EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

I thought this might be fun, a couple of contrasting views on the speed of the EV revolution. One saying the press is wrong and things will be a lot slower, and the other suggesting the exact opposite. Kinda fun to have such diametrically opposed opinions given at roughly the same time. Personally, I'd suggest one is more data driven than the other.



So in the red corner we have the head of Toyota and the Japanese Motor Industry Body. He's not convinced the transition will be fast, and explains why what is(?) happening, isn't:

Toyota CEO says EV adoption will take longer than expected

Toyota Motor Corp. plans to keep gas-powered cars as a key part of its lineup, rejecting efforts by rivals to go fully electric amid concerns over how quickly consumers will embrace new technologies.

While the world’s largest automaker will introduce more electric vehicles in the coming years, it will also offer a range of other options, including gasoline-electric hybrids, hydrogen- and traditional fossil fuel-powered models, according to Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda, who met with reporters Thursday. 

Battery-electric vehicles “are just going to take longer than the media would like us to believe,” Toyoda, grandson of the automaker’s founder, told dealers gathered in Las Vegas. He pledged to offer the “widest possible” array of powertrains to propel cars cleanly. 

“That’s our strategy and we’re sticking to it,” he said.

The CEO said a lack of sufficient infrastructure will hold back EV adoption rates, which is a factor in its decision not to go all in on electricity.

[Just a silly thought on that last paragraph. As the World's largest car manufacturer, wouldn't it be possible for them to help with the charging infrastructure by building out a lot of super great chargers in the many markets which they supply?]





And in the green corner we have a vid from Lars Standridder, who runs the Best In Tesla Youtube Channel.

The Fall of The ICE car - EV adoption CAN'T be slowed down to 50% by 2030

Yes, of course he's biased, he's a huge Tesla fan, but he's also very well informed and knowledgeable.

And most importantly, he's simply talking about the growth in PEV's* that we have previously, and are currently seeing. He points out that the annual growth is around 50% (~60% for the first half of this year), which would work out at PEV's reaching 50% of the market in 2025. Or later in 2025 for 40% growth, 2026 at 30% growth, 2028 at 20% annual growth, and would have to fall to as low as 15% from now, for PEV's to take till 2030 to reach 50% of the market.

I'm a big believer in BEV's, RE, and PV (just as an example), but I have to admit, that I'm always shocked at the speed of their growth. I fully appreciate that humans are wired for linear processing, and we are excellent at it. But exponential growth, such as the 'S' curve adoption of new technology, is extremely hard for us to comprehend looking/thinking forward.

Fun times ahead.

*He uses PEV's (BEV's and PHEV's) as he is looking at the decline of pure ICEV's. BEV's make up about 75% of PEV's, and it looks like demand for PHEV's (as a percentage) is falling.

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

I thought this might be fun, a couple of contrasting views on the speed of the EV revolution. One saying the press is wrong and things will be a lot slower, and the other suggesting the exact opposite. Kinda fun to have such diametrically opposed opinions given at roughly the same time. Personally, I'd suggest one is more data driven than the other.



So in the red corner we have the head of Toyota and the Japanese Motor Industry Body. He's not convinced the transition will be fast, and explains why what is(?) happening, isn't:

Toyota CEO says EV adoption will take longer than expected

Toyota Motor Corp. plans to keep gas-powered cars as a key part of its lineup, rejecting efforts by rivals to go fully electric amid concerns over how quickly consumers will embrace new technologies.

While the world’s largest automaker will introduce more electric vehicles in the coming years, it will also offer a range of other options, including gasoline-electric hybrids, hydrogen- and traditional fossil fuel-powered models, according to Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda, who met with reporters Thursday. 

Battery-electric vehicles “are just going to take longer than the media would like us to believe,” Toyoda, grandson of the automaker’s founder, told dealers gathered in Las Vegas. He pledged to offer the “widest possible” array of powertrains to propel cars cleanly. 

“That’s our strategy and we’re sticking to it,” he said.

The CEO said a lack of sufficient infrastructure will hold back EV adoption rates, which is a factor in its decision not to go all in on electricity.

[Just a silly thought on that last paragraph. As the World's largest car manufacturer, wouldn't it be possible for them to help with the charging infrastructure by building out a lot of super great chargers in the many markets which they supply?]





