How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Interesting tweet by Tobias Ellwood MP saying "the free market experiment is over" and "the reset begins" as he endorses Sunak for PM.

Any ideas as to what that might mean?

Probably that conspiracy theorists are going to try to attach spurious subtext to individual words in that statement.

What does "the free market experiment is over", coming from a Conservative MP, mean to your non-conspiratorial mind?

He was referring to the ideology of post-Brexit deregulation, and other policies such as slashing corporation tax aimed at transforming the UK into Singapore on Thames. The clue was in the second part of the (now deleted) tweet:

Tobias Ellwood was a remainer and remained opposed to us leaving the single market as part of Brexit (I believe he supports us rejoining the single market). He would not have been a fan of his party's lurch to the right and adoption of neoliberalist ideologies embraced under Johnson and Truss, which were leading us into greater and greater regulatory divergence. Hence his rejoicing at the 'reset' to a "centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government".

Millyonare

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

Interesting tweet by Tobias Ellwood MP saying "the free market experiment is over" and "the reset begins" as he endorses Sunak for PM.

Any ideas as to what that might mean?

Isn't it quite simple? The experiment he refers to is Trussonomics - the idea that you can hand-wave more money to provide tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals and companies in the hope that they then generate enough extra lift in economic output to make it pay off in the future. And it's over because the new chancellor is returning to more traditional Conservative values of fiscal discipline.

Nothing wrong with giving the British people more of their own money back. It is not the Tory party's money.

Massive tax cuts are happening (post-pandemic) all over the world right now. The US just handed out $600 billion of free tax cash, over 10 times bigger than Truss's tax handout. What's more, the US state has significantly more debt.

What Remainer Ellwood's creepy tweet really means is that he thinks a Remainer PM is about to enter No.10 and deliver austerity, even higher taxes, and more state control of people's money.

hallmark

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Interesting tweet by Tobias Ellwood MP saying "the free market experiment is over" and "the reset begins" as he endorses Sunak for PM.

Any ideas as to what that might mean?

Probably that conspiracy theorists are going to try to attach spurious subtext to individual words in that statement.

What does "the free market experiment is over", coming from a Conservative MP, mean to your non-conspiratorial mind?

He was referring to the ideology of post-Brexit deregulation, and other policies such as slashing corporation tax aimed at transforming the UK into Singapore on Thames. The clue was in the second part of the (now deleted) tweet:

Tobias Ellwood was a remainer and remained opposed to us leaving the single market as part of Brexit (I believe he supports us rejoining the single market). He would not have been a fan of his party's lurch to the right and adoption of neoliberalist ideologies embraced under Johnson and Truss, which were leading us into greater and greater regulatory divergence. Hence his rejoicing at the 'reset' to a "centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government".

Gotta love Sunak talking about fiscal responsibility having been the chancellor that presided over the economic ruin Truss/Kwarteng got the blame for.

He's vile and will probably get the job he's after.

Millyonare

hallmark said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Interesting tweet by Tobias Ellwood MP saying "the free market experiment is over" and "the reset begins" as he endorses Sunak for PM.

Any ideas as to what that might mean?

Probably that conspiracy theorists are going to try to attach spurious subtext to individual words in that statement.

What does "the free market experiment is over", coming from a Conservative MP, mean to your non-conspiratorial mind?

He was referring to the ideology of post-Brexit deregulation, and other policies such as slashing corporation tax aimed at transforming the UK into Singapore on Thames. The clue was in the second part of the (now deleted) tweet:

Tobias Ellwood was a remainer and remained opposed to us leaving the single market as part of Brexit (I believe he supports us rejoining the single market). He would not have been a fan of his party's lurch to the right and adoption of neoliberalist ideologies embraced under Johnson and Truss, which were leading us into greater and greater regulatory divergence. Hence his rejoicing at the 'reset' to a "centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government".

Gotta love Sunak talking about fiscal responsibility having been the chancellor that presided over the economic ruin Truss/Kwarteng got the blame for.

He's vile and will probably get the job he's after.

It is vital to note the UK is not in "economic ruin" whatsoever.

The UK is the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (source: IMF), just about the lowest state debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, wholesale inflation has started to fall, strong wage growth, strong house prices, and record EU exports.

masonic

Millyonare said:

hallmark said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Interesting tweet by Tobias Ellwood MP saying "the free market experiment is over" and "the reset begins" as he endorses Sunak for PM.

Any ideas as to what that might mean?

Probably that conspiracy theorists are going to try to attach spurious subtext to individual words in that statement.

What does "the free market experiment is over", coming from a Conservative MP, mean to your non-conspiratorial mind?

