EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

The argument is sometimes made that lower EV prices will assist migration from ICEVs. This may be true to an extent but perceived higher EV prices might be just an excuse (one of many) for those who want to remain committed to ICEVS. There is still a die-hard ICE market and several ICE sectors where there is no (currently) viable EV alternative. (How much, for example is the closest EV equivalent to a Kia Picanto? The closest  equivalent is the Fiat 500 electric which starts at £26,195 whereas the Picanto is £12,480. 

EV price cuts may inadvertently benefit Toyota and the other Japanese manufacturers who are not yet committed to them as they can maintain ICE prices and profits while their EV competitors try to undercut each other. Eventually everyone will have to move to EVS but, for the time being, there are still healthy profits in ICEs.

There are many intertwined factors here but I postulate that the reduction in EV prices will result in lower ICE prices until such time as ICE's become unsustainable.

I am keen to go to an EV but the "cost to enter" has been my big challenge.
The whole market has been distorted for the past year or so, allowing ICE and EV prices to be higher than they otherwise would.  That means the adjustment this week by Tesla is really just a correction to where the prices would have been without the exceptional events.
Automotive manufacturing may be about to return to normal, according to this article:
Carmakers signal end of shortages after two years of runaway prices (msn.com)

You may recall I'd seen a Lexus ES at £32k Sept 21 and lamented that an equivalent EV (with suitable range for my needs) was in the £50k region so it was a massive delta.
When I last looked, the same ES was £40k but the equivalent EV moved towards £60k, so still the same massive delta.  With the price cuts, the equivalent EV is back to £50k or thereabouts, so the delta has been halved.  Anyone weighing the choice between an ES / 5-Series / A4 or an EV now has less of a challenge for the EV decision.
If other EV's move down in price, then that same choice will narrow for anyone deciding between an Octavia and an EV.
So, the ICE price has to move down or stop production.

Now, ICE sales are the price profile of a mature technology.
EV sales are going to follow (IMO) the price profile of a new technology, so the EV pricing today is equivalent to the CD player in 1990 and will continually fall (in real terms) leaving the ICE as redundant as the cassette player.

But if you really wanted to get into an EV you could. What are you driving currently - isn’t it a cheap Ford? Why wouldn’t something like a used Zoe 50kWh or a 62kWh Leaf do the job for you? Does it have to be a Lexus/BMW/Audi? What does your current car have that the Zoe or Leaf lacks? 

If you really do believe in the superiority of EVs, you will work round the range issue: thousands do. Another contributor on here has an MG5 and copes fine. I have been told numerous times that charging isn’t a problem, at least not a big enough one to put anyone off getting an EV. 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

But if you really wanted to get into an EV you could. What are you driving currently - isn’t it a cheap Ford? Why wouldn’t something like a used Zoe 50kWh or a 62kWh Leaf do the job for you? Does it have to be a Lexus/BMW/Audi? What does your current car have that the Zoe or Leaf lacks? 

If you really do believe in the superiority of EVs, you will work round the range issue: thousands do. Another contributor on here has an MG5 and copes fine. I have been told numerous times that charging isn’t a problem, at least not a big enough one to put anyone off getting an EV. 

Yes, a cheap Ford currently.
In fact, I gave the cheap Focus to my Nephew and am now using the '97 Fiesta.
It really is my preference to go EV that has been why I have not upgraded the car before. 
The ES was an option that was a real contender when the offer was there - Mrs GC liked it and the price was "right" - but did not proceed because I was keen for full-EV and thought there'd be the same offer next week if I didn't go for it (which turned out to be wrong).

Yes, I can be totally MSE and a Dacia would do everything that a more premium car would.  Most people don't seem to choose Dacia for some reason....

The Zoe is out for the zero NCAP. 
The MG5 and MG4 do both appeal but, again, no NCAP rating.
Nissan Leaf seems to have quoted 239 mile range so would not achieve the commute in poor weather.

Saying that I currently drive a cheap Ford so should accept an equivalent is rather poor justification - the Focus was actually only ever intended to be a stop-gap after returning a company car.  The new car has to start from needs and wants to a solution that will work well rather than just get by.

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

But if you really wanted to get into an EV you could. What are you driving currently - isn’t it a cheap Ford? Why wouldn’t something like a used Zoe 50kWh or a 62kWh Leaf do the job for you? Does it have to be a Lexus/BMW/Audi? What does your current car have that the Zoe or Leaf lacks? 

