Have we ever been in a worse car buying era I don't know where to turn next.

motorguy

letom said:

born_again said:

History is littered with changes of modes of transport.
Never has so much polarized opinion by groups that have never tried other means got to the point that total FUD is posted..

The reason it is polarising is because the public are being forced to move from a mode of transport today that works for 100% of needs to another that does not. You would get the same polarisation if the government forced people to go back to dumb phones. You can't keep trying to convince people that they are actually stupid and an EV is actually better than what they use today, when what they have today fulfils all their needs.

For a new product to be adopted by customers it needs to be solving something the old product lacked, something important enough that the consumer cares enough about. What unmet consumer need is an EV solving?

They're not though are they?

There is absolutely no requirement for anyone to move to an EV today.

The fears around EVs today are range anxiety and charging ability.

If people can actually get their heads around not actually needing something that can do 600 miles without refuelling then that would be a great starter for 10.  Over on Pistonheads these debates get quite heated and usually amount to "well i simply must have a car that does 700 miles on a single fill".  Why?  Do you actually ever do 700 miles without stopping because that would be pretty dangerous.  

And i dont think EVs have to meet an unmet need.  Diesels didnt and they became pretty prevalent.

motorguy

RogerPensionGuy said:

On a side note for anyone wanting to buy an EV. 

I just spend 20 minutes on Autotrader. 

I filled the filter with EV only, year 2024 to new, milage to a maximum of 500 miles and various minimum & maximum prices as required.

Plenty of brand new cars where buyer will be the 1st keeper at often 10 to 20% off the RRP, amazing how they can sell these cars way below RRP.

If being 2nd keeper and 10 miles on the clock doesn't bother you, plenty at 20, 25, 30 & 33% off RRP I noticed.

Altho I'm reluctant to have an EV due public charging logistics and fuel cost becoming double my current ICE car, at 33% off a lease made up RRP number, even I may buy one, I'll keep trawling and if a nice spec EV becomes available at 40% off RRP, then yeah I'll buy one and just manage it.

From the environment stand point a poor outcome as I'll only buy a real world 350+ miles range EV whick is far too heavy and its efficiency obviously poor due weight, so a loose loose outcome, but a new hi spec EV is a nice vehicle in my opinion. 

Pre COVID - 20% discounts on ICE cars had got to be almost the norm.  We got 25% off a brand new £38K BMW in 2019.

Why do you need such a high range?

RogerPensionGuy

motorguy said:

RogerPensionGuy said:

On a side note for anyone wanting to buy an EV. 

I just spend 20 minutes on Autotrader. 

I filled the filter with EV only, year 2024 to new, milage to a maximum of 500 miles and various minimum & maximum prices as required.

Plenty of brand new cars where buyer will be the 1st keeper at often 10 to 20% off the RRP, amazing how they can sell these cars way below RRP.

If being 2nd keeper and 10 miles on the clock doesn't bother you, plenty at 20, 25, 30 & 33% off RRP I noticed.

Altho I'm reluctant to have an EV due public charging logistics and fuel cost becoming double my current ICE car, at 33% off a lease made up RRP number, even I may buy one, I'll keep trawling and if a nice spec EV becomes available at 40% off RRP, then yeah I'll buy one and just manage it.

From the environment stand point a poor outcome as I'll only buy a real world 350+ miles range EV whick is far too heavy and its efficiency obviously poor due weight, so a loose loose outcome, but a new hi spec EV is a nice vehicle in my opinion. 

Pre COVID - 20% discounts on ICE cars had got to be almost the norm.  We got 25% off a brand new £38K BMW in 2019.

Why do you need such a high range?

I want a high range as I would probably keep car a long while and don't want to fast charge it for battery health and no home charging possibilities. 

So with a heavy EV car 350+ mile range would allow easier opportunities to moderate charge, but then time limits on chargers means I'll have to drive car to avoid fines.

One basic need is way behind the curve, enough charging facilities and these should cost no more than using petrol or diesel.

For me personally, not enough chargers and about double the equivalent petrol or diesel price, so I would need 40% off current EV RRPs, I would buy a few different EVs, but currently only 30% off RRP, so I'll keep watching.

Another issue for current EVs is new technology batteries are well on their way and we could easily see 500 mile range cars in just a few years which will make these current EVs with 200/220 mile real range not very sort after.

