EV Discussion thread

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

While 65% depreciation for a car after 3 years is not unusual, it is for a Porsche. A petrol 3 year old Porsche is still selling for around the same as it cost new. In March 2021 a 93kWh Taycan cost £116k. A petrol Carrera 4 cost £88k. The cheapest Taycan 93kWh on Autotrader is £48k. The cheapest 2021 Carrera 4 Autotrader is £88k. 

Is the correct depreciation benchmark for a Porsche Taycan the Porsche Carrera?
The Carrera is a niche out-and-out sports car.
The Taycan is a luxury saloon - would more appropriate depreciation comparators be the Jaguar XJ, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class / EQS?

Porsche do an ICE saloon (hybrid) Panamera. It cost from £72k in March 2021. The cheapest on Autotrader is £54k. The cheapest BMW 7 Series in March 2021 listed by Autocar was the 740i at a tad over £70k list price but it was heavily discounted. Carwow suggest a base price of £65k (730?) discounted to £51k. One 98k miles example is listed on Autotrader at £36.5k but most are around £38k. The Mercedes S Class started at around £76k. The cheapest 2021 car on Autotrader is £43k. I couldn’t find an EQS in March 2021 but the EQC started at £65.7k and is available on Autotrader from £25k. The Jaguar XJ was no longer being produced in 2021. 

It does seem from this that even Luxury EVs depreciate more than their ICE counterparts. 

Thing is the 'new price' for EVs purchased via sal sac or company tax relief was effectively an awful lot lower than the list price, on similar lines to your example that a BMW could have been had well below list.

Also worth noting that the current second hand car market looks nothing like the pre-covid one where 30-40% retained value after 3 years was the norm.  For most makes and models there were very low sales 3 years ago so it is not surprising 3 year old values are very different to pre-pandemic.

Yes, I would agree the used car market has changed a lot in the last 3 years and against all expectations ICE car values have remained stronger than EV values, particularly used. One would have expected that the limited supply of EVs in 2020 and 2021 would have resulted in firmer used EV prices today but, quite simply, used demand just isn’t there and the gulf between used EV supply and demand continues to increase.

Given that fleets are overwhelmingly opting for EVs and with ICE cars now rationed by the ZEV mandate, ICE car prices both new and used are only likely to get stronger while EV values will struggle. Five years ago people were talking about ICE cars being stranded assets. 

If HMG dictates manufacturers must sell 22% of their fleet as EVs and demand is only 16% then there will be a massive imbalance of supply and demand which can only be rectified by price adjustments - upwards for ICE cars and down for EVs, with a consequent impact on used car values. 

JKenH

Sorry, this is from the Telegraph but I couldn’t find the story elsewhere..

Britain threatens sanctions to curb import of cheap EVs from China

Britain will use “robust” trade sanctions to prevent China from flooding the car market with cheap electric vehicles (EVs), the Transport Secretary has said.

Mark Harper issued the warning on Thursday when asked about the risk posed by Chinese brands pushing into Europe with new low-cost models.

He pointed to the post-Brexit trade remedies regime, which can levy tariffs on imports deemed to have unfair advantages, as a way to stop Chinese EVs from inundating Western markets.

The comments are the clearest indication yet that ministers are keen to crack down on incoming EVs from the Far East.

This will fuel speculation that the Government will launch an investigation into claims that Chinese EVs have benefited from significant state support, following similar investigations already underway in the European Union and the US.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/14/britain-threatens-sanctions-china-curb-imports-electric-cars/

JKenH

Article in today’s Telegraph pointing out concerns about the widespread adoption of electric ambulances. Fine for urban areas but not in rural areas. It seems from the Telegrapgh report that the NHS has become obsessed with prioritising green credentials over patient safety. 

Fears for patients as NHS rolls out net zero electric ambulances

Next month, electric ambulances will be piloted across swathes of the country. Under the scheme, electric ambulances will be trailed across the North West, East of England, Yorkshire, South West and London at a cost of around £150,000 each.

The West Midlands has already introduced the vehicles, although last year board papers from the West Midlands Ambulance Service revealed major concerns.

An evaluation of the pilot scheme found the ambulances took up to four hours to charge and travelled an average of 70 miles between charging, with the papers warning “range and recharge time is a significant limiting factor”.

While the vehicles had a range of 100 miles, which would cover a shift in urban areas, this would not be the case from most of its hubs, it states, adding: “Rural areas in particular are covering twice this mileage and more in a shift.” The report says that, as a minimum, ambulances need to be able to cover 160 miles.

Standard ambulances can cover up to 800 miles a day and be filled up in just minutes.

One emergency medical consultant said: “If they could put the charging points at hospitals I would have less of a concern: waits are so long at Emergency Departments you could charge a jumbo jet. My worry is that they are looking to have charging points only in the ambulance station, so that’s even more time lost.”

[A whistleblower] said NHS leaders’ “pervasive eco ideology” meant they were putting “environmental concerns ahead of patient welfare”.