If you really do believe in the superiority of EVs, you will work round the range issue: thousands do. Another contributor on here has an MG5 and copes fine. I have been told numerous times that charging isn’t a problem, at least not a big enough one to put anyone off getting an EV. 

Yes, a cheap Ford currently.
In fact, I gave the cheap Focus to my Nephew and am now using the '97 Fiesta.
It really is my preference to go EV that has been why I have not upgraded the car before. 
The ES was an option that was a real contender when the offer was there - Mrs GC liked it and the price was "right" - but did not proceed because I was keen for full-EV and thought there'd be the same offer next week if I didn't go for it (which turned out to be wrong).

Yes, I can be totally MSE and a Dacia would do everything that a more premium car would.  Most people don't seem to choose Dacia for some reason....

The Zoe is out for the zero NCAP. 
The MG5 and MG4 do both appeal but, again, no NCAP rating.
Nissan Leaf seems to have quoted 239 mile range so would not achieve the commute in poor weather.

Saying that I currently drive a cheap Ford so should accept an equivalent is rather poor justification - the Focus was actually only ever intended to be a stop-gap after returning a company car.  The new car has to start from needs and wants to a solution that will work well rather than just get by.

For much the same reason a long journey driver would choose to keep a Golf Estate rather than use the wife's Picanto when the latter is perfectly capable of going from one end of the country to the other.  Just think, if you sold the Golf and used the Picanto, it really would make sense to have the Mini-EV for local travelling.

Except several times a year I have to transport family to and from airports, complete with golf clubs and several suitcases packed with everything needed for a several week stay and on the return trip packed with everything you can’t buy in Thailand. (100 kilos of luggage 10 days ago). My daughter also uses the Picanto when over here. I have driven to Cornwall and back in a previous iteration of the Picanto and even used it for 300 business miles one day when my work car was off the road. 

I’m not saying you should only have a cheap EV because you currently run a cheap Ford but saying you can’t afford an EV because there is nothing suitable below £50k is not a convincing argument. Does it have to be new?The Zoe was in part the victim of ever tightening safety standards (the previous model tested in 2913 scored 5 stars) although Renault did remove an airbag but I suspect it would still be safer than your old Focus or Fiesta. 

It might be worth buying an older EV just to test the water and see what really works for you/how you like the EV lifestyle. That’s how most of us have started out. Life with an EV is very different to life with an ICE and once you have tried one you might have a different perspective on priorities. Just like a lot of people buying their first motorhome think they know what they want but after living with one soon realise that they either want a bigger or smaller one). You might find an MG4 LR would work for you or a  used TM3 at half the price of a new premium EV. Committing to a new EV from for 3 years without living o with one first might be something you could perhaps regret. A lot of EVs (and some newer ICEvs) have tech we might not be used to and might not like such as the migration of vital functions such as HVAC to touch screens. It is one of the reasons I went for a Mk7.5 Golf to the Mk8. Buying a Tesla is a leap of faith in tech terms that might not be for everyone. You might read a lot about charging speeds - Bjorn Nyland does numerous videos on this - but to some people it’s not an issue. 

If 239 miles range is insufficient for you and you are set on buying an EV with sufficient range for all your needs, EVs might not be for you - charging is a big part of EV life, particularly in winter. 

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

You might find an MG4 LR would work for you or a  used TM3 at half the price of a new premium EV. 

If 239 miles range is insufficient for you and you are set on buying an EV with sufficient range for all your needs, EVs might not be for you - charging is a big part of EV life, particularly in winter. 

Both of these could possibly work, I agree.
Mrs G-C is reluctant to even see the MG4 because of the no NCAP thing.
I have mentioned (in this thread) I think, the prices of used TM3LR moving favourably in recent weeks - perhaps they will move more favourably in coming weeks?  In fact, one of my posts I linked a couple of specific cars and received comment back that neither were good outcomes.

In November, I also saw some viable offers on the iPACE.  Prices seem to have firmed up on those since Christmas, but will no doubt soften again.

As to 239 miles.  That would be far enough.  But, what would the real range be for that?
Much lower, which is why I didn't land in the UXe.

propnut

An interesting thread with loads of good info. I have no aversion to EV's. In fact I hired a Tesla a few years back when I was on a business trip to California and loved it. My company office there has free charge points and the distances I was doing were well within its range. Over here I have driven a 30KW Gen 1 Nissan Leaf and that too was a nice drive. However last year when looking at the option of replacing my wifes Fiesta with a Gen 1 Leaf I found the numbers didn't make sense. A decent gen 1 with 11-12 bars was, at that point, going to see me outlay +-15K. Her Fiesta we had for 5 years and was fully paid off. It achieved easily 40-45mpg. Doing the math at the time, which was when Petrol was looking to go up to £2/l and basing electricity at 34p/KWH, I worked out that on 10K miles my savings by going with the Leaf would be +-£1000/annum. Sounds good but that would mean it would take 15 years for the car to pay for itself.

