EV Discussion thread

ABrass

JKenH said:

A bit more detail on the reduction in order backlog (also known as the amount by which production exceeded sales).

According to Troy Teslike, who provides very interesting Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of November 30, 2022 was roughly 190,000. That's a significant decrease (by some 33%) compared to 285,000 at the end of October.

It was at nearly 300,000 at the end of September and through October, nearly 400,000 at the end of August, and close to 500,000 in the period between March and July.

https://insideevs.com/news/627076/estimated-tesla-order-backlog-november2022/

Backlog reduced from 476k to in July to 190k in November, that’s 286k units in 4 months or 71.5k units a month. In November alone it fell 95k units, that’s 3167 units more production than sales/day. Tesla reported production of 439701 units in Q4 2022, an average daily run rate of 4779 units so on this basis new sales in November were only one third of the vehicles it manufactured. In other words for every 3 cars being manufactured Tesla was only getting replacement sales orders for one. 

That’s not quite as bad as the 20% I suggested in my earlier post but it is still worrying in a company that is feted with being able to sell everything it can manufacture and which up to 9 months ago was doing. In the space of six months which it seems has coincided with the opening and ramp up of Berlin and Texas Tesla has moved from a situation of healthy demand to significant overproduction. 

I haven’t yet seen the December backlog figures so the figures may either have got better or worse.

If we take the July to November period overproduction (286k units/105 days) backlog decreased by 2724 units/day. If we assume, say, 4500 units manufactured, sales are only being replenished at a rate of 1776 units/day or 39.4% of production. At an annualised rate that projects sales of 648k units, around half what was actually achieved in 2022. Based on Q4 2022 figures Tesla has a manufacturing capacity of 1.744 million units but annual sales based on the July to November figures are only 37% of capacity. Just to achieve the 2022 sales target of 1.5 m units Tesla needs to up its current level of sales by 131% and that will still be around 244k units short of plant capacity. That must  surely blow any plans for more Mega factories out the water, at least in the near future. 

The one thing I haven’t taken into account here is the trend. I have just used average figures but the trend of backlog (orders less deliveries) is very interesting. From Nov 2 2021 to 5 Jan 2022 backlog grew by 66k units or 1k per day. From 5 Jan to 11 March it grew 125k units  over 65 days or around 1.9k units/day. (Possibly this backlog was o tribute to by COVID issues in China.) It then stabilised between 11 March and 27 Jul growing only 6k units then started to fall rapidly as Tesla Berlin ramped up from 1000units/ week in June to 2000 units/ week by beginning of October and Tesla Austin also started production aiming for 10,00 units per week by year end. It is easy for Tesla Bulls to argue that these backlog trends are down to COVID issues in China and the ramping up of Berlin and Austin so why would anyone be surprised that the backlog has been dealt with. Isn’t that a good thing - wasn’t that the plan? 

However we can’t ignore that over the course of a year we have gone from a situation where Tesla orders were increasing faster than the cars could be built to a situation where new orders are not only falling in absolute terms but are coming in little more than a third of current plant manufacturing capacity. That is not only a bad financial situation but it is really bad for the brand image.  

The reality is Tesla could have met demand at the end of 2022 without building Berlin or Texas. Given the current state of demand those plants might just as well be standing idle. They are a dead weight round Tesla’s neck in the short term. Tesla has all the expense of running them without any sales value coming from them. 

This all seems very pessimistic so perhaps I have got the sums wrong in which case (as a Tesla shareholder) I will be happy to see them corrected. 

I'd expect the backlog to have fallen even further in December. Anyone in the US will have been waiting for the IRA discounts so numbers will be badly suppressed.

JKenH

MINI Electric: why Autocar readers love it

My wife refused to compromise over a replacement for her Picanto so today we bought a 2022 ex demo model to replace her 11 year old one. (Cost to change, out of interest, was exactly £10k so that calculated on a replacement cost basis depreciation has been just £1k per year.) Having bought the Golf estate for long runs I can now think about a fun EV runabout and the Mini appeals.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advertising-promotions-mini-electric/mini-electric-why-autocar-readers-love-it

thevilla

JKenH said:

MINI Electric: why Autocar readers love it

My wife refused to compromise over a replacement for her Picanto so today we bought a 2022 ex demo model to replace her 11 year old one. (Cost to change, out of interest, was exactly £10k so that calculated on a replacement cost basis depreciation has been just £1k per year.) Having bought the Golf estate for long runs I can now think about a fun EV runabout and the Mini appeals.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advertising-promotions-mini-electric/mini-electric-why-autocar-readers-love-it

So 3 cars instead of 2.  Green ethical money saving

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

A bit more detail on the reduction in order backlog (also known as the amount by which production exceeded sales).