Sarahspangles

According to DVLA, 16% of new car registrations in 2023 are zero-emission cars. 16% stands out for me as it’s the tipping point on the standard curve used to monitor adoption of new technologies. At 16%, innovators and early adopters are now using a technology and its diffusing into the larger ‘early majority’ group, who are themselves ahead of the 50% in the ‘late majority’ and ‘laggard’ groups (laggards also make up 16%).

The thing I remember from change management training is that it’s a waste of time trying to persuade the late/laggard group that they need to react. To speed up change, incentivising the ‘early majority’ is more productive. The earlier adopters are more likely to be willing to adapt to change than sceptics, they will work with you. Sceptics need to see they're a minority and change is inevitable.

What I think is interesting about the move to zero emission vehicles is that there’s an option for people to shift to a different mode of transport if they’re priced out of ownership, either directly - the cost of buying - or indirectly because their housing situation won’t support charging. I think it’s more important to fix public transport than simply focus on charging stations. It’s certainly not as simple as trends like the shift to mobile phones or digital TV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

Mildly_Miffed

motorguy said:

Mildly_Miffed said:

motorguy said:

Choice here in N. Ireland is extremely limited also.

No more limited than anywhere else in the country.

The range of new cars available is identical.

Travel to view/collect a used car might not be quite so straightforward, but it's still eminently possible.

There's no hassle with import or registration. In fact, if you wanted to import from anywhere else in Europe, it's easier.

Limited in the sense that there are cars i cant even test drive here in NI, because there are none available.

Yeah if i'd be happy to organise a flight and either drive it back or fly back and have it trailered here then yes, very doable.

We did that with my FILs Renault a few years back.  

It may come to that again.

How about dealers in the republic?

This is what inevitably happens when you live in a province with the population of a city, separated from the rest of the country by sea.

letom

Sarahspangles said:

According to DVLA, 16% of new car registrations in 2023 are zero-emission cars. 16% stands out for me as it’s the tipping point on the standard curve used to monitor adoption of new technologies. At 16%, innovators and early adopters are now using a technology and its diffusing into the larger ‘early majority’ group, who are themselves ahead of the 50% in the ‘late majority’ and ‘laggard’ groups (laggards also make up 16%).

The thing I remember from change management training is that it’s a waste of time trying to persuade the late/laggard group that they need to react. To speed up change, incentivising the ‘early majority’ is more productive. The earlier adopters are more likely to be willing to adapt to change than sceptics, they will work with you. Sceptics need to see they're a minority and change is inevitable.

What I think is interesting about the move to zero emission vehicles is that there’s an option for people to shift to a different mode of transport if they’re priced out of ownership, either directly - the cost of buying - or indirectly because their housing situation won’t support charging. I think it’s more important to fix public transport than simply focus on charging stations. It’s certainly not as simple as trends like the shift to mobile phones or digital TV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

I wouldn't apply this methodology to EVs simply because 16% hasn't been reached by consumers moving to the new tech because they want to but are being heavily forced/pushed to it. If there were no tax breaks on EVs or increased taxes on ICE vehicles EVs would be no where near 16% of sales. Evidence? Private registrations, which are already a small number of EVs are down year on year, i.e. when you strip out government incentives there's actually little demand for EVs.

In normal markets you would see the transition accelerate, as people realise the new product is better than the old. At best, EVs are slightly worse than ICE for getting you from A to B, so adoption is never going to accelerate unless the government throw more money to push people or tax ICE more. Ideally EVs would actually be priced at 30-50% of an ICE vehicle, inferior products are usually priced lower. I would accept a worse experience if I were paying half the price, but right now we're being asked to pay the same or more for something that makes my journey more complicated - it doesn't make sense. It's one of the reason EVs have increased in adoption in China, they are significantly cheaper than ICE.

Nebulous2

It's over 16% now. In November 25.1% of registrations were EVs with them also having 18.7%  of the market for the year to date. 

Cars were an extremely liberating experience in the 50s / 60s / 70s, and we've developed a huge emotional attachment to them. 

That's come at a huge cost however, in the way our towns and villages have been designed for cars at the expense of people. 

10s of thousands of people die from lung disease from vehicle emissions in urban areas every year. Many of them don't drive or have access to a vehicle themselves.

It comes down to a stark choice. How far does someone's right to drive what they want, where they want, trump someone else's right to breathe? 

I've been convinced for a while that many people will simply be priced out of cars. That's happening anyway, regardless of the shift to EVs. Many youngsters don't learn to drive, or learn to drive much later, because of cost. Half a million more cars were scrapped last year, than were registered. 

