EV Discussion thread

Exiled_Tyke

Martyn1981 said:

I think this is more a discussion item than news. It suggests that the transition to BEV's could be derailed by high leccy prices. I'm not convinced, or to be more precise, demand is high, supply is still low, so a temporary (5yrs?) high leccy price as a function of gas prices and reduced supply shouldn't really be an issue. Though if the problem was expected to last into the medium term, then perhaps, but it seems that some in Germany are overly concerned .... I think.

Just to say, I also appreciate the impact on disposable income, and a potential recession, but that would be an impact on car sales, not BEV's specifically, so may not impact the percentage of BEV's and its growth, though the absolute sales of cars/BEV's may fall.

Soaring energy costs could threaten future of electric cars, experts warn

Soaring energy costs are threatening the future of the electric car, industry bosses in Germany have warned.
A rise in electricity prices as well as in raw material costs and availability, a chronic shortage of parts, and a widespread reduction in disposable income are having a considerable impact on the production and sales of cars.

I'm inclined to agree with you.  Looking at the demographic of a typical current BEV driver there will be a strong correlation with PV ownership, workplace charging or at the very least savvy enough to use TOU tariffs.  As you suggest growth may be slow while supply is poor and in particular the growth into other areas of the market will be slow to develop. But I don't see this as a risk of jeopardy. If BEV costs can come down then even with energy/fuel costs at parity there's still a very strong case to move away from the ICE. 

70sbudgie

I suspect it has to do with the new vs second hand argument. I've heard a few people say that they'd like an EV, but can't afford a new car. And because the second hand EV market isn't particularly busy, they end up going for second hand ICE.

Martyn1981

Thought I'd post the small BEV and charging adventure that Wifey went on over the weekend.

For a 'significant' birthday, she decided to rent a holiday cottage in Dorset and take her friends for a long weekend, resulting in the 'The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly'.

She planned ahead of time, and having not needed to use chargers before for Tesla's, as they have significant range, she was very careful. Plus the south coast isn't well served with superchargers at all, since they tend to be placed along motorway routes. So lots of research. Unfortunately the parking for the cottage was too far away, even for an extension lead.

The Good - The gang (of five) would be covering 108 miles to the cottage, so she asked me what TiMmY (the Tesla) would use. I said that theoretically, it could get there on 1/3rd of a tank, but probably arrive with ~60% if she didn't exceed 75. She used the nav to check, and it suggested arriving with 58%. But Friday was busy on the roads, with some queues, so they arrived with 66%, which I think is excellent for such a big car with big shoes (255mm tyres).

The Bad - After sitting from early evening to late morning, TiMmY had lost 3% the next day due to Sentry Mode. It's an absolutely excellent service, but all those cameras, sensors and warnings (if someone pushes their luck) do use up computer processing power.

The Ugly - After some relaxing time, and visiting local areas, Wifey went to charge the day before returning. Her research showed that the caravan park across the road had four chargers, 2 x 22kW, and 2 x 11kW. These were operated by the park, and you bought one hour tokens. Great ..... But on arrival she found they were now operated centrally and via an App. Yep, you've guessed it, the app wouldn't work, even when it claimed to be working TiMmY reported no power supply.

Still Ugly - No probs, off to a local Spar about half a mile away which had five chargers, varying from 11kW to 50kW. But they all operated from a central unit, and it was off/dead/unresponsive. So she rang me for a grumble and asked what was best. I asked how much charge she had and she said 29%, which I said was more than enough to get to the superchargers at Gordano Services on the M5 on the way home. I told her to select them on the nav screen as she was in the car, and it said she would arrive with 7% remaining, which she thought was tight, but I explained it was plenty spare (25 miles(ish)). By now she was getting pee'd off, and on reading the info on the nav screen she told me that only one of the 'f'ing chargers' was working!!!! I asked her if it said 'available', and she said yes, and I explained it was a high throughput SC and it means currently empty, not not-working, so they are almost certainly all working. She relaxed.

Next morning, things got Uglier! TiMmY was still at 29% (I'd checked first thing on my phone as I knew she was stressed), but now it told her that they would arrive at Gordano with just 1%. Now, for a bloke that's a challenge happily accepted, coz we are daft. But for the far more rational half of the population, that's not good news. I told her that long range 3's and Y's have about 25 miles after they reach zero, but that didn't reassure her.

The (bonus) Good - So, on the route back she made a small diversion to Chard where there was a Lidl 50kW, and a nearby Tesco 7kW. Concerned that they may be physically closed with barriers (HM Queen passing - bank Holiday Monday), they were relieved that the Lidl site was open (but shop closed), and charged at a very reasonable 28p/kWh.