And in the green corner we have a vid from Lars Standridder, who runs the Best In Tesla Youtube Channel.

The Fall of The ICE car - EV adoption CAN'T be slowed down to 50% by 2030

Yes, of course he's biased, he's a huge Tesla fan, but he's also very well informed and knowledgeable.

And most importantly, he's simply talking about the growth in PEV's* that we have previously, and are currently seeing. He points out that the annual growth is around 50% (~60% for the first half of this year), which would work out at PEV's reaching 50% of the market in 2025. Or later in 2025 for 40% growth, 2026 at 30% growth, 2028 at 20% annual growth, and would have to fall to as low as 15% from now, for PEV's to take till 2030 to reach 50% of the market.

I'm a big believer in BEV's, RE, and PV (just as an example), but I have to admit, that I'm always shocked at the speed of their growth. I fully appreciate that humans are wired for linear processing, and we are excellent at it. But exponential growth, such as the 'S' curve adoption of new technology, is extremely hard for us to comprehend looking/thinking forward.

Fun times ahead.

*He uses PEV's (BEV's and PHEV's) as he is looking at the decline of pure ICEV's. BEV's make up about 75% of PEV's, and it looks like demand for PHEV's (as a percentage) is falling.

Surely we know the answer and that is how fast will battery production come online?  I guess if batteries are worth enough in storage use then then might get priced out of automotive use and thus leave market share for ICE but otherwise I can't see why we won't see EV adoption at the rate they are.

Grumpy_chap

Martyn1981 said:

Toyota CEO says EV adoption will take longer than expected

The Fall of The ICE car - EV adoption CAN'T be slowed down to 50% by 2030

Of the two positions, I'd put my backing behind the second.  Certainly, with the phase out of new all-ICE planned by 2030, anyone buying from five years onwards will be doing so with that in mind.

I continually fail to understand the Toyota reluctance to embrace EV - they were, perhaps, ahead of the curve with hybrid but failed to then continue to progress.  Perhaps the costs of developing the hybrid designs were much higher than anyone understands and the need is to keep hybrid alive so that the initial development costs can be recouped.  It is hard to see that is truly the case, but what other reason do Toyota have for being so retrograde?

In fact, why do any of the legacy manufacturers continue to launch new models without an all-EV option?

Transition to EV requires four parameters to be satisfied:

1. Distance travelled per full charge
2. Charging infrastructure
3. Choice of vehicle
4. Cost of vehicle

1 & 2 seem to be largely resolved now
3 is getting there quickly
4 is the big challenge to EV adoption

Martyn1981

Hiya GC, the weird thing is that it's not just Toyota/Toyoda, unless the rest of the Japanese Motor industry is scared of them. It's also Nissan, Honda, Mazda etc. It's really weird, PHEV's appear to have found their market, and it's a relatively small percentage, and one that seems to be shrinking slightly in most countries. Also HFCV's seem to be a busted flush for cars, and most/all medium sized vehicles. Maybe some market for heavy freight.

So Toyota/Toyoda/Japan's position is quite baffling now as they appear (to me) to be arguing after the matter seems to have been decided by the market.

If I had to guess, I'd suggest you have hit the nail on the head, and they have too much money invested in PHEV's to write it off now.

I'm sure they will pivot fast, soon. Just don't know how much that may cost them. Bet the Chinese are licking their lips looking at the potential market gains.

Grumpy_chap

I suppose it is not just Japanese motor manufacturers - there are several major players that failed to move fast enough or just have the "token" EV (even if multi-branded) - Ford, Stellantis, Nissan, Jaguar.  Nissan look particularly unusual as they were among the first with the Leaf but rested on that. 

Of the legacy companies, only VAG, Mercedes, Hyundai / Kia, BMW are really making any real moves and that is to a large part all very recent.

I can imagine the failure to pivot coupled with other impacts on supply-chain right now could well see one or more of the legacy auto brands fail spectacularly.  The only saving grace (for one of them) might well be a link with TESLA.  TESLA cannot ramp up their car production fast enough, legacy auto cannot switch to electric fast enough - a joining of forces between one and the other might well work favourably for all sides.  I'm hesitant to speculate which legacy auto it will be.

