How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

Malthusian said:

Russel Napier said:

The disappointing performance of gold this year is somewhat clouded by the strong dollar. In yen, euro or sterling, gold has done pretty well already."

So if you piggy-back the performance of gold onto the rise of the dollar against the pound, a 20% dump over the last two years turns into a mere 7.5% plop. At a time when gold should in theory be doing very well. (The FTSE All World TR is up 20% over the same period in Sterling even after 2022's fall.)
If you have to use the performance of a fiat currency to make gold look good (well, slightly less bad), doesn't that rather defeat the purpose of buying shiny metal?

Re the USD:  The dollar is rising against almost all currencies because a global credit crunch is taking place.  There is a rush for liquidity.  And the USD is simply the most trusted of all the failing currencies.  The USD does not usually rise at the same time as commodities.  And it is currently having its biggest tear upwards in history.  This tells us something very bad is happening.

Re gold:  No, gold shouldn't "in theory be doing well".  Gold's two traditional headwinds are a strong USD and rising interest rates.  Both of which are happening.  The price of gold is inversely affected by interest rates.  The higher the rates, folks sell gold to meet their costs.  Lower rates, folks buy gold.  As and when the Fed pivots and lowers rates, and thus concede the US is indeed in a recession, gold should tear upwards.  If gold doesn't do so under those circumstances then I too will lose faith in it.  But those are the conditions which gold as an asset class should excel in.

Type_45

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden 

[Deleted User]

billy2shots said:

With that in mind, the s&p looks set to pop 5% in two days. They say you never see the bottom coming.  Let's see how this plays. 

5% pop in 2 days, you say?

sevenhills

Adyinvestment said:

"there are only 2 types of expert - those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know"

We should all list our expertise that allows us to comment on here, I drive a bus for a living 🤣

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Meanwhile, in the real world:


Blackouts may be imposed on cold weekday evenings, National Grid chief warns

https://news.sky.com/story/prepare-for-blackouts-on-cold-weekday-evenings-national-grid-chief-warns-12723349

billy2shots

Deleted_User said:

billy2shots said:

With that in mind, the s&p looks set to pop 5% in two days. They say you never see the bottom coming.  Let's see how this plays. 

5% pop in 2 days, you say?

At time of writing, futures were pointing at that. You've got me though, it's only 3.75% at time of writing.....

Swipe

You know it was a bullish day on the markets yesterday when our resident doomer didn't make a post on this thread

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Steve182 said:

sevenhills said:

Millyonare said

UK economic stats look pretty good.

National UK state debt is just about the lowest in the entire G7 world group.

This was our debt compared to the G20 countries in 2021, things have got worse since then, UK debt GDP is now 99.6%

It would no doubt have grown higher than 100% if our new PM clown had got her own way. Interesting that the USA is so high.  

UK debt is the 2nd lowest in the whole G7 in 2021/22. Debt is forecasted to go even lower, to 71%, by 2027.

Truss's tax budget added a miniscule 1-3% extra to that state debt (perhaps less). It was totally affordable.

But that is not a narrative people want to hear.

Meanwhile, in the real world:


Blackouts may be imposed on cold weekday evenings, National Grid chief warns

https://news.sky.com/story/prepare-for-blackouts-on-cold-weekday-evenings-national-grid-chief-warns-12723349

Those "blackout scenarios (worst case)" are modeled every winter in the UK. It's nothing new.

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden 

Biggest mega-threat out there is not a US recession, but Russia getting ready to (maybe) drop a small or medium n*clear b*mb on Ukraine. Articles are being planted everywhere (yet again) in the elite Western media this month, such as the Economist, prepping us all for that real and rising possibility. The FTSE and S&P will tank if this happens, before or after the snows of winter. We may yet see your -80% prediction (but hopefully not).

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden 

Biggest mega-threat out there is not a US recession, but Russia getting ready to (maybe) drop a small or medium n*clear b*mb on Ukraine. Articles are being planted everywhere (yet again) in the elite Western media this month, such as the Economist, prepping us all for that real and rising possibility. The FTSE and S&P will tank if this happens, before or after the snows of winter. We may yet see your -80% prediction (but hopefully not).

If you think the S&P and FTSE collapsing by -80% is a real and rising possibility, you've presumably pulled your money out of equities.