EV Discussion thread

michaels

silverwhistle said:

michaels said:

(I can't say that I've seen a flood of Chinese EVs on the roads near me, however - the EVs I see are from the traditional manufacturers)

MGs, Polestars, Teslas,,,,

It might still be a slightly localised phenomenon for some brands. Plenty of MGs round my way due to local dealership, and I parked in my local village next to an identical coloured model, which might have confused the other driver if I hadn't moved sooner! Not sure I'd even recognise a Polestar and I don't know the different Tesla models even if I recognise the badge.

But lower second hand prices can only help expand the market and normalise it.

You can't walk down the street here without tripping over half a dozen Teslas and MG EVs are not that far behind.  Polestars are rarer but by no means unusual

JKenH

After Tesla’s poor showing, some good news on EV sales from the U.S.

Hyundai U.S. EV Sales Doubled In March 2024

https://insideevs.com/news/714698/hyundai-us-ev-sales-march2024/

Ford takes second in US EV market after sales climb 86% as lower prices take effect

https://electrek.co/2024/04/03/ford-takes-second-us-ev-market-price-cuts-take-effect/

Meanwhile

Toyota Has A 'We Told You' Moment As Stock Climbs 32% Year To Date

https://insideevs.com/news/714827/toyota-stock-rises-as-tesla-shares-drop/

Toyota Motor North America Reports March, First Quarter 2024 U.S. Sales

First quarter sales of electrified vehicles surges 74 percent on a volume basis; represents 36.6 percent of total sales volume

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-march-first-quarter-2024-us-sales-302105962.html

JKenH

You can put either a positive or negative spin on BEV performance in the March registration results released today. BEV sales reached a record level at 48,388 units, up 3.8% (1762 units) on March 2023 but lost market share, down to 15.2% compared to 16.2%. It does seem that BEVs have found a natural level (at least FTB) having averaged 15/16% over the whole of 2023 and the first 3 months of 2024. I was surprised that BEV sales did not do better as Fleet sales (which account for most BEV registrations) were up overall 28.9% adding 41,397 units (compared to BEV growth of just 1762 units). That suggests that the proportion of BEVs is falling (or at least fell in March). Over the YTD fleets have added an additional 73,174 units while BEVs have increased by 8081 units. If fleets were buying all the BEVs just 11% of fleet growth in Q1 would be BEVs. They don’t, though, and probably more than 90% of new fleet orders have been non BEV. Looking at it another way, last year in Q1 BEVs sold 76,233 units the equivalent of 30% of fleet sales. This year the figure is 25.8%. If that 30% ratio had been maintained we would have been looking at 98k BEV sales or 18% of the total new car market YTD.

March new car market sustains growth as manufacturers shore up electrified demand

Petrol cars retained the lion’s share of the market, at 55.7%, with registrations up 9.2% year on year, as diesel volumes fell -2.7% to account for just 7.3% of demand. Uptake of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) reached record levels, rising by 19.6% to 44,550 units and 14.0% of the market, while the biggest percentage growth was recorded by plug-in hybrids, up by more than a third to 24,517 units, or 7.7% of all new registrations. Conversely, while battery electric vehicle (BEV) registration volumes were at their highest ever recorded levels, market share fell by one percentage point from the same month last year, down to 15.2%. Registrations rose 3.8%, with only fleets showing any volume growth.



https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/04/march-new-car-market-sustains-growth-as-manufacturers-shore-up-electrified-demand/

Edited for format change.

JKenH

There is a fascinating table in the linked article which sets out the level of BEV sales manufacturers need to achieve to meet the requirements of the ZEV mandate. Because of the credits it earns from its lower fleet emissions (enabled by hybrids) Toyota only needs to sell 13% BEVs this year. Currently it is running ahead of target at 14% having sold around 3k BZ4Xs so far this year. 

https://www.evinfocus.com/uk-records-best-ever-bev-month/

Netexporter

The Chinese makers seem to be in the clear, re ZEV. Of course, the BZ4X is made in China,. although it doesn't sell well, even there.

michaels

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Martyn1981

michaels said:

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Yes very interesting the changes that can be encouraged. Going back just a few years Australia was seeing very few BEV sales. They have no emissions rules*, so legacy auto wasn't shipping BEV's there. But now they get the Chinese, Tesla and S. Korean BEV's, and the market is growing slowly but steadily.

I think Toyota's BEV sales last year were ~1%, so gonna be spread quite thin, till they bite the bullet and ramp up production.

*Just starting to change.

JKenH

michaels said:

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Although it’s hard to believe, the latest YTD figures I can find show BZ4X at 2960 against 3574 for the Tesla Model 3. How on Earth have Toyota managed that? There are Highland Model 3s in stock for immediate delivery.

1961Nick

JKenH said:

michaels said:

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Although it’s hard to believe, the latest YTD figures I can find show BZ4X at 2960 against 3574 for the Tesla Model 3. How on Earth have Toyota managed that? There are Highland Model 3s in stock for immediate delivery.

I'm beginning to think that the problem Tesla are having is the replacement cycle of the Model 3. The 4 year warranty & the excellent durability of the car is resulting in ownership being extended beyond a typical 3 years. The high initial depreciation of a brand new car is possibly another factor that's weighing on sales. For private owners the Model 3 is turning into the motoring equivalent of the Miele washing machine!

I can't see myself buying a new one next time when I can get one that's less than a year old at 35% off list. That'll mean waiting until the back end of 2025 at the earliest for a Model 3 Ludicrous.

Magnitio

JKenH said:

michaels said:

I mentioned elsewhere, Toyota is selling more EVs in the UK than the US despite the US car market being nearly 10x bigger - just goes to show what having an incentive can make happen

Although it’s hard to believe, the latest YTD figures I can find show BZ4X at 2960 against 3574 for the Tesla Model 3. How on Earth have Toyota managed that? There are Highland Model 3s in stock for immediate delivery.

Although the new prices for the M3 and BZ4X are similar, the lease costs for the Toyota are considerably lower. Example: Toyota £343p.m. Tesla £528p.m. Also, it does look like they may have been holding back stock as the Q4 sales were quite low in comparison.