EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Just in case anyone thinks it’s only EVs that attract sensational headlines.

Petrol and diesel increase by 10p a litre

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/petrol-and-diesel-increase-by-10p-a-litre

Edit: the cheapest petrol near me today is 141.9p at Tesco Market Rasen where I just happened to fill up last week. I don’t recall having seen it 10p below that near me this year, although I concede there may have been lower prices elsewhere in the country. 

JKenH

New car market growth continues despite declining private demand

Electrified vehicles continued to be the main drivers of market expansion. Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) recorded the strongest growth, rising by 22.1% to account for 7.8% of the market, followed by Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), up 16.7% with a 13.1% share of demand. April was a brighter month for battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations, predominantly due to compelling fiscal incentives for businesses. Overall, BEV uptake rose 10.7%, pushing up market share to 16.9%, a significant uplift on last April’s 15.4%.


https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/05/new-car-market-growth-continues-despite-declining-private-demand/

Edit: Tesla sales stand at 13120 YTD compared to 15168 for the same period last year, a fall of 13.5%. Despite its popularity elsewhere and the huge number of white ones we see on our roads the Tesla Model Y is no longer in the top ten of best selling cars. BMW sales are up over 40% YTD and currently hold around 10.3% of the UK BEV market compared to 12.3% for Tesla. 

michaels

Doesn't surprise me.  UK buyers are all about the Brand and BMW/Mercedes has more cachet now than Tesla so people are buying their EVs.  Bit like the Ford Mondeo and Vauxhall Insignia - didn't matter how good the product was or the value proposition compared to an Audi A4, BMW 3 series or Merc C Class, buyers wanted the badge.

JKenH

Just looking at the SMMT stats in a bit more detail, it was reported that only 15.6% of BEV sales went to private buyers so that is 3.5k private EV sales compared with 47k private sales that had some form of ICE propulsion. That means 93% of private buyers opted for cars with some form of ICE propulsion. 

We know that there would have been many more SalSac cars within the fleet BEV purchases - exactly how many is not known - but how many of the SalSac cars would have been EVs if it were not for the  BIK advantages. Based on the private buyer preferences I would suggest it would only be around 7%. 

I may be wrong but I would venture that it is the BIK advantages that are driving the SalSac BEV rush rather than natural demand for BEVs among tnose able to avail themselves of a SalSac car.

molerat

JKenH said:

Just looking at the SMMT stats in a bit more detail, it was reported that only 15.6% of BEV sales went to private buyers so that is 3.5k private EV sales compared with 47k private sales that had some form of ICE propulsion. That means 93% of private buyers opted for cars with some form of ICE propulsion. 

We know that there would have been many more SalSac cars within the fleet BEV purchases - exactly how many is not known - but how many of the SalSac cars would have been EVs if it were not for the  BIK advantages. Based on the private buyer preferences I would suggest it would only be around 7%. 

I may be wrong but I would venture that it is the BIK advantages that are driving the SalSac BEV rush rather than natural demand for BEVs among tnose able to avail themselves of a SalSac car.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/worried-carmakers-call-uk-help-134809140.html

While overall UK registrations grew by 1% in April year-on-year to 134,000, the increase was caused by fleet sales, with private buyer sales down by almost 18% on last year.

JKenH

Electric van demand falls as zero emission target downgraded

Deliveries of zero emission LCVs declined last month, with new battery electric van (BEV) uptake falling to 861 units, down 42.4% compared with last year’s uplift in demand.

It means BEVs accounted for just 3.6% of all new LCV registrations compared with 6.6% in April last year.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/electric-van-demand-falls-as-zero-emission-target-downgraded

1961Nick

JKenH said:

Electric van demand falls as zero emission target downgraded

Deliveries of zero emission LCVs declined last month, with new battery electric van (BEV) uptake falling to 861 units, down 42.4% compared with last year’s uplift in demand.

It means BEVs accounted for just 3.6% of all new LCV registrations compared with 6.6% in April last year.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/electric-van-demand-falls-as-zero-emission-target-downgraded

I was talking to a neighbour who has been told by his employer that his next works van will be electric. He's looked at the spec of the vehicle & the range is 150 miles unladed. The problem is that he often does more than that in a day plus being 'on call'. His tools alone weigh a nearly a tonne added to which is the weight of any equipment he's taking to & from the job. The van needs to be on site at all times to access the tools. We both reckoned that any cost saving over running a diesel LCV will be minute compared to the cost of 2 expensive electricians taking several detours every week to charge the van. It will also mean he can't respond to an out of hours call from home if the van has insufficient charge... quite likely seeing as the employer wants the fleet charging off-peak!

