EV Discussion thread

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

Tesla's Price Cuts Are "Dangerous" For Residual Values: Kia UK Boss

Paul Philpott says Kia won't rush to match Tesla's heavy discounts of up to £8,000 in the UK.

https://insideevs.com/news/631750/tesla-price-cuts-are-dangerous-for-residual-values-kia-uk-boss/

Paul Philpott can say that Kia won't cut the EV prices, but this is not just a UK move by Tesla but all markets.
If Tesla sales increase and Kia EV sales fall, will Kia then just cease the EV product ranges and let the remaining ICE's run-out the business?  OR, will Kia do something?
The comments are rather short-termist really as the only way EV pricing overall will move is downward, as per my note earlier in the week about the technology development costs.

ABrass

JKenH said:

Tesla garners new addressable market through price cuts, incentives

While I wouldn’t  argue with the main premise of the article (that the price cuts will widen the market for Tesla cars), I continue to be amazed that websites such as Teslarati, here, still make statements such as the following: 

Despite costs increasing over the past few years for various reasons, Tesla did not seem to see a drop in demand. 

There are still a significant number of Tesla fanboi websites, (along with Tesla executives) who still cling to this narrative. 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-price-cuts-increased-addressable-market/

Because demand hasn't fallen, it just hasn't grown as fast as manufacturing capacity.

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Tesla garners new addressable market through price cuts, incentives

While I wouldn’t  argue with the main premise of the article (that the price cuts will widen the market for Tesla cars), I continue to be amazed that websites such as Teslarati, here, still make statements such as the following: 

Despite costs increasing over the past few years for various reasons, Tesla did not seem to see a drop in demand. 

There are still a significant number of Tesla fanboi websites, (along with Tesla executives) who still cling to this narrative. 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-price-cuts-increased-addressable-market/

Because demand hasn't fallen, it just hasn't grown as fast as manufacturing capacity.

I think if you look at the statistics for the last few months of 2022 you’ll find it has declined. I did explain in an earlier post that the backlog fell by 116,000 in December alone. I didn’t make that up - you can see the figures here. Based on Tesla’s Q4 figures cars were being manufactured at the end of 2022 at a rate of around 150k/month, yet the backlog fell by 116k. If new orders (sales) exceed production backlog builds up. If production exceeds sales backlog is reduced. Based on these figures net sales were around 34k. That an annualised rate of around 408k! December was a bad month because of the Chines economy and sales in the US being deferred because of the tax credits likely to be available in 2023. Whatever the reason, the fact remains that sales in December were significantly lower than in previous months and previous years. Demand had fallen. 

https://insideevs.com/news/631502/estimated-tesla-order-backlog-dec31-2022/

The decline in demand trend was apparent for several months coming to a head in December precipitating the massive cut in prices in China then in the US and Europe and again in China in January. 

Tesla was in 2022 maintaining deliveries based on a backlog of 345k units left over from 2021. The backlog may have been exacerbated by COVID issues in China but nevertheless to take it up to 476k it is reasonable to assume orders (sales) were increasing until the middle of 2022. The backlog then fell from 476k on 27 July to 74k on 31 December - down 402k! If orders (sales) had been maintained at the same level as in H1 2022 to clear that backlog in 5 months production must have been increased by almost 20k units a week. Are you saying production was expanded by that amount? 

Edit: some adjustments to text and figures. 14.47 19 Jan.

Edit 2: “new” not “net” at end of line 7.

propnut

JKenH said:

I think if you look at the statistics for the last few months of 2022 you’ll find it has declined. I did explain in an earlier 

To your point

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/electric-car-waiting-times-tumble-as-demand-slows-down/277027

and

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/10/electric-car-production-slows-drivers-opt-cheaper-models/

They are just not affordable or practical for the masses. The vast majority earn sub £40K, struggle to meet mortgage & energy payments & put food on the table. They would rather not drive a clapped out Corsa or Clio but have little choice. To expect them to be able to fork out £25K minimum on an EV is just plain silly. What's more they most likely live in apartment blocks & terraced houses with no facilities or chance of installing their own EV charger & solar which will make them reliant on commercial chargers which now cost more than they are currently paying on fuel. The reality is there are two camps in the pro EV world,  the wealthy who really have no idea of the life challenges of the have nots & the govt who really don't care.

JKenH

EV company car mileage on a par with ICE equivalents

For vehicles registered between October 2018 and October 2020, electric vehicles (EVs) covered, on average, 17,774 miles, while petrol and diesel company cars travelled 17,222 miles.

“We recently issued figures showing that the expected advantage for EVs in terms of servicing and maintenance was not yet consistently showing in our data and this again does not indicate a clear win for EVs, with a difference of only a thousand miles or so.”

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2023/01/19/ev-company-car-mileage-on-a-par-with-ice-equivalents

silverwhistle

Grumpy_chap said:

The Zoe is out for the zero NCAP. 
The MG5 and MG4 do both appeal but, again, no NCAP rating.

I'm pretty certain they now do although the MG4 didn't when it was first introduced last autumn. Have another check as it's too late for me to find any details.