If you're driving very seldom it works out cheaper to hire than to own, because of increased fixed costs, in purchasing, insuring and maintaining cars. 

I had an EV for 3 years on a lease. I can't get a home charger. I couldn't believe how good it was to drive, and running costs were decent, despite not having access to EV tariffs. Ultimately the lack of public charging locally ground me down, mainly due to broken chargers, and when the lease was up it went back.

We also have another vehicle and are currently trying -yet again - to get by with one vehicle. 

WellKnownSid

RogerPensionGuy said:

Another issue for current EVs is new technology batteries are well on their way and we could easily see 500 mile range cars in just a few years which will make these current EVs with 200/220 mile real range not very sort after.

Most cell suppliers and some manufacturers are experimenting with high capacity, fast charging, low cost designs which will resolve the problem once and for all.  All are easily achievable just not in the same battery.  Yet.  Even if this breakthrough was available right now it wouldn't be productionised, and in new cars and (more importantly) in the much greater second hand car market in any volume for some years to come.  When the day eventually comes that EVs can be powered by a $20 battery that lasts 1,000 miles, then you'd obviously just go out and replace the one in your current EV - something which has already been done e.g. 30kWh leafs upgraded to 62kWh.

More likely you will see incremental improvements in capacity, charging performance and range over time which will be priced accordingly (all that R&D needs to be paid back) and hence the impact on current EV owners will be smaller.  The bigger impact will be on those still driving around in petrol or diesel cars, but again this is years and years off.

Given that the average length of ownership of any car in the UK is meant to be around four years, those that "won't be seen dead in an inferior electric vehicle" really don't need to worry... this might not be something they need to even think about for their next 4, 5, or even 6 cars.

Sarahspangles

letom said:

Sarahspangles said:

According to DVLA, 16% of new car registrations in 2023 are zero-emission cars. 16% stands out for me as it’s the tipping point on the standard curve used to monitor adoption of new technologies. At 16%, innovators and early adopters are now using a technology and its diffusing into the larger ‘early majority’ group, who are themselves ahead of the 50% in the ‘late majority’ and ‘laggard’ groups (laggards also make up 16%).

The thing I remember from change management training is that it’s a waste of time trying to persuade the late/laggard group that they need to react. To speed up change, incentivising the ‘early majority’ is more productive. The earlier adopters are more likely to be willing to adapt to change than sceptics, they will work with you. Sceptics need to see they're a minority and change is inevitable.

What I think is interesting about the move to zero emission vehicles is that there’s an option for people to shift to a different mode of transport if they’re priced out of ownership, either directly - the cost of buying - or indirectly because their housing situation won’t support charging. I think it’s more important to fix public transport than simply focus on charging stations. It’s certainly not as simple as trends like the shift to mobile phones or digital TV.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

I wouldn't apply this methodology to EVs simply because 16% hasn't been reached by consumers moving to the new tech because they want to but are being heavily forced/pushed to it. If there were no tax breaks on EVs or increased taxes on ICE vehicles EVs would be no where near 16% of sales. Evidence? Private registrations, which are already a small number of EVs are down year on year, i.e. when you strip out government incentives there's actually little demand for EVs.

In normal markets you would see the transition accelerate, as people realise the new product is better than the old. At best, EVs are slightly worse than ICE for getting you from A to B, so adoption is never going to accelerate unless the government throw more money to push people or tax ICE more. Ideally EVs would actually be priced at 30-50% of an ICE vehicle, inferior products are usually priced lower. I would accept a worse experience if I were paying half the price, but right now we're being asked to pay the same or more for something that makes my journey more complicated - it doesn't make sense. It's one of the reason EVs have increased in adoption in China, they are significantly cheaper than ICE.

I think you have a point, but I’d also like to see an analysis of new car registrations which factors in the impact of the pandemic. I recall that production dropped and second hand prices rose for a while. Some people drove less for the duration, which may have deferred the point at which a major component failed entailing replacement of the vehicle.

There’s also been an accelerated shift to home working, which hasn’t entirely reversed and seems likely to be a permanent change. It may in the long term affect decisions about where people choose to live, though of course only those who have an option get that choice. Small sample size, but I know some working age couples who have gone down to one car as they can choose their office days.

henry24

Nebulous2 while it's ok saying what percentage of new cars are EV how many have actually been sold to a real customer and not just registered to get the numbers up. The real test will be the figures for January and February