Worrying slowdown in the sales Heat Pumps in 2026

silverwhistle

I think you may have taken my rather off-the-cuff remark more seriously than it warranted!

It was following Magnitio's post and really based on the fact that the narrowing gap (we hope..) between gas and electric will naturally incentivise what we want.

Although banning gas boilers some time ago would have helped I think you are somewhat optimistic that this is a practical political move for any more progressive party. Nobody needs telling how negative and vituperative the right wing media is, and how easily led some voters are.

We definitely need carrots too, but I'm going ahead without benefit of anything other than the zero rate of VAT which applies until next April.

michaels

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82168916#Comment_82168916

Only saving grace is that as with solar panels, without the whole MCS malarky heat pump installs will likely increase by much less than the 7.5k 'grant'.

stripling

@silverwhistle I think you may have taken my rather off-the-cuff remark more seriously than it warranted!

It was following Magnitio's post and really based on the fact that the narrowing gap (we hope..) between gas and electric will naturally incentivise what we want.

Well, yeah. But then 'more seriously' etc., doesn't really apply. Sadly.

The gap is only narrowing because of Trump's gangster behaviour - it needs an actual policy direction. Without the BUS grant heat pump sales will diminish even more.

We need steady policy. This was what I saw in the Nordics - big carrots and strong sticks. And a clearly sign posted policy plan that's not going to change every 5 minutes. This both attracts business investment and gives confidence all round that it's not going to change. It also demonstrates confidence in governing. Flakes only get to rise when there's no clear direction from any party.

Too true about our media too…. very depressing.

Like I said before, a lot of people like me won't be able to afford a heat pump without the grant. Loan repayments become too unmanageable. It's the volume of sales that makes it all turn a corner.

Magnitio

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82170130#Comment_82170130

It wasn't entirely a flippant comment about increasing tax on gas and oil boilers. We have numerous taxes on items that are harmful to health and the environment, such as tobacco, alcohol, sugary drinks, petrol/diesel, flying, plastics etc. For most of these, people have a choice to stop or reduce their consumption. With heating it is slightly different: if the tax on boilers was increased, old and inefficient boilers might be repaired and used for longer. If the tax on gas and oil was increased, it would have a significant impact on the poor and elderly.

Germany, France and Poland use a stick to incentivise those who can afford to change to low carbon heating and a carrot for those who cannot. For example, France has banned the installation of new oil-fired boilers and heavily taxes fossil gas. High-income households receive zero direct grant money. For the lowest-income category the government covers up to 80-90% of the costs of a new heat pump. These schemes are not without issue, but change is often difficult.

stripling

France has just announced an acceleration and augmentation of its plans to decarbonise in response to the US/Israel war on Iran.

The French government has announced the measures of its plan to accelerate electrification:

• a ban on gas boilers in new houses from the end of 2026
• increased support for replacing old heating with heat pumps
• 100 regions will pilot comprehensive heat transition plans to phase out gas by 2030

The objectives are to: 

• strengthen the country's energy independence, 
• to sustainably reduce energy expenditure for households, businesses and public services, 
• to participate in the reindustrialization of France, by continuing the transformation of the economy.

"Scaling up will also involve installing 1 million heat pumps per year by 2030. According to the government, this increase in capacity should reduce heating costs while supporting a French industrial sector."

EVs

"For low-income households, 

social leasing

 (cars with moderate monthly rental payments) is set to resume in June with an additional 50,000 electric vehicles. A new program is also planned for high-mileage drivers in the middle class, including home care workers, caregivers, nurses, tradespeople, employees, and public servants, with an additional 50,000 subsidized electric vehicles starting in 2026.

There's lots more, including for industry. It's a no-brainer as they say - we need to decarbonise and fossil fuel dependency is a huge problem.

tfhnota

May be the wrong way round, give them five grand if they agree to have their gas connection permanently removed and let them use that to fit a heat pump, giving them the power rather than the installers.

MWT

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/82171327#Comment_82171327

I suspect that many would just install cheap panel heaters and use the rest of the £5k to pay their electricity bill for a few years …