And finally a bonus Bad - At Chard TiMmY decided to take the pee, and advised that they would now reach Gordano with 5% spare, but at 28p and a local coffee shop for a break and cake, Lidl was fine.


I'm not sure what the moral here is. The local chargers were a total pig for Wifey, but she was able to relatively easily find working ones on route, so that's reassuring. But had TiMmy been close to empty then that option would have gotten trickier. Another option I suppose for emergencies is 'simply' charging at someone's house, and I did suggest she knock on a door or two in the caravan park, as they'd have metered hook ups, and she could have left TiMmy charging away, perhaps at just 5A/1kW, and paid the people. That would have given her assurance of reaching Gordano.

Early days, but not necessarily fun times for all.

EricMears

Martyn1981 said:

Thought I'd post the small BEV and charging adventure that Wifey went on over the weekend.

For a 'significant' birthday, she decided to rent a holiday cottage in Dorset . . . . .

Coincidentally,  we've just got home from a few days in Dorset.  We were staying near Dorchester (in the general direction of Chard).

On the way down,  best route seemed to be via the M5, branching off cross-country at Bristol.  I found a Marstons pub near Wincanton with a pair of Osprey chargers which were both free as I arrived.  A 'freeby' from Bonnet meant I could use the charger without it being deducted from my stored credit so I left it charging whilst having lunch.  46kW took battery up to 97%  As a bonus,  I'd also checked the pub's website and got a 30% off mains voucher.

During our stay we popped into Dorchester where there are a couple of Osprey chargers at Poundbury : busier than I expected but no problems using them.  Convenient café nearby.

Came home via a sister's place near Southampton so finished off my Bonnet credit at another Marston's pub on the A31 then moved on to a Lidl store in Southampton.  Both establishments were closed (it was funeral Monday !) but car parks available.  Some problems starting the Podpoint charger but a call to helpline (answered rather quicker than usual) got that sorted and it might even turn out to have been free as it's not appeared on my app history (yet !).

Almost enough in battery to get home but I wanted to stop at Rugby services on M6 to see whether their alleged 100kW chargers would deliver more than the usual 45kW to our Leaf.  Alas,  place was crowded and several chargers not working so I moved on to Lutterworth where another pair of Osprey chargers provided 50 miles worth to guarantee getting home.  Unusually,  both chargers were in use but one became free after a 15min wait.

Admittedly a bit more effort than being able to stop at one of hundreds of garages en route to top up with diesel but really not a major problem.

Martyn1981

Thanks Eric, really interesting, and I think that reflects your better knowledge (similar case for Coastalwatch I assume) and experience, as Tesla's usual mean life is easy (too easy perhaps). I get the impression, but I may be wrong, that the number of fast chargers may be OK'ish, but it's the number of working chargers/apps that cause the problem.

I sincerely hope that the rollout of (working) chargers gets ahead of the EV adoption curve, otherwise the issues will remain for the decade, which is far from ideal.


Also small addendum -

So lots of research. Unfortunately the parking for the cottage was too far away, even for an extension lead.

Turns out the parking was closer than she'd been led to believe, so a 10m 13A ext lead we have for BEV charging would actually have worked. However, she didn't think it was OK to do (before going) without asking first, or offering to pay extra, and her brother is visiting (from Sweden) and has our Ioniq, plus that ext lead which is needed at their parents house.

The car was pretty stuffed with gear for 5, and lots of cakes and food, but would have been enough room to squeeze another of our leads in, and charging at 5A (Tesla's are flexible (5-32A)) would have been safe. So I suppose the moral there is 'better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it).

Grumpy_chap

An article about TESLA which does not blame the issue arising to the cars being EVs.
Quite refreshing as so often the link to electric cars is made so prominently that infers the cause is being EV rather than ICE
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-62996103

Tesla ordered to recall more than a million US cars

michaels

However it does still have the big 'recall' word for what is an OTA software fix so no having to book in at a dealer like 'traditional' recalls. 'Tesla issue OTA software update' I guess doesn't make such a good headline....

Martyn1981

I thought this post from @orrery was really interesting so thought I'd ask for help/advice and thoughts on here:

Martyn1981 said:

No need, lots of BEV's exceeding 150k miles already, as per my posts, and the part you quoted.

Yes, they can, but will they? Will they start to have problems with individual cells as they get older - it must be a real risk when there are between 200 and 8000 per car.

Note how reliable LEDs are - I can't remember one failing in any kit that I own. But, stick enough of them on the back of every car and drive them hard and you often see the odd one failed.