He was referring to the ideology of post-Brexit deregulation, and other policies such as slashing corporation tax aimed at transforming the UK into Singapore on Thames. The clue was in the second part of the (now deleted) tweet:

Tobias Ellwood was a remainer and remained opposed to us leaving the single market as part of Brexit (I believe he supports us rejoining the single market). He would not have been a fan of his party's lurch to the right and adoption of neoliberalist ideologies embraced under Johnson and Truss, which were leading us into greater and greater regulatory divergence. Hence his rejoicing at the 'reset' to a "centrist, stable, fiscally responsible Government".

Gotta love Sunak talking about fiscal responsibility having been the chancellor that presided over the economic ruin Truss/Kwarteng got the blame for.

He's vile and will probably get the job he's after.

It is vital to note the UK is not in "economic ruin" whatsoever.

The UK is the fastest-growing economy in the G7 (source: IMF), just about the lowest state debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, wholesale inflation has started to fall, strong wage growth, strong house prices, and record EU exports.

It depends whether you are looking at recent short term performance (where we are bouncing back from a lower level), or over a longer period, such as comparing back to pre-pandemic levels:

I would stress that it is not bad news in the slightest that we are essentially back to the level of our pre-pandemic peak.

InvesterJones

Millyonare said:

What Remainer Ellwood's creepy tweet really means is that he thinks a Remainer PM is about to enter No.10

Wasn't our latest PM also remain?

Type_45

How hidden financial risks brought down Liz Truss

British prime minister Liz Truss is out after a shambolic six weeks. Her government was undone by a violent market reaction to its budget-busting proposal that sent interest rates soaring amid a selloff that, at first glance, looked like a classic example of capital fleeing a poorly run country.

But as we've learned more about what was going on, it looks less like a standard emerging markets crisis and more like a complex series of events tied to U.K. pensions.

Why it matters: In jittery times like these, previously little-known risks in the financial system can bubble up seemingly from nowhere — with seismic economic and political consequences.

State of play: The initial selloff of U.K. government bonds following the Truss "mini-budget" announcement reflected fundamental forces. The proposal implied higher budget deficits, and more Bank of England rate hikes, lay ahead.

• But that initial selloff triggered distress among British pensions that use a strategy known as "liability-driven investments" involving derivatives on long-term bonds.
• That forced fire sales by the pensions, which created a vicious cycle of falling bond prices, higher rates, and more forced sales, until the Bank of England intervened in late September.
• This dynamic — and the on-then-off central bank intervention — created jaw-dropping swings in U.K. interest rates in recent weeks, fuelling discontent with the government.

So why are we rehashing this now? Because it's an example of the underneath-the-radar aspects of the financial system. In moments of fragility, they can explode in ways that have larger implications.

• Consider the fall of 2007, when "structured investment vehicles" buying subprime mortgage debt were at risk of failure, triggering massive losses for the big banks that created them and an attempted U.S. Treasury intervention to bail them out.
• Or in January 2008, when French bank Societe Generale discovered billions in losses by a rogue trader and caused a global market selloff as it unwound those trades. The Federal Reserve did an emergency 0.75 percentage point rate cut the next day, unaware of the unique circumstances.
• In May 2010, a "flash crash" sent markets down 9% within a few minutes, as the world feared a Greek debt default. That helped prompt the European Central Bank to back government debt over the ensuing weekend.

In each of these cases, the underlying problems would have been exposed eventually. Big American banks were exposed to massive mortgage-related losses in 2007; a severe recession took hold in 2008; and the ECB needed to step up to prevent the eurozone from falling apart in 2010.

• But the sense of urgency created by idiosyncratic crisis dynamics sped those policy shifts along, for better or worse.
• Similarly, there were deep-seated problems with the Truss government's approach to fiscal policy that likely would have revealed themselves sooner or later. But the pensions crisis put them front and centre.

The bottom line: In times of financial stress, events can come out of nowhere that bring down economies and — as the British have seen — governments.

https://www.axios.com/2022/10/20/liz-truss-financial-crisis# 

hallmark

InvesterJones said:

Millyonare said:

What Remainer Ellwood's creepy tweet really means is that he thinks a Remainer PM is about to enter No.10

Wasn't our latest PM also remain?

She was but she didn't Remain for very long.

Type_45

Politics is but a Punch & Judy show to provide the illusion we have a say as we are kept placated with bread and circuses.  But I will say this:

It's sad how history remembers certain people.

The UK is bankrupt.  The house of cards is about to fall.  We are overcome with a sovereign debt crisis.  Truss didn't stand there like a deer in the headlights.  She tried to do something.  Tried to change course.  Her actions unfortunately pulled back the curtain of the debt crisis monster lurking behind.  We all know it's there but Truss unwittingly shone a light on it and the house of cards almost fell in an instant but for the magic money printer whirring into action yet again.

Chamberlain is another.  A hero who did everything he could to avoid another ruinous war.  He should be remembered far more kindly than he is.  

retiringtoosoon

I’m glad you’ve got such a good …. handle ….. on the situation.