Exiled_Tyke

Transition to EV requires four parameters to be satisfied:

1. Distance travelled per full charge
2. Charging infrastructure
3. Choice of vehicle
4. Cost of vehicle

1 & 2 seem to be largely resolved now
3 is getting there quickly
4 is the big challenge to EV adoption

Thanks GC.  Yep. I think you got this.   And of course these are not solved overnight but by degrees.  It's no surprise that as progress has been made on these factors then Hybrid take up is slipping back.    

For me 1,2 and 4 are not there yet, so I've had to opt for a Hybrid.  

In contrast to the examples above I find the approach of Hyundai encouraging.  Particularly with the Ioniq 5 pushing 1 and 4 but then also backing it up (in the same size & type of vehicle) with the Tucson now being produced in mild hybrid, hybrid and PHEV for those that aren't yet ready for a full EV.  Isn't this the way to go to make progress?   

shinytop

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Toyota CEO says EV adoption will take longer than expected

The Fall of The ICE car - EV adoption CAN'T be slowed down to 50% by 2030

Of the two positions, I'd put my backing behind the second.  Certainly, with the phase out of new all-ICE planned by 2030, anyone buying from five years onwards will be doing so with that in mind.

I continually fail to understand the Toyota reluctance to embrace EV - they were, perhaps, ahead of the curve with hybrid but failed to then continue to progress.  Perhaps the costs of developing the hybrid designs were much higher than anyone understands and the need is to keep hybrid alive so that the initial development costs can be recouped.  It is hard to see that is truly the case, but what other reason do Toyota have for being so retrograde?

In fact, why do any of the legacy manufacturers continue to launch new models without an all-EV option?

Transition to EV requires four parameters to be satisfied:

1. Distance travelled per full charge
2. Charging infrastructure
3. Choice of vehicle
4. Cost of vehicle

1 & 2 seem to be largely resolved now
3 is getting there quickly
4 is the big challenge to EV adoption

it's 4. 1-3 are behavioral. People can and will adapt their behaviors.  4 isn't like that and if you haven't got £30k plus you haven't got it.  We're going to run out of people who can afford an EV.  

Exiled_Tyke

it's 4. 1-3 are behavioral. People can and will adapt their behaviors.  4 isn't like that and if you haven't got £30k plus you haven't got it.  We're going to run out of people who can afford an EV.  

Yep 4 will solve a lot of the problems.  For me 1 & 2 are the deal breakers.  I can do a business trip where I set off after work drive 200-250 miles stay a night in a hotel then off to an office for a day before setting off home again.  So it's not a simple behavioural change for me. The range and infrastructure are not there for me yet nor are my clients ready to be more flexible with my schedules. 

ABrass

shinytop said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Toyota CEO says EV adoption will take longer than expected

The Fall of The ICE car - EV adoption CAN'T be slowed down to 50% by 2030

Of the two positions, I'd put my backing behind the second.  Certainly, with the phase out of new all-ICE planned by 2030, anyone buying from five years onwards will be doing so with that in mind.

I continually fail to understand the Toyota reluctance to embrace EV - they were, perhaps, ahead of the curve with hybrid but failed to then continue to progress.  Perhaps the costs of developing the hybrid designs were much higher than anyone understands and the need is to keep hybrid alive so that the initial development costs can be recouped.  It is hard to see that is truly the case, but what other reason do Toyota have for being so retrograde?

In fact, why do any of the legacy manufacturers continue to launch new models without an all-EV option?

Transition to EV requires four parameters to be satisfied:

1. Distance travelled per full charge
2. Charging infrastructure
3. Choice of vehicle
4. Cost of vehicle

1 & 2 seem to be largely resolved now
3 is getting there quickly
4 is the big challenge to EV adoption

it's 4. 1-3 are behavioral. People can and will adapt their behaviors.  4 isn't like that and if you haven't got £30k plus you haven't got it.  We're going to run out of people who can afford an EV.  

Not for a while, isn't the average sale price of a car something like £30k at the moment?

Grumpy_chap

So I just saw a nice EV for sale, quoted 200 miles range.
For my commute, that is 70 miles each way, no charging at the work place and I don't fancy adding to the commute home with a charge stop.
Is 200 miles too tight in real world midst of winter for a 140 mile journey?

It is academic as the earliest I can buy a car will be next April, but it is worth understanding the options.