EV Discussion thread

JKenH

This analysis of the comparative performance of Tesla and Hyundai in Q1 by CleanTechnica makes interesting reading. (Although the article also includes Toyota, that is a distraction I am ignoring. This is about EV sales.). Considering the price advantage Tesla enjoys, its performance in the US is disappointing compared to Hyundai. A Tesla Model Y for $24,000!

Tesla, Toyota, or Hyundai — Who Wore It Best? A 1st Quarter US Sales Analysis

I used the same methods for this table, except I listed the least expensive Model Y available in each period. In the first two periods, that was the Long Range AWD, but in the most recent period, that is the RWD Model Y with 260 miles of range (instead of the 310 miles of range of the Long Range AWD). This shows the entry level Model Y price dropped even more than the apples to apples comparison I first showed. So, clearly, the price dropped considerably no matter how you look at it. From a personal standpoint, my daughter bought a Model Y a couple years ago for about $60,000, and one a few weeks ago for about $24,000 ($5,000 Colorado tax credit and some extra incentives offered the last week of the quarter explain why the price is lower than the $32,490 amount in the table above).

So, given the MASSIVE net price decreases explained above, why didn’t sales increase?

Hyundai’s EV sales jumped 62% in the quarter versus the first quarter of 2023, in spite of the fact that none of these are made in the US, so they don’t get the $7,500 tax credit unless they are leased. Hyundai (and Kia) have been much faster at pushing leasing to take advantage of that loophole than Tesla. They also let people buy out the cars at the end of the lease if they want. Hyundai was surprised by the details of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), so it is at a major disadvantage to Tesla, which has EV manufacturing in the US and some battery contracts that have enough materials from the right countries to get the full tax credit for most of their cars. 

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/04/07/tesla-toyota-or-hyundai-who-wore-it-best-a-1st-quarter-us-sales-analysis/

Edit: in case the table hasn’t formatted properly, here it is. 

JKenH

Plug-in hybrids almost double company car market share

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have taken market share from pure electric company cars, according to the latest data from Cap HPI’s Insight report.

In the first two months of the year, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for more than a third (35%) of the fleet market, down from almost half (44.5%) at the start of last year.

Diesel and petrol market share also fell, from 5.4% to 4.5% and 30.1% to 28.1%, respectively.

However, Cap HPI analysis suggests that PHEV market share almost doubled from 14% at the start of last year to 26.6% in the first two months of 2024.      

Andrew Turner, senior product specialist at Cap HPI consulting, said: “The first two months have been a strong period for PHEV, with the Insight market share growing by over 12%, whereas BEV share dropped by nearly 10% while retaining the highest overall fuel share in this market.

“The BEV share of 35% is somewhat down on the overall 2023 share of nearly 49%.”

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/plug-in-hybrids-almost-double-company-car-market-share

Is it “user choosers” making the decision to go PHEV or the companies they work for?

Contrast this with this prediction from 3 weeks ago:

Fleets now expect to be fully electric within four years, finds Lex Autolease

https://fleetworld.co.uk/fleets-now-expect-to-be-fully-electric-within-four-years-finds-lex-autolease/

Grumpy_chap

Grumpy_chap said:

Away for work right now, 159 miles to the hotel from home, pretty much all motorway.  I'm optimistic that I might make the return without needing to charge, but the sensible side of me says to go for a ""splash-and-dash" or even a full charge regardless.  I still have "free" miles of charge from Tesla available to use, so risking it is daft.  It depends a bit on what time I get away from the office tomorrow evening - I'll certainly stop on route, but if it is a late departure, then I'll be doing a longer stop to eat in any case and a charge will take no time in addition.

I will update on this.
I believe I could possibly have made the return journey but the computer suggested to stop and recharge at a convenient (2/3) point on the journey.  Arriving at the charge point, the computer said 60 miles remaining journey and 55 miles remaining energy.  Could I have eeked that out?  I'll never know as, frankly, I wasn't keen on the idea of being stopped at the roadside with it getting dark, blustery and damp / raining.  A "splash-and-dash" would have done, but I wanted a coffee anyway.  The charge took 33 minutes to add 55 kWh which was the perfect amount of time to recharge me as well.

michaels

JKenH said:

Plug-in hybrids almost double company car market share

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have taken market share from pure electric company cars, according to the latest data from Cap HPI’s Insight report.