According to Troy Teslike, who provides very interesting Tesla stats and forecasts, the estimated order backlog as of November 30, 2022 was roughly 190,000. That's a significant decrease (by some 33%) compared to 285,000 at the end of October.

It was at nearly 300,000 at the end of September and through October, nearly 400,000 at the end of August, and close to 500,000 in the period between March and July.

https://insideevs.com/news/627076/estimated-tesla-order-backlog-november2022/

Backlog reduced from 476k to in July to 190k in November, that’s 286k units in 4 months or 71.5k units a month. In November alone it fell 95k units, that’s 3167 units more production than sales/day. Tesla reported production of 439701 units in Q4 2022, an average daily run rate of 4779 units so on this basis new sales in November were only one third of the vehicles it manufactured. In other words for every 3 cars being manufactured Tesla was only getting replacement sales orders for one. 

That’s not quite as bad as the 20% I suggested in my earlier post but it is still worrying in a company that is feted with being able to sell everything it can manufacture and which up to 9 months ago was doing. In the space of six months which it seems has coincided with the opening and ramp up of Berlin and Texas Tesla has moved from a situation of healthy demand to significant overproduction. 

I haven’t yet seen the December backlog figures so the figures may either have got better or worse.

If we take the July to November period overproduction (286k units/105 days) backlog decreased by 2724 units/day. If we assume, say, 4500 units manufactured, sales are only being replenished at a rate of 1776 units/day or 39.4% of production. At an annualised rate that projects sales of 648k units, around half what was actually achieved in 2022. Based on Q4 2022 figures Tesla has a manufacturing capacity of 1.744 million units but annual sales based on the July to November figures are only 37% of capacity. Just to achieve the 2022 sales target of 1.5 m units Tesla needs to up its current level of sales by 131% and that will still be around 244k units short of plant capacity. That must  surely blow any plans for more Mega factories out the water, at least in the near future. 

The one thing I haven’t taken into account here is the trend. I have just used average figures but the trend of backlog (orders less deliveries) is very interesting. From Nov 2 2021 to 5 Jan 2022 backlog grew by 66k units or 1k per day. From 5 Jan to 11 March it grew 125k units  over 65 days or around 1.9k units/day. (Possibly this backlog was o tribute to by COVID issues in China.) It then stabilised between 11 March and 27 Jul growing only 6k units then started to fall rapidly as Tesla Berlin ramped up from 1000units/ week in June to 2000 units/ week by beginning of October and Tesla Austin also started production aiming for 10,00 units per week by year end. It is easy for Tesla Bulls to argue that these backlog trends are down to COVID issues in China and the ramping up of Berlin and Austin so why would anyone be surprised that the backlog has been dealt with. Isn’t that a good thing - wasn’t that the plan? 

However we can’t ignore that over the course of a year we have gone from a situation where Tesla orders were increasing faster than the cars could be built to a situation where new orders are not only falling in absolute terms but are coming in little more than a third of current plant manufacturing capacity. That is not only a bad financial situation but it is really bad for the brand image.  

The reality is Tesla could have met demand at the end of 2022 without building Berlin or Texas. Given the current state of demand those plants might just as well be standing idle. They are a dead weight round Tesla’s neck in the short term. Tesla has all the expense of running them without any sales value coming from them. 

This all seems very pessimistic so perhaps I have got the sums wrong in which case (as a Tesla shareholder) I will be happy to see them corrected. 

I'd expect the backlog to have fallen even further in December. Anyone in the US will have been waiting for the IRA discounts so numbers will be badly suppressed.