Now that was only one factor. Doing more research on the Gen 1 it seemed that even with the newer Lizard battery which I believe started to come out 2013, the battery longevity of a Gen 1 is not great. Additionally it seems that some unscrupulous characters reset the BMS which makes the car appear to have 12 bars, with the buyer only finding the truth once the car has driven a while and the computer recalculates the true SoH. The more I looked into it the less attractive they seemed. I looked at the Zoe as well but then (also as with some Leafs) there was the battery lease thing. For us cars are not a status symbol. I grew up with a mechanic father and as such am very comfortable not only fixing but also doing full car / engine rebuilds/restorations. As such the whole argument of ICE costing more than EV's to maintain is a non issue for me, and to be honest not really true of modern ICE cars.

We ended up buying two Gen 2 Prius Hybrids for just under 10K which happily give 50+mpg in winter and 60+ in summer. On one I reconditioned the battery which was easy enough using hobby grade NiMH chargers and on both replaced the front wheel bearings so around 2-3 hours work in total.  Moving forward I would like to buy either the Gen 4 PHEV Prius or The PHEV Hyundai Ioniq or similar, but will keep the Priuses for at least 5 years before looking again.

JKenH

JKenH said:

Tesla Records Modest Recovery in China Sales After Huge Price Cuts as Elon Musk’s “Funding Secured” Trial Begins

There are rumours that on one day after the latest price cut 80k Tesla orders were placed in China.

https://wccftech.com/tesla-records-modest-recovery-in-china-sales-after-huge-price-cuts-as-elon-musk-funding-secured-trial-begins/

Maybe the rumours above weren’t true. 

Tesla’s China sales jump after heavy price cuts, but intensifying competition, weakening demand cloud outlook

Tesla’s sales in China jumped nearly 80 per cent after the US carmaker slashed prices of the Shanghai-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles earlier this month, but the discounts might not be enough to revive growth as Chinese rivals follow with price cuts of their own, analysts said.

Texas-based Tesla sold 12,654 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles between January 9 and 15, up 76 per cent from the previous seven days, according to data compiled by China Merchants Bank. However, the figure was 14.5 per cent lower than the same period in 2022.

Since late 2022, mainland motorists have been drifting down market towards cheaper EV models, instead of foreign brands like Tesla, unnerved by worries about their job prospects and wages, analysts and dealers said.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3207216/teslas-china-sales-jump-after-heavy-price-cuts-intensifying-competition-weakening-demand-cloud

JKenH

Tesla's Price Cuts Are "Dangerous" For Residual Values: Kia UK Boss

Paul Philpott says Kia won't rush to match Tesla's heavy discounts of up to £8,000 in the UK.

https://insideevs.com/news/631750/tesla-price-cuts-are-dangerous-for-residual-values-kia-uk-boss/

JKenH

Tesla garners new addressable market through price cuts, incentives

While I wouldn’t  argue with the main premise of the article (that the price cuts will widen the market for Tesla cars), I continue to be amazed that websites such as Teslarati, here, still make statements such as the following: 

Despite costs increasing over the past few years for various reasons, Tesla did not seem to see a drop in demand. 

There are still a significant number of Tesla fanboi websites, (along with Tesla executives) who still cling to this narrative. 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-price-cuts-increased-addressable-market/

JKenH

What legal rights do Tesla customers have?

A Daily Mail online article includes advice regarding a consumer’s rights specifically in relation to the Tesla price cuts. You will need to read the article but suggests some comeback under distance selling provisions and under lease agreements. For full details of the advice see the sidebar on the link below.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-11640289/Tesla-price-cut-Owners-say-duped-taking-early-deliveries-higher-prices.html

Whatever the rights of affected consumers are it seems to have left a nasty taste in the mouth of many customers (perhaps worse than Tesla could have anticipated) who have threatened never to buy a Tesla again. From a PR point of  view it has been a disaster but I doubt that would concern Elon Musk.

JKenH

Tesla on eBay - starting bid £14,900.

It will be interesting to see what this Model 3 makes in the eBay auction.


https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/374467527528

Edit: actually not worth watching - it has “sold” twice already.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=tesla+model+3&_sacat=0&_sop=2&LH_Auction=1&rt=nc&LH_Complete=1