A rough calculation suggests that this 100% EV policy will cost this organisation around £500K pa in wages plus another £400K in wage related overhead (including overtime). The fuel saving is around £200K.

michaels

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Electric van demand falls as zero emission target downgraded

Deliveries of zero emission LCVs declined last month, with new battery electric van (BEV) uptake falling to 861 units, down 42.4% compared with last year’s uplift in demand.

It means BEVs accounted for just 3.6% of all new LCV registrations compared with 6.6% in April last year.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/electric-van-demand-falls-as-zero-emission-target-downgraded

I was talking to a neighbour who has been told by his employer that his next works van will be electric. He's looked at the spec of the vehicle & the range is 150 miles unladed. The problem is that he often does more than that in a day plus being 'on call'. His tools alone weigh a nearly a tonne added to which is the weight of any equipment he's taking to & from the job. The van needs to be on site at all times to access the tools. We both reckoned that any cost saving over running a diesel LCV will be minute compared to the cost of 2 expensive electricians taking several detours every week to charge the van. It will also mean he can't respond to an out of hours call from home if the van has insufficient charge... quite likely seeing as the employer wants the fleet charging off-peak!

A rough calculation suggests that this 100% EV policy will cost this organisation around £500K pa in wages plus another £400K in wage related overhead (including overtime). The fuel saving is around £200K.

I wonder if there tax breaks as otherwise that model would appear to make no sense for a business.  I have no idea how far on average a van travels in a day, I suspect it might be quite variable depending on whether it is a local or not so local job which is not a great use case for an EV.  Local / last mile delivery seems to make more sense?

Edit:  Could this be a good use case for battery swap technology where the value of time makes a quick swap faciality economically viable?

silverwhistle

1961Nick said:

 The van needs to be on site at all times to access the tools. We both reckoned that any cost saving over running a diesel LCV will be minute compared to the cost of 2 expensive electricians taking several detours every week to charge the van. It will also mean he can't respond to an out of hours call from home if the van has insufficient charge... quite likely seeing as the employer wants the fleet charging off-peak!

It's an interesting issue with many ramifications. My best friend who is also on my EV's insurance needs no convincing on the pleasure and fuel costs of driving one but is not ready yet to get an EV van for her business,  from the capital cost and the range issues you describe. My teasing about getting an EV is very gentle because I understand the drawbacks. She does jobs all over the county and call outs too, so the range issue is a genuine one. But I've suggested she keep a log of her daily mileage to understand how often and to what extent it would be an issue. It's also the case that many of her commercial clients as well as domestic ones now have chargers and it's interesting to debate whether in future it will be the case that they get utilised, whether paid for directly or indirectly, or on an informal or formal basis (as part of a maintenance agreement, for example).

Much of the time an extra 10kWh (or similar) might get the vehicle back to base, so I suspect detours and hours charging will not be the issue it might once have been. It would certainly require a little more thought from the driver though.

1961Nick

michaels said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Electric van demand falls as zero emission target downgraded

Deliveries of zero emission LCVs declined last month, with new battery electric van (BEV) uptake falling to 861 units, down 42.4% compared with last year’s uplift in demand.

It means BEVs accounted for just 3.6% of all new LCV registrations compared with 6.6% in April last year.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/electric-van-demand-falls-as-zero-emission-target-downgraded

I was talking to a neighbour who has been told by his employer that his next works van will be electric. He's looked at the spec of the vehicle & the range is 150 miles unladed. The problem is that he often does more than that in a day plus being 'on call'. His tools alone weigh a nearly a tonne added to which is the weight of any equipment he's taking to & from the job. The van needs to be on site at all times to access the tools. We both reckoned that any cost saving over running a diesel LCV will be minute compared to the cost of 2 expensive electricians taking several detours every week to charge the van. It will also mean he can't respond to an out of hours call from home if the van has insufficient charge... quite likely seeing as the employer wants the fleet charging off-peak!

A rough calculation suggests that this 100% EV policy will cost this organisation around £500K pa in wages plus another £400K in wage related overhead (including overtime). The fuel saving is around £200K.

I wonder if there tax breaks as otherwise that model would appear to make no sense for a business.  I have no idea how far on average a van travels in a day, I suspect it might be quite variable depending on whether it is a local or not so local job which is not a great use case for an EV.  Local / last mile delivery seems to make more sense?

Edit:  Could this be a good use case for battery swap technology where the value of time makes a quick swap faciality economically viable?

One of the engineers that had an electric van on trial claimed the cold weather range dropped as low as 80 miles on some days. Another observation was that the heavy payload (over 3.5 tonne gvw) cancelled the efficiency advantage an EV usually has in low speed stop/start urban driving.