How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden 

Biggest mega-threat out there is not a US recession, but Russia getting ready to (maybe) drop a small or medium n*clear b*mb on Ukraine. Articles are being planted everywhere (yet again) in the elite Western media this month, such as the Economist, prepping us all for that real and rising possibility. The FTSE and S&P will tank if this happens, before or after the snows of winter. We may yet see your -80% prediction (but hopefully not).

If you think the S&P and FTSE collapsing by -80% is a real and rising possibility, you've presumably pulled your money out of equities. 

Will pile in the same or next day if It kicks off.

Even a hint of trouble will send the S&P flying down.

Europe this week is starting to run low on iodine pills (for radiation), as countries are quietly stockpiling them. But that hasn't spooked the markets yet. Markets so far have been very resilient.

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Type_45 said:

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

- Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
- Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden 

Biggest mega-threat out there is not a US recession, but Russia getting ready to (maybe) drop a small or medium n*clear b*mb on Ukraine. Articles are being planted everywhere (yet again) in the elite Western media this month, such as the Economist, prepping us all for that real and rising possibility. The FTSE and S&P will tank if this happens, before or after the snows of winter. We may yet see your -80% prediction (but hopefully not).

If you think the S&P and FTSE collapsing by -80% is a real and rising possibility, you've presumably pulled your money out of equities. 

Will pile in the same or next day if It kicks off.

Even a hint of trouble will send the S&P flying down.

Europe this week is starting to run low on iodine pills (for radiation), as countries are quietly stockpiling them. But that hasn't spooked the markets yet. Markets so far have been very resilient.

Are you invested in equities? If the answer is yes then you don't believe such an outcome in the war is likely. 

Iodine tablets are available on Amazon. 

Type_45

Interesting graph.

Type_45

Quite interesting too:

Prism

Plenty of people plot this kind of stuff, as though a calendar year is somehow meaningful. For many of us its a tax year, for others a company financial year. Anyway, a years results are not relevant - a multiple year period, like a decade, is more meaningful when trying to learn about historical results.

coyrls

I wondered how there could be a nearly 40% drop this year in a 60/40 portfolio, then I read "2022 is YTD Annualized".  Same for the second graph.

Prism

coyrls said:

I wondered how there could be a nearly 40% drop this year in a 60/40 portfolio, then I read "2022 is YTD Annualized".  Same for the second graph.

Good pickup - so even more irrelevant than I thought 

MK62

Prism said:

coyrls said:

I wondered how there could be a nearly 40% drop this year in a 60/40 portfolio, then I read "2022 is YTD Annualized".  Same for the second graph.

Good pickup - so even more irrelevant than I thought 

....even more so, to us in the UK, once you factor in it's also from a American perspective, rather than a UK one.

A "typical" US 60/40 portfolio, could perform very differently to a UK 60/40 version, even if invested in exactly the same assets.......the USD v GBP exchange rate might well see to that.

A "typical" (if such a thing really exists) 60/40 UK portfolio is down less than half that shown in the graph......VLS60, as a well known example, is down about 13.6% YTD.......still not great, granted, but not quite the same "disaster" picture........

Type_45

Bank of Japan announce emergency bond buying operation.

Japanese Yen heading lower.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bank-japan-conduct-emergency-bond-buying-yen-teeters-near-150-2022-10-20/ 

Type_45

We've had more gilts threads lately than Prime Ministers.