How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

$454 billion!  How many more times can they (or any nation) do this?

Japan’s upcoming economic stimulus package will have an overall size of 67.1 trillion yen ($454 billion) with 25.1 trillion yen coming from state funds, Kyodo news reported Wednesday.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/japan-compiles-67-1-trillion-yen-stimulus-package-kyodo-reports?utm_content=economics&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-economics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&leadSource=uverify wall

oz0707

masonic said:

oz0707 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Just FYI be careful what you believe about unemployment. I think the govt changed the rules so universal credit recipients are not classed as unemployed. Look at the total amount on out of work benefits. 

Universal credit is not solely an out of work benefit. It includes people who are unemployed, but also those who are in full time employment and having their wages subsidised by the taxpayer. About 21% are considered fully employed, so changing jobs would not affect the statistics. A further 26% are considered unable to work due to their current circumstances (disability, injury, ill health etc). When you compare the number remaining with the number of job vacancies in the UK, the numbers are quite similar. Hence businesses have complaining of a shortage of labour. One could of course argue that there is a mismatch between the job vacancies on offer and the skills of those seeking work.

Yes I'm not splitting hairs but just saying I wouldn't completely trust the unemployment numbers. The spectator published a graph the other week which shows a decline in jobseekers claimants and a rise in universal credit claimants. There's also the problem of people adjusting their hours to keep within the ballpark of UC. Then a look at the student numbers would be interesting. University students must be close to an all time high? Also basically illegal to leave education before 18 now so a lot of kids on waste of time college courses. 

Millyonare

Pretty much every major G10 country worldwide has been gaming the unemployment / employment figures for decades. UK no exception there.

As an anecdote, I don't know anyone, young or old, rich or poor, who does not have a job right now. Not one. Everyone is in work. At least in the bottom half of the UK.

Funny you should mention those types of college courses. A mate's 17yo has just embarked on a 2-year course for baking cakes. There's even a sub-module on how to apply sprinkles.

sevenhills

I think this might be what you were referring to, although I don't like quoting the Spectator, as they spin right wing news.

oz0707

That's the one. 

mooneysaver

Millyonare said:

As an anecdote, I don't know anyone, young or old, rich or poor, who does not have a job right now. Not one. Everyone is in work. At least in the bottom half of the UK.

I know two people who don't have a job.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Who to believe?

Never underestimate Britain's collective culture of self-loathing, defeatism, and self-inflicted decline. We as a country love the misery of predicting doom and failure. Even if the economy is the fastest-growing in the G7, among the lowest debt in the G7, near-zero unemployment, everyone who wants one has a job, rising wages and strong house prices, we cannot resist the absurd hysteria of "crisis" and alike. No other G7 country is raising major taxes post-pandemic. Many are cutting taxes. Most have more debt. The UK is desperate to tax and talk itself into a recession. We are a (very) bizarre country. It is unfathomable 

Being the least ill patient on the ward doesn't make one healthy.

The hyperthetical ward is full of states which have terminal illness in the form of sovereign debt resulting from debt-based economic systems which can only keep themselves going by creating yet more debt. They cannot recover.

The debt must be owed to someone.  Not everyone can be in debt.  The total globally must be zero.  In our case most of our debt is owed to us in the form of our opensions, insurance policies, banks. gilt funds etc.  And of course we own other countries's debts.

The debt is owed to future generations. Your children, grandchildren, great grandchildren etc. And also our current generation.

You mean they will benefit from the current debt?! (That's what owed to means). Nice to know the increased borrowing costs are going somewhere like that

Type_45

Capital fleeing the Chinese stock market inflating the Western markets?

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Capital fleeing the Chinese stock market inflating the Western markets?

No. Guess again.

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Capital fleeing the Chinese stock market inflating the Western markets?

Big money has been fleeing China for a year or two. The MSCI India Index is up +7% in the past year, for example. Whether it's cyclical or permanent remains to be seen.