He cited an example where clinicians agreed a plastic cannula “would improve patient safety and comfort for a group of their patients, but could not use the product because it contained more plastic than the current product”. It is cheaper and safer than the metal needles used in patients requiring regular blood work, dialysis or chemotherapy, where the metal can damage blood vessels.

“I’ve never been in a situation [until now] where you can’t even get beyond that conversation. They said there were several products that they are no longer able to use, because the trust has decided that they’re not environmentally friendly enough,” he added.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/14/nhs-electric-ambulances-concern-net-zero-above-patients/

For those who cannot access the Telegraph online, the Daily Mail has published some of the Telegraph report here https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13199681/Fears-patients-NHS-launches-electric-ambulances-significantly-limited-range-recharge-time.html

JKenH

I had seen the 6500 private EV sales in January and February but hadn’t seen the previous year’s figure for comparison. While EV sales to fleets are on the up private sales are down. Perhaps, that’s ok in the short term, but there are only so many sales that can be made to fleets and if targets are to be reached then the private buyer has to be engaged. 

Electric cars sales to drivers fall by almost a fifth

About 35,900 new battery EVs were registered in January and February overall, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), an increase of 21pc compared to a year earlier.

However, just 6,500 of those were bought by private consumers with the rest sold to businesses or fleet operators such as car rental firms.

Sales to individuals fell from 7,900 a year earlier, a drop of 17pc.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/05/electric-cars-sales-drivers-fall-17pc/

JKenH

Two contrasting views on the state of the used EV market. What struck me in particular was Autotrader’s reference to the supply of used EVs being down 1.1% year on year. Surely as new EV sales have been growing substantially in 2021 -23 (60% growth last 2 years) more EVs must be coming on to the market now so why is supply falling? Perhaps, rather than defleet vehicles at a loss, fleets are moving into leasing used vehicles as Octopus has done. 

'We don't want your electric cars': Why half of used motor dealers are reluctant to buy second-hand EVs

Owners of electric vehicles (EVs) are being warned to 'expect little enthusiasm' when trying to sell their battery-powered cars to dealerships, a poll of second-hand motor traders by HonkHonk suggests.

More than one in three dealers said they are 'much less interested' than a year ago in taking an EV off somebody's hands, while one in eight are 'a bit less interested' having seen thousands of pounds being wiped off the value of these cars when prices plummeted last year.

However, Auto Trader paints a slightly different picture of the existing level of demand for second-hand EVs, based on activity on its website. In fact, it says market health for electric cars is far greater than petrols at the moment. 

In its February Retail Price Index, which is based on analysis of around 800,000 motors for sale on its platform, it said it is seeing plenty of demand for second-hand EVs.

Appetite for used electric cars 'surged a massive 81.5 per cent year-on-year in February,' the report states.

It said this combined with a -1.1 per cent fall in supply, which in turn drove a whopping 83.6 per cent increase in what it calls 'market health'.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/electriccars/article-13173397/We-dont-want-electric-cars-half-used-motor-dealers-reluctant-buy-second-hand-EVs.html

1961Nick

JKenH said:

I had seen the 6500 private EV sales in January and February but hadn’t seen the previous year’s figure for comparison. While EV sales to fleets are on the up private sales are down. Perhaps, that’s ok in the short term, but there are only so many sales that can be made to fleets and if targets are to be reached then the private buyer has to be engaged. 

Electric cars sales to drivers fall by almost a fifth

About 35,900 new battery EVs were registered in January and February overall, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), an increase of 21pc compared to a year earlier.

However, just 6,500 of those were bought by private consumers with the rest sold to businesses or fleet operators such as car rental firms.

Sales to individuals fell from 7,900 a year earlier, a drop of 17pc.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/05/electric-cars-sales-drivers-fall-17pc/

The SMMT's private/fleet comparison data will continue to be worthless until they collect figures for the number of SalSac vehicles. It's likely that Octopus alone are now placing 1000 vehicles a month.

Netexporter

Fleet sales now means more secondhand stock in a couple of years time. I imagine the majority of private buyers buy used vehicles.

JKenH

Netexporter said:

Fleet sales now means more secondhand stock in a couple of years time. I imagine the majority of private buyers buy used vehicles.

That’s what you would think but Autotrader says supply is down 1.1%. In January and February 2022 24850 EVs were sold compared to 9776 in the same months in 2021, so you would expect supply in February 2024 to be double what it was in 2023, rather than down. 

Grumpy_chap

1961Nick said:

The SMMT's private/fleet comparison data will continue to be worthless until they collect figures for the number of SalSac vehicles. It's likely that Octopus alone are now placing 1000 vehicles a month.

I don't think that is easily available.

The shock / headlines might well come when those SS vehicles reach 3 or 4 year end-of-lease and people suddenly realise (or remember) they were only leasing and not buying a car and that lease, unlike PCP, does not have an automatic balloon payment option to purchase.  Cue "mis-sold" screams.  Unless, of course, the residual value is low so the option to buy is dirt cheap...

paul991

with  the new Dacia spring on sale so for 15 k and many Chinese  brands to follow its  best to hold on for a bargain