Worrying slowdown in the sales Heat Pumps in 2026

Screwdriva

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/heat-pump-deployment-statistics-june-2026/heat-pump-deployment-statistics-june-2026-summary

Any thoughts on what has caused the decline in adoption?

michaels

Politics? All the mainstream parties seem to have decided that a green narrative is a vote loser (even the greens seem to want to subsidise fossil fuel use) so consumers would not be wrong in thinking that it no longer matters?

For us it would seem that the MCS scheme has pushed up prices by pretty much the value of the grant to the point where it makes no economic sense.

Newbie_John

Hot summer - The news mostly were covered with global warming and hottest day, week, month in UK etc. so not many thought about heating.

A2A and grant towards it - as its been hot, people got air cons and they realised they now have A2A heat pump..

I can also think of Plug In Solar taking over the renewables news coverage, havent heard much about heat pump this year.

But as the winter is approaching and gas prices going up it may pick up pace..

Alnat1

How much could Octopus have affected take up? Very cheap installs in 2025, not so cheap (and the nasty fasty option) put people off this year?

NedS

Around 1/3rd of all heat pumps installed annually were installed under the ECO4 scheme, which is winding down - was due to end in March 2026 but has been extended through to December 2026 to allow existing installs to be finished and fixing of non-compliant issues.

After this there is really no way for those on low(er) incomes to access a heat pump given the rising installation costs.

With much of the low hanging fruit gone and rising installation costs, I'm unfortunately not surprised at the slowdown.

debitcardmayhem

I'm am more worried about the fact that the government think they are going to get 450,000 per year. By my back of fag packets maths , allowing 2 days per install, 46weeks / year means 19000+ MCS qualified contractors…..hmmm .

Magnitio

Social media seems to be full of negativity and misinformation about heat pumps, which can't help. Appears even more than anti-EV commentary.

However, speaking to a local installer in June, he said he was fully booked for months with many of the customers being oil boiler replacements. Some customers were also waiting for the new Vaillant heat pump which is now available.

JKenH

Maybe people are realising that A2A heat pumps are better value. With the price if oil and gas rising, at least for now, one would think a few people would have been considering ASHPs. It certainly nudged me in Q2 2026 to extending my A2A system to cover upstairs and giving me the fall back option that I can heat most of my house with electricity if oil is no longer available at sensible prices. My A2A installation of 2 units upstairs and 2 units downstairs (10kW) would have cost about £5k if it had all been done in one hit this year which is probably a third to a quarter of an A2W system. And of course I have free aircon thrown in. On top of that I still have the retain the flexibility to use my oil boiler if economics dictate at any time that it is a cheaper option.

Why would anyone choose an A2W system when a more flexible A2A system can be installed at a fraction of the cost?

Van_Girl

I've just had mine completed. The uplift to £9k on the BUS, plus an extra £1k from Barclays, made the total install half the price of having my oil boiler and tank replaced, plus moving it all as the location was no longer compliant.

But I wouldn't have been rushing to upgrade if a broken boiler hadn't forced my hand, even with the increase in oil prices. And I'd have probably put back an oil boiler if I could have kept the tank and pipework in the same place.

Screwdriva

I took a look at the (admittedly small sample size of) three dozen odd households who I have helped with both Solar + renewable heating - the vast majority (~80%) were:

1. Oil/ LPG boiler households
2. End of life Gas boiler
3. Full rebuild of the property/ property's heating system

michaels

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82138331#Comment_82138331

I am end of life gas boiler looking for a zero disrupt install having upgraded the rads myself and despite the grant and having a battery I can't make the maths work. How can a heat pump (4k) a diverter valve, a 10m SWA cable run and 3m of external 28mm piping cost 13k?! Like for like boiler is only about 3k