JKenH

Tesla Model Y monthly payments soar by 57 per cent in a day following its drastic price drop

Despite initial positivity for consumers in the EV market, Tesla’s price drop on Model 3 and Y has caused monthly repayments for those financing one to skyrocket by 57 per cent.

As of January 17, someone financing a Model Y with a £6,000 deposit on a 36 month deal and driving 10,000 miles a year would be paying £733 compared to £463 in the seven days previous, Electrifying.com revealed.

The data comes from Tesla’s own configurator and show that as of the morning of January 17, the final payment for a Model Y dropped from £29,286 to £18,466.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/financing-a-model-y-soars-by-57-per-cent-in-a-day-following-drastic-tesla-price-drops/278058

The source is reported as electrifying.com. I had a look on the Tesla website and the current figures appear correct but I can’t check last week’s prices. I see no reason why electrifying.com would make the story up. 

https://www.tesla.com/modely/design

By comparison Leaseloco’s price for a TMY on 3 yrs/10,000 miles/year lease (£5000 deposit) comes out at £466.21/month.

https://www.leaseloco.com/car-leasing/search

I did try to pull up historic lease prices on Leaseloco but the data was not available although I do recall seeing prices just under £600/month. 

Is it possible the lease companies have adjusted the purchase price without changing residuals?

Leaseloco’s price for a VW iD4 is £451.12 on the same terms. 

Edit: a bit more on this story from the electrifying.com website:

James Baggott, editor in chief of Car Dealer Magazine, said: "We know that Cap HPI had an urgent meeting set with Tesla on Monday to discuss the reduced new prices and their forecasts for future values, so thesePCP changes are likely to be a direct result of that. 

"Cap HPI told us that they were “urgently reviewing” the Tesla Model Y prices and that an official update will be released later this month, but the fact Tesla has moved to change its finance prices so quickly clearly shows there has been a huge impact on future values as a result of these new price cuts."

https://www.electrifying.com/blog/article/tesla-turmoil-as-price-cuts-cause-finance-costs-to-leap-57-in-a-day

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

I had a look on the Tesla website and the current figures appear correct but I can’t check last week’s prices. 

I did see some very attractive business-only lease offers from Tesla in December, for vehicles ordered and delivered in December - they were silly cheap based upon the car being an alleged £60k or more car at the time.

It might almost be that they were offering hidden discounts to promote increased sales

Here is a news article that provides some comparison of TESLA lease prices versus other cars (dated a week ago):
https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/teslas-bold-price-drop-could-spark-ev-price-war-as-car-makers-try-to-keep-up/277800
Interesting, that shows the TMY cheaper to lease than the TM3.

I can't see any lease deals on the Tesla website right at this very moment as the site seems glitchy.

JKenH

Testing my nearest 10 electric car charge sites

This video from ElectricVehicleMan is going to upset some people on here. If you don’t have an EV but are thinking  of getting one watch this video.

https://youtu.be/4E0pOuhYhXA

EVM who has been into electric cars for longer than most of us drove to the 10 rapid chargers nearest his home. Why, you might ask? Well, it was a test. It didn’t go well: 6 out of the 10 sites weren’t working (often contrary to what was shown on ZapMap and the chargers own websites) and the other 4 were busy. 

“If you’re an EV evangelist, if you’re pushing them I think we need to highlight this more and more, we need to make a stink about this…”

Unfortunately this view doesn’t sit well with most EV evangelists who will quietly acknowledge the charging network could be better but also don’t want this type of opinion spread in case it puts people off moving away from ICE cars. This charging problem is not down to lack of planning on the user’s part as I have been told. There is a fundamental problem with the charging network.

Edit: I have also posted the video on the Motoring board. 

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:p

JKenH said:

I had a look on the Tesla website and the current figures appear correct but I can’t check last week’s prices. 

I did see some very attractive business-only lease offers from Tesla in December, for vehicles ordered and delivered in December - they were silly cheap based upon the car being an alleged £60k or more car at the time.

It might almost be that they were offering hidden discounts to promote increased sales

Here is a news article that provides some comparison of TESLA lease prices versus other cars (dated a week ago):
https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/teslas-bold-price-drop-could-spark-ev-price-war-as-car-makers-try-to-keep-up/277800
Interesting, that shows the TMY cheaper to lease than the TM3.

I can't see any lease deals on the Tesla website right at this very moment as the site seems glitchy.

I noticed in that article you linked the PCP deal quoted on the TMY was at £466. It now up to £733. If that adjustment feeds through into the leasing market it is going to hurt sales as cost/month is the new metric that customers consider -not list price. It seems the Tesla price cuts have had a disproportionate affect on residual values, thereby undermining any commercial benefit from cutting list prices. 

I think there are two factors at play here. The first is that because of price uncertainty/volatility and the sheer volumes coming off leases/PCP deals the motor trade no longer feel confident about taking on used Teslas. Secondly Tesla has, by cutting prices across all models, effectively moved itself out of the premium auto sector and instead of competing with BMW, Mercedes and Audi, it is pricing its cars to compete with the likes of VW, Skoda, Ford, Hyundai/Kia etc. As I mentioned before the TM3 in white is the new Mondeo. You are either a volume or a premium auto maker - it’s hard to be both.