EV Discussion thread

michaels

JKenH said:

michaels said:

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Although it’s hard to believe, the latest YTD figures I can find show BZ4X at 2960 against 3574 for the Tesla Model 3. How on Earth have Toyota managed that? There are Highland Model 3s in stock for immediate delivery.

Doesn't surprise me at all, the M3 is a saloon/sedan and the market has moved on, especially without a German cachet badge whereas the BZ4X is an SUV.  Tesla also has a competing SUV in the MY which is where no doubt almost all the demand is.  Wonder if there were UK delivery delays for Tesla in March as I think they still ship RHD from China rather than Berlin?

michaels

JKenH said:

There is a fascinating table in the linked article which sets out the level of BEV sales manufacturers need to achieve to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate. Because of the credits it earns from its lower fleet emissions (enabled by hybrids) Toyota only needs to sell 13% BEVs this year. Currently it is running ahead of target at 14% having sold around 3k BZ4Xs so far this year. 

https://www.evinfocus.com/uk-records-best-ever-bev-month/

Lots of interesting nuggets in there - for example Nissan being one of the most short despite having 2 EVs and epower which I would expect to score as big a reduction as the Toyota hybrids.  Also JLR only needing 11% - I wonder if they are putting PHEV in all their vehicles without specifically charging extra for it to meet (game) the emissions rules - regardless of whether their customer sever plug in?! (it being cheaper to add a 5k(?) PHEV system than pay a 15k fine!)

michaels

JKenH said:

There is a fascinating table in the linked article which sets out the level of BEV sales manufacturers need to achieve to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate. Because of the credits it earns from its lower fleet emissions (enabled by hybrids) Toyota only needs to sell 13% BEVs this year. Currently it is running ahead of target at 14% having sold around 3k BZ4Xs so far this year. 

https://www.evinfocus.com/uk-records-best-ever-bev-month/

Actually another interesting conclusion from that table - I had taken the 22% BEV govt target as being absolute and the current 16% ish being well short but looking at all the lowered manufacturer targets resulting from hybrids/phevs perhaps at 16% pure bev the industry is pretty much there already for this year?!

michaels

So UK Fiskers now have between 6k and 15k off list to clear - expensive paperweight?!

1961Nick

michaels said:

So UK Fiskers now have between 6k and 15k off list to clear - expensive paperweight?!

It'd be a hell of a gamble with potentially no parts, warranty or software support.

JKenH

The future of EVs: cost of production to fall but repair bills to soar

A significant reason in the lower production costs is the increasing use of gigacasting in the construction of BEVs.

“In the case of gigacastings, there is no known process for repair that can be done in a cost-effective way.

“For a conventional floorplan, you might stretch it in order to bring it back to the original dimensions, but with the gigacasting it’s not clear yet.

“It could potentially be the OEMS using castings might develop processes to make the repairs cheaper for the sake of drivers and vehicle owners, but at the moment it’s not really clear what is obviously going to happen.”

Other construction methods could also adversely affect BEV repair costs compared to those from ICE vehicles, says Pacheco.

“For instance, when you have a structural battery to allow you to reduce the number of components, whenever you have a problem in the battery, it becomes very hard just to replace a cell,” he adds.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/features/the-future-of-evs-cost-of-production-to-fall-but-repair-bills-to-soar

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

The future of EVs: cost of production to fall but repair bills to soar

A significant reason in the lower production costs is the increasing use of gigacasting in the construction of BEVs.

If "gigacasting" is the way forward for lower production costs, wouldn't that approach also be rolled out to new ICE models?  If, of course, there were wholly new ICE models being developed which, one assumes, won't be a significant event what with the prohibition of wholly ICE cars from 6 years' time.

JKenH

Two related articles from Drive. While Elon Musk has accused Reuters of “lying” in reporting that the new Tesla small car has been canned, there may be some substance in the story. Previously there had been discussion within Tesla around whether the next new vehicle should purely be a robotaxi but executives had convinced Mr Musk to develop a platform capable of being delivered as a drivers car or robotaxi or both. At one stage it seemed like the next vehicle would be the Model 2 but now that may have changed in the face of Chinese competition with the emphasis on development now swinging back to the robotaxi. All speculation of course. 

Tesla autonomous ‘robotaxi’ to be unveiled in August – Elon Musk

Tesla plans to unveil its new 'robotaxi' – an autonomous compact car without a steering wheel or pedals – on 8 August 2024, company CEO Elon Musk has announced.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-robotaxi-unveiled-in-august-musk/

Tesla’s $US25,000 small car axed to go all-in on autonomous taxi – report

A new report has claimed plans for the cheapest and smallest Tesla electric vehicle yet have been scrapped to focus on an autonomous version without a steering wheel or pedals.

According to an internal memo seen by the news agency's sources, the unnamed manager of the vehicle program said "suppliers should halt all further activities related to H422/NV91," referring to the external and internal codenames respectively for the project.

In his biography of the executive released last year, author Walter Isaacson – who shadowed the Tesla boss for two years – wrote of Musk's desire in 2022 to skip the more conventional model, and develop the small car as an autonomous vehicle only.

