EV Discussion thread

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

While 65% depreciation for a car after 3 years is not unusual, it is for a Porsche. A petrol 3 year old Porsche is still selling for around the same as it cost new. In March 2021 a 93kWh Taycan cost £116k. A petrol Carrera 4 cost £88k. The cheapest Taycan 93kWh on Autotrader is £48k. The cheapest 2021 Carrera 4 Autotrader is £88k. 

Is the correct depreciation benchmark for a Porsche Taycan the Porsche Carrera?
The Carrera is a niche out-and-out sports car.
The Taycan is a luxury saloon - would more appropriate depreciation comparators be the Jaguar XJ, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class / EQS?

1961Nick

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Just an interesting statistic. On Autotrader there are 568 Tesla for sale, 2021 to 2023 and 554 Porsche Taycan. Across 2021, 2022 and 2023 Tesla sold 138,002 cars while over the same period Porsche sold 15,589 Taycans. One in every 28 Taycans on the road are currently being advertised while for Tesla the figure is one in 243. (If you include the number of Teslas for sale through Tesla and other channels then the number increases to 714 or 1 in 193)

What does this tell us? People don’t like their Taycans, or they are selling very slowly despite the low (relatively) low prices, or maybe something else…?

It's probably something simple like every MD or CEO took a company Taycan