In the first two months of the year, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for more than a third (35%) of the fleet market, down from almost half (44.5%) at the start of last year.

Diesel and petrol market share also fell, from 5.4% to 4.5% and 30.1% to 28.1%, respectively.

However, Cap HPI analysis suggests that PHEV market share almost doubled from 14% at the start of last year to 26.6% in the first two months of 2024.      

Andrew Turner, senior product specialist at Cap HPI consulting, said: “The first two months have been a strong period for PHEV, with the Insight market share growing by over 12%, whereas BEV share dropped by nearly 10% while retaining the highest overall fuel share in this market.

“The BEV share of 35% is somewhat down on the overall 2023 share of nearly 49%.”

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/plug-in-hybrids-almost-double-company-car-market-share

Is it “user choosers” making the decision to go PHEV or the companies they work for?

Contrast this with this prediction from 3 weeks ago:

Fleets now expect to be fully electric within four years, finds Lex Autolease

https://fleetworld.co.uk/fleets-now-expect-to-be-fully-electric-within-four-years-finds-lex-autolease/

Isn't this the manufacturers pushing phev as it helps diminish the 22 target other wise needed to avoid 15k per vehicle charge - see for example JLR who have decided to add a phev to many of their vehicles as the incremental cost is way less than 15k.

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Plug-in hybrids almost double company car market share

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have taken market share from pure electric company cars, according to the latest data from Cap HPI’s Insight report.

In the first two months of the year, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for more than a third (35%) of the fleet market, down from almost half (44.5%) at the start of last year.

Diesel and petrol market share also fell, from 5.4% to 4.5% and 30.1% to 28.1%, respectively.

However, Cap HPI analysis suggests that PHEV market share almost doubled from 14% at the start of last year to 26.6% in the first two months of 2024.      

Andrew Turner, senior product specialist at Cap HPI consulting, said: “The first two months have been a strong period for PHEV, with the Insight market share growing by over 12%, whereas BEV share dropped by nearly 10% while retaining the highest overall fuel share in this market.

“The BEV share of 35% is somewhat down on the overall 2023 share of nearly 49%.”

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/plug-in-hybrids-almost-double-company-car-market-share

Is it “user choosers” making the decision to go PHEV or the companies they work for?

Contrast this with this prediction from 3 weeks ago:

Fleets now expect to be fully electric within four years, finds Lex Autolease

https://fleetworld.co.uk/fleets-now-expect-to-be-fully-electric-within-four-years-finds-lex-autolease/

Isn't this the manufacturers pushing phev as it helps diminish the 22 target other wise needed to avoid 15k per vehicle charge - see for example JLR who have decided to add a phev to many of their vehicles as the incremental cost is way less than 15k.

I am sure manufacturers would be over the moon if they could just push a particular powertrain and people buy it. The mass transition to BEVs would be solved overnight. For both company car drivers and companies the tax breaks are very much in favour of BEVs, and BEVs just get better and better, and the choice ever wider, so why is BEV adoption stalling while PHEV is increasing.

The growth of PHEVs is not just confined to the UK.

Plug-in car registrations (worldwide) January-February 2024 (YOY change):

• BEVs: about *1.2 million (up 23%) and 9% market share
• PHEVs: about *0.7 million  (up 46%) and 5% market share
• Total: 1,923,621 (up 30%) and 14% market share

https://insideevs.com/news/715605/global-plugin-car-sales-february2024/

While BEVS are getting better and more desirable, perhaps PHEVs are getting even more desirable. For many people a modern PHEV, typical electric range now 40 miles upwards, enables them to do all their commuting/school runs on cheap rate electricity and still have the comfort of an ICE engine for those long trips. 

