Worrying slowdown in the sales Heat Pumps in 2026

The_Green_Hornet

Even if they reach the current government target of 600,000 heat pump replacement installations a year (50,000 per month) it will take over 40 years to replace the UK's fossil fuel boilers, and as can be seen from the official statistics they are not even close to achieving that replacement rate.

Unless they address the reasons why heat pumps are unpopular in the UK, net zero will just be a pipe dream.

zxzxzx

Here’s a way to speed it up, apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/sep/28/heat-pump-sales-soar-across-europe-after-ciuntries-cut-electricity-taxes-data-shows

NedS

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82151553#Comment_82151553

I don't disagree, but if they did you can guarantee the Daily Mail will have a photo of a pensioner huddled around a candle on the front page blaming the government for raising taxes and plunging pensioners into poverty.

We were previously on an oil boiler, and there the numbers speak for themselves with oil currently priced at around 11.4p/kWh locally, which paired with an 85% efficient oil boiler makes it about the same price per kWh as the heat pump tariffs. With an efficiency of 400%, a heat pump is a quarter of the price to run as an oil boiler delivering the same amount of heat. Given the average oil boiler needs replacing every 10 years, replacing it with a heat pump seems the obvious choice (although I accept oil may not be expensive for ever, but I sure am glad we are currently not exposed to those prices going into winter).

ka7e

I think the article is rather misleading as it seems to refer to A2A heat pumps (it pictures Bosch Home Comfort) rather than the wet systems that are being subsidised here. Europe got the heat wave before us and that led to the demand for more cooling systems. If supplies can be met, I think the demand for A2A in the UK will replace some of the shortfall in ASHPs.

The_Green_Hornet

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82152204#Comment_82152204

I have a suspicion that a lot of people are installing A2A heat pumps for air conditioning in the UK but keeping their gas boiler for heating and hot water so it won't have much of an impact on the replacement statistics.

greenbee

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82151615#Comment_82151615

I made the swap in June, having decided that the cost of refilling the tank in April (which is when I booked the installation) would make a significant dent in the investment in the ASHP. I'm enjoying not having oil fumes blowing into the house and garden, the space that the tank took up now has water butts on it, and the hot water is taking about 2kWh of solar-generated electricity to heat the full tank (leaving me more for export to pay for the heating over the winter!). I haven't turned the heating on yet as we have builders and there's no point heating the outside, but am looking forward to a stable temperature in the house, and not having to worry about a. when to top up and b. the cost of it.

My installer says he's been flat out all year, so some of the issues with uptake may well be to do with capacity on the part of installers.

stripling

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82152204#Comment_82152204

No it's not and no it doesn't.

The image is the Bosch Home Comfort factory - it manufactures a whole bunch of different things including heat pumps, gas boilers and cooling systems. Worcester Bosch is the same group btw.

The majority of Europe has air-to-water systems. A2A tend to be in the south - Spain/Italy/Greece - but they've had them for absolutely years and didn't call them heat pumps. Heat pumps are pretty 'normalised' in most of Europe.

Sweden and the rest of the Nordics have been into air-to-water heat pumps for years, as has Germany and many other parts of Europe. They all offered subsidies for installation. Some, because they use fan coils instead of radiators, can supply cooling as well as heat.

Britain has two big problems:

1. business lobbyists whining about 'costs/profits' etc., (eg house builders)
2. Fossil-fuel funded lobby groups and political organisations and their misinformation media outlets.

QrizB

I'll just note as an aside that it's extremely on-brand for the Guardian to have a typo in the URL 😆

stripling

I just thought of a third problem with heat pump uptake in Britain:

Policy feebleness and constant backtracking:

For instance not sticking to a 'no new gas heating installations after X date' policy

No clear public information and energy consumption labelling.

No strong and clear consumer rights standards - with quick redress.

I saw all the above in Sweden. They used a carrot and stick approach - I've said it before about heat pump tumble dryers - they inform and educate (literally with stalls in shopping centres & on TV etc) and then legislate strongly (banned the sale of all other types of tumble dryers) and fast.

michaels

I am not sure but perhaps we are unique in bundling a lot of social costs that night normally be part of taxation directly into our electricity prices leaving gas largely untouched which gas made this crucial price ratio unattractive for heat pump take up