December figure down to 74k. That’s a reduction of 116k in a month. Based on Q4 run rate of 4799 units/day expected production for a month would be 149k but Shanghai was shut from December 25 to January 1, losing say 20k units, so potentially actual production of 129k units. Of this 116k went to reducing backlog suggesting so new orders were effectively only 13k units. 

The backlog was 476k at end of July and was reduced by 402k to 74k by December 31 virtually the equivalent of the whole of Q4 production (405k units).

I can’t get my head round this. It worries me - no one else has picked up on how serious the demand problem was in H2 of 2022. It suggests something must be fundamentally wrong in my calculations but I just can’t see it. Seriously, if anyone sees the figures differently please put your calculations forward just for my peace if mind. 

 

https://www.patreon.com/posts/75324149

Edit: I am not making predictions or extrapolating what 2023 might be like. I understand the reasons why buyers held off ordering in the US because of the IRA. I am not speculating why demand has fallen or suggesting it won’t recover. I am just looking at the numbers and trying to see what is actually happening with demand. 

Edit 2: The backlogs were cleared in China and Us but not in Europe.

JKenH

thevilla said:

JKenH said:

MINI Electric: why Autocar readers love it

My wife refused to compromise over a replacement for her Picanto so today we bought a 2022 ex demo model to replace her 11 year old one. (Cost to change, out of interest, was exactly £10k so that calculated on a replacement cost basis depreciation has been just £1k per year.) Having bought the Golf estate for long runs I can now think about a fun EV runabout and the Mini appeals.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advertising-promotions-mini-electric/mini-electric-why-autocar-readers-love-it

So 3 cars instead of 2.  Green ethical money saving

Good to have the right car for every occasion. The depreciation on a TMY bought last month would cover my motoring costs for a year or two. I might wait and see what impacts the Tesla price cuts have on the used EV market. I have seen 40kWh Leafs at around £15k now on AutoTrader. The cheapest Mini is currently £20k. TM3s are hanging on at £26k minimum. 

ABrass

Demand isn't static. Reduced waiting times and the massive price cuts will boost demand. Why worry about this, Tesla aren't going to go bust and the reduced price is good for everyone.

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

Demand isn't static. Reduced waiting times and the massive price cuts will boost demand. Why worry about this, Tesla aren't going to go bust and the reduced price is good for everyone.

Also, there's the supercharger network. So lots more new BEV buyers (could be 2m+ new Tesla's this year) who will enjoy easy longer distance driving. Plus more Tesla sales, means even faster expansion of the SC network.

Lots of people are complaining about the ability to charge BEV's, and it being a reason to not get one. So hopefully this will help.

JKenH

It s interesting what Zach Kirkhorn and Elon Musk said in the Q3 earnings call on19 October 2022. He mentions deliveries being just under 50% growth due to an increase in cars in transit but there is no suggestion of a demand issue or that the IRA would likely cause US buyers to hold back purchases, even though these were foreseeable by then.

Zach Kirkhorn said

"As we look ahead, our plans show that we're on track for the 50% annual growth in production this year, although we are tracking supply chain risks which are beyond our control. ... On the delivery side, we do expect to be just under 50% growth due to an increase in the cars in transit at the end of the year, as noted, just above."

In response to the question “what updates can you offer on the backlog and the recent order intake trends, especially outside of the U.S. and especially in China?”

Elon Musk responded:

“Well, it’s -- there’s definitely -- China is experiencing adverse of a recession of sorts, which is property market -- simply from a property market mostly. And Europe has recession of sorts driven by energy. The U.S. actually isn’t -- North America is in a pretty good health, although the Fed is raising interest rates more than they should, but I think they’ll eventually realize that and bring back down again.

Demand is a little higher than it would otherwise be. But as I said earlier, we are extremely confident of the great Q4, and we anticipate continuing to grow our vehicle production, sales deliveries by -- on average 50% a year as far into the future as we can see.”

JKenH

Tesla’s bold price drop will spark EV price war as other car makers try to keep up

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/teslas-bold-price-drop-could-spark-ev-price-war-as-car-makers-try-to-keep-up/277800

JKenH

Xpeng Follows Tesla With Major Price Cuts on China Electric Cars

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/xpeng-follows-tesla-with-major-price-cuts-on-china-electric-cars