How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Gary1984

Is it possible for gilts to be in a speculative bubble given it's known exactly what they'll pay and when?

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

oz0707

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Just FYI be careful what you believe about unemployment. I think the govt changed the rules so universal credit recipients are not classed as unemployed. Look at the total amount on out of work benefits. 

masonic

oz0707 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Just FYI be careful what you believe about unemployment. I think the govt changed the rules so universal credit recipients are not classed as unemployed. Look at the total amount on out of work benefits. 

Universal credit is not solely an out of work benefit. It includes people who are unemployed, but also those who are in full time employment and having their wages subsidised by the taxpayer. About 21% are considered fully employed, so changing jobs would not affect the statistics. A further 26% are considered unable to work due to their current circumstances (disability, injury, ill health etc). When you compare the number remaining with the number of job vacancies in the UK, the numbers are quite similar. Hence businesses have complaining of a shortage of labour. One could of course argue that there is a mismatch between the job vacancies on offer and the skills of those seeking work.

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Being the least ill patient on the ward doesn't make one healthy.

The hyperthetical ward is full of states which have terminal illness in the form of sovereign debt resulting from debt-based economic systems which can only keep themselves going by creating yet more debt. They cannot recover.

Rattusnorvegicus

When will the bear market stop? 3 years after the first rate rise to 18 months after the last is my guess.

US market :- I'm waiting on rates peaking, the sell off usually happens AFTER, like 1929,1953,1957,1960,(1969 got started before peak),(1973-75 over by peak), 1980,1987,2000,2007,(2022 got started before peak).

long term multi-decade bonds look tasty when above 6% just for the early pre-decade sell, and an easy double up on capital.

To me it looks like the 1946 bond bear market... with a new 76 year interest rate cycle. You probably need to be under 38 to benefit in pension age from when the peak occurs in the cycle just starting.

Will this all happen? No idea, toss a coin... until someone UK or US announces they're holding rates i'm in wait n see mode unless something i had on the shopping list in 2010 has suffered a 60%-80% decrease in share price. April 2023 is when i'll have another peek at the market conditions,and then January 2025. Until then i'm just sitting, watching and adjusting modelling of stuff on the shopping list to see how things are lining up.

Take my two penny worth with a large pinch of salt.

Linton

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Being the least ill patient on the ward doesn't make one healthy.

The hyperthetical ward is full of states which have terminal illness in the form of sovereign debt resulting from debt-based economic systems which can only keep themselves going by creating yet more debt. They cannot recover.

The debt must be owed to someone.  Not everyone can be in debt.  The total globally must be zero.  In our case most of our debt is owed to us in the form of our opensions, insurance policies, banks. gilt funds etc.  And of course we own other countries's debts.

Thumbs_Up

Millyonare said:

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure.  We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

We are a tribal nation and each tribe has their own axe to grind. Only In times of world wars we put our difference to one side and rally to the greater good. You may ask me to explain oneself but that would take me out of the realms of this forum.

Ok, just one example, it always perplexes me that because the Celtic nations can’t win anything in sport they don’t want the English to win anything in sport. 

DannyCarey

Looking at my FIRE tracker, at the end of last year I was at 29%, 10 months on and I am at ....29%

After diligently investing and making more money. In the long run I am sure it will work out. Cheaper units at least... 

Type_45

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Being the least ill patient on the ward doesn't make one healthy.

The hyperthetical ward is full of states which have terminal illness in the form of sovereign debt resulting from debt-based economic systems which can only keep themselves going by creating yet more debt. They cannot recover.

The debt must be owed to someone.  Not everyone can be in debt.  The total globally must be zero.  In our case most of our debt is owed to us in the form of our opensions, insurance policies, banks. gilt funds etc.  And of course we own other countries's debts.

The debt is owed to future generations. Your children, grandchildren, great grandchildren etc. And also our current generation.

Politicians and banksters decide what to spend public money on, they don't consult us, they tell us. And then they spend the money and put it on the tab.

And then the next lot of politicians say how irresponsible they were, promise to be different, and do the same. 

That money is going into someone's pockets. We don't know who, but we know who's having to pay for it.

And there will always be reasons to do it all over again as soon as the boots are filled of the previous "crisis". A new pandemic, a war, climate change etc etc.