitors.
(NEH)

inspector_monkfish

trading at 1.1095

inspector_monkfish

09:38 24Apr09 EUR/GBP: Inflated by Much Worse-Than-Expected UK Q1 GDP

[08:37 EUR/GBP: Inflated by Much Worse-Than-Expected UK Q1 GDP] London, April 24.
EUR/GBP has risen by a quarter-penny to a fresh 15-day high of 0.9077 on the back
of the preliminary ONS estimate that UK GDP contracted by 1.9% in Q1. A much more
modest drop of 1.5% was forecast. GDP contracted by 1.6% in Q4 2008, and 0.7% in
Q3 2008.

The GDP shock has outweighed any GBP-positivity from March"s unexpected 0.3%
rise in UK retail sales. A 0.5% fall was forecast. Annualized UK retail sales
rose by 1.5% last month, according to the ONS. A 1.1% increase was forecast.

0.9088 was the April 9 high. 0.9048 was the post-German IFO survey/pre-UK GDP
data high. 0.9029 was the pre-IFO survey high, notched on the back of UK credit
rating downgrade fears (Daily Telegraph). 0.8929-0.8978 was today"s Asian session
range. 0.8999 was yesterday"s high.

billykeats

Not looking good today

wisoli

Looking to exchange 30,000 GBP into euros and need to do this by mid-june. Crown currency have just reduced their 1.14 rate to 1.132, if you buy ahead for June. inspector monkfish - what's your view given the current downer on GBP/EUR? Would you recommend waiting, or better to fix now?

inspector_monkfish

wisoli wrote: »

Looking to exchange 30,000 GBP into euros and need to do this by mid-june. Crown currency have just reduced their 1.14 rate to 1.132, if you buy ahead for June. inspector monkfish - what's your view given the current downer on GBP/EUR? Would you recommend waiting, or better to fix now?

thats alot of dough to be risking
why not do half now
and sit on the other half for a month or so ?

inspector_monkfish

1.11 trading