JKenH

Price parity ‘fuelling demand’ for used battery electric vehicles

Dean Merritt, UK head of sales for Indicata, explained: “Price parity is vital for BEVs in the used market as consumers are now being offered all the latest fuel types at similar prices, where before used BEVs were commanding a 25-30% price premium which put buyers off going electric.”

He added: “Price parity is fuelling demand just as the volumes of used BEVs, particularly ex-fleet cars, are increasing which is good news for the entire industry.”  

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/price-parity-fuelling-demand-for-used-battery-electric-vehicles

michaels

The bik company car tax for a big 4x4 drops from 37% to 12% if you add a battery good for 30 miles, 8% fr 40 miles and 5% for 70 miles.  Now look at what JLR are selling.  Of course whether any of these are ever plugged in and what miles per kwh they actually get is less certain but we do see JLR needing to sell/buy credits for much fewer than 22% of their output s a result because this target is also adjusted down as a result of phev sales.

So probably there is demand for phevs rather than bevs (might be a different story if equivalent BEVs were available) but suggesting that is despite them not getting nearly such generous tax breaks is not correct.

JKenH

A contrasting perspective on the state of the used BEV market based on statistics from across Europe. 

INDICATA Market Watch

Used car insights report

Is this the end of the road for used BEVs?

While BEVs saw a modest monthly increase in their market share, rising to 9.24% of sales, they are 16.8% lower than in September 2023. With the sale of used BEVs showing a steady decline in sales share, some are asking if BEV’s are heading towards the end of the road just a few years before many governments are planning to mandate them.

The key driver behind BV having such a weak MDS compared to the other powertrains is the amount of used stock hitting the wholesale and retail market. BEVs have proved very popular in the new car market partly due to the significant tax benefits in some countries, but the used-car market is reluctant to accept them. The net result is that whilst used BEVs iaccounted for 4.29% of the February online B2C used vehicle market, the accounted for 7.3% of the available online B2C used vehicle stock, with even more used BEVs sitting in wholesale stock.

https://www.indicata.com/download/INDICATA_Market_Watch_49_EN.pdf

If you are feeling thoroughly depressed by all this then watch this YouTube video from “Dave Takes It On” who explains that it isn’t EVs that are in trouble but ICEVs. I should explain it’s a bit light on facts but high on enthusiasm. 

https://youtu.be/7rcNmH-fbdg?si=zaQlzhEMWhfToRsN

JKenH

michaels said:

The bik company car tax for a big 4x4 drops from 37% to 12% if you add a battery good for 30 miles, 8% fr 40 miles and 5% for 70 miles.  Now look at what JLR are selling.  Of course whether any of these are ever plugged in and what miles per kwh they actually get is less certain but we do see JLR needing to sell/buy credits for much fewer than 22% of their output s a result because this target is also adjusted down as a result of phev sales.

So probably there is demand for phevs rather than bevs (might be a different story if equivalent BEVs were available) but suggesting that is despite them not getting nearly such generous tax breaks is not correct.

But that has been the BIK case since 2021. I actually said  “For both company car drivers and companies the tax breaks are very much in favour of BEVs”

12%, 8% or even 5% BIK is still a lot more tax than 2% on an EV and that has been the case since 2021 so why suddenly now is the swing to PHEVs occurring? And why is it happening worldwide as well?

Companies don’t get the same tax breaks on PHEVs as they do on ICEVs. I asked earlier whether it is user choosers or companies responsible for the shift. Many companies mandated a shift to BEVs - are they loosening their policies now that the ESG movement has lost a bit of steam?

Whether a PHEV is plugged in or not is somewhat irrelevant to the discussion on whether sales are rising or falling. It may be of concern to many who have strong feelings on this but focussing on that misses the point that BEVs aren’t the compelling proposition they once were compared to PHEVs.

As I said “While BEVS are getting better and more desirable, perhaps PHEVs are getting even more desirable.”

1961Nick

It'll take several years for the public to change it's perception that a BEV will only do 100 miles on a charge, is likely to burst into flames & will need a new £15K battery every 50,000 miles.