But top Tesla executives – including design boss Franz von Holzhausen, and vehicle engineering chief Lars Moravy – convinced Musk to play it safe and offer two versions.

"We want to make sure we are assessing the risk with you. If we go down a path of having no steering wheel, and FSD [Full Self-Driving] is not ready, we won't be able to put them on the road ... our proposal is to bake them in right now but remove them when we are allowed to," von Holzhausen reportedly told Musk in a 2022 meeting.

Musk is said to have shaken his head – and when assured the driver controls could be "small" and removed "pretty easily" – the outspoken Tesla CEO reportedly said: "No. No. NO ... No mirrors, no pedals, no steering wheel. This is me taking responsibility for this decision."

https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-small-car-axed-all-in-on-robotaxi-report/

JKenH

Autocar have recently completed a group test of affordable (less than £40k) EVs (link below). The big surprise, even among the road testers, was that the latest Tesla Model 3 only came 6th. The testers were particularly scathing about the indicators and  user interface in general (see extract highlighted below). This contrasts with many YouTube reviews I have seen which suggest the lack of indicator stalks is not a problem and the driver adapts to the indicators within a few minutes of driving and there is also auto indicator mode see at about 3:10 in this video from Richard Symons (RSEV) https://youtu.be/IPVGnJJhtfk?si=CkxJKQikzry2I3vu  ) I’ve not driven one so can’t comment on that but, if the idea of a stalkless car puts one off before you even try it and find it is ok, it won’t help sales. 

Is this part of the problem with Model 3 Highland sales? At the end of February the TM3 was only around 300 sales behind the ModelY but by the end of March that gap had grown to over 3000. That suggests the Tesla fans were keen to get their hands on the new Highland version but once that initial demand was met mainstream demand just wasn’t there. Maybe it’s not the stalks - perhaps, it’s because it’s a saloon, not an SUV/hatch - we just don’t know.

First shots came from Matt Prior, who is quite the user interface reformist and reckons that manufacturers shouldn’t be allowed to sell a car with indicator controls like the Tesla’s.

I thought he was exaggerating at first, but I don’t disagree. The steering wheel ‘buttons’ being capacitive and stacked vertically means they’re never where you left them and you can’t control them without looking away from the road. If you don’t press in the right place, they just don’t do anything, and you’re constantly fighting the self-cancelling feature.

This system promotes not indicating on roundabouts and when changing lanes, and that can’t be right. The rest of the interface (the lights, wipers, cruise control and mirror adjustment) isn’t as dangerous but is no less infuriating. And are we really okay with a car that tells you in the middle of a rainy journey that the parking sensors won’t work because the camera is slightly dirty?

Suggestion about Autocar 27th March 2024 page 32
https://go.readly.com/magazines/5321d063abb90f06c300001c/66027c9cf1982f1a94cd50ec/32

Magnitio

JKenH said:

Autocar have recently completed a group test of affordable (less than £40k) EVs (link below). The big surprise, even among the road testers, was that the latest Tesla Model 3 only came 6th. The testers were particularly scathing about the indicators and  user interface in general (see extract highlighted below). This contrasts with many YouTube reviews I have seen which suggest the lack of indicator stalks is not a problem and the driver adapts to the indicators within a few minutes of driving and there is also auto indicator mode see at about 3:10 in this video from Richard Symons (RSEV) https://youtu.be/IPVGnJJhtfk?si=CkxJKQikzry2I3vu  ) I’ve not driven one so can’t comment on that but, if the idea of a stalkless car puts one off before you even try it and find it is ok, it won’t help sales. 

Is this part of the problem with Model 3 Highland sales? At the end of February the TM3 was only around 300 sales behind the ModelY but by the end of March that gap had grown to over 3000. That suggests the Tesla fans were keen to get their hands on the new Highland version but once that initial demand was met mainstream demand just wasn’t there. Maybe it’s not the stalks - perhaps, it’s because it’s a saloon, not an SUV/hatch - we just don’t know.

First shots came from Matt Prior, who is quite the user interface reformist and reckons that manufacturers shouldn’t be allowed to sell a car with indicator controls like the Tesla’s.

I thought he was exaggerating at first, but I don’t disagree. The steering wheel ‘buttons’ being capacitive and stacked vertically means they’re never where you left them and you can’t control them without looking away from the road. If you don’t press in the right place, they just don’t do anything, and you’re constantly fighting the self-cancelling feature.

This system promotes not indicating on roundabouts and when changing lanes, and that can’t be right. The rest of the interface (the lights, wipers, cruise control and mirror adjustment) isn’t as dangerous but is no less infuriating. And are we really okay with a car that tells you in the middle of a rainy journey that the parking sensors won’t work because the camera is slightly dirty?

Suggestion about Autocar 27th March 2024 page 32
https://go.readly.com/magazines/5321d063abb90f06c300001c/66027c9cf1982f1a94cd50ec/32

It is a car that people love or hate. There were 6 Autocar reviewers and they voted it 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 8th and 12th out of 12.