We'll need to see 3rd party battery service agents who can replace the odd cell or module to 'refresh' battery packs.

Can't format it properly, but here goes. Do individual cells need to be replaced if they fail, or does the car simply work around them, and their loss is shown in the degradation?

I was just wondering how it all works.

Grumpy_chap

I can't answer the question about battery cells, but that whole reliability query in the other thread ignored the fact that other "stuff" will go wrong making old EVs undesirable and it does not all come down to the drive-train being able to do mileages to the moon and back.

Martyn1981

Hiya GC, sorry you feel that way, I thought I did address your comments. It's interesting to hear your thoughts but as I said to you, I believe that other issues with BEV's will be worth fixing, or replacing as the vehicle itself will be sound, such as the worn steering wheel you mentioned. Whereas with an ICEV, when the engine/gearbox/clutch/exhaust start to age, it probably won't be worth fixing other parts of the vehicle, as it simply won't be economic to keep it on the road - especially for long haul and high mileage duties, where reliability is needed.

Obviously time will tell, but as I also mentioned, very high mileage BEV's already exist, so they seem to be proving the longevity of the key drivetrain components. here's an article on the TM3 mentioned:

This 2018 Tesla Model 3 Passed the 300,000-Mile Mark, Here's What You Need To Know

Now we’ve come across a Canadian Tesla Model 3 owner who claims his car, delivered in October 2018, has passed 310,000 miles (500,000 km) with no issues whatsoever. According to the owner, who goes by the name “I like piano black” on Twitter, his car is still on its original brakes and battery. He only replaced the drivetrain oil pump at 286,000 miles (460,000 km) for 250 CAD ($194).

Also here's a piece on Tesloop the LA to Las Vegas service with vehicles hitting half a million miles, but also showing the problems with some early batteries, so I'm not suggesting it's a certainty, hence my use of the word 'may', but I do still think for high mileage uses, my original statement is reasonable: 

we should consider that many ICEV's won't last past 150k miles, so the BEV may displace a second and third ICEV during its life.

I hope I'm not misleading you, but I believe I once watched an interview with Tesloop, and they explained that their high mileage, meant that an ICEV would need 1 or 2 services per month, which would also mean loss of service for those days/part days, which was something I hadn't thought of.

2019 Article - 300,000–500,000 Miles In A Tesla — How Does A Tesla Hold Up?

There have also been some major repair issues — Tesloop has replaced six batteries, all under warranty, and all because of factory or installation issues, not because of battery degradation. There has been some capacity loss, however — one Model X has lost about 23% of capacity after 330,000 miles, a reduction in range from 260 miles to 200 miles (according to Quartz, a pool of data from Tesla owners shows an average capacity loss of about 10% after 155,00 miles).

For fleet operators, it’s all about the cost per mile. Tesloop says its cost per mile for maintenance is around $0.06, which is comparable to the industry average for legacy vehicles. However, the company’s Teslas spend less time in the garage, and they’ve been serving long past the usual fleet vehicle retirement age of 100,000 miles. Sonnad predicts Tesloop’s Model 3s will serve for over 500,000 miles, and will reach a total cost per mile (including depreciation) as low as $0.18 to $0.25 per mile — far lower than the current average of $0.32 to $0.35 for legacy sedans.

Hope you don't mind me throwing lots of info your way, but it is, I think, a really interesting subject, so another memory is that of the launch event for the Tesla semi ..... so, so many years ago (come on Elon!)

I think they expect the motors and batteries to last 1m miles, but I suspect that is similar to a big diesel engine, before requiring a full rebuild. However, it would exceed the abilities of most petrol engines, and diesel has to go due to emissions and pm2.5.

I mention the Semi, as it was to use the same motor as the TM3 (and TMY), but operate 4 of them*, two per axle, but of course this is simply anecdotal, and a lot will have changed over the 5yrs since.

*I believe it's now to have 3 motors, but I don't know anymore.




Lastly, do you know of any concerns that BEV's will only last as long (or less) than an ICEV? The risk is that I may be reading and watching from a 'bubble', hence why I've only seen suggestions that the vehicles are expected to last longer. Obviously I've seen the silly comments and early anti-EV propaganda that batteries will need replacing every 5-8yrs, at great expense, but there could be reviews and comparisons showing that the batts** and motors aren't standing up as well as expected, and I've missed them. Be good to see the other side, so to speak.

** Edit - Obviously there have been some early issues, particularly with batts in some Hyundai Kona's and GM Bolt's, but I think these related to production issues with LG. And also issues with some powertrain components in the Taycan and Mach-E, due to slight undersizing causing electrical component failures, but all of these issues sound like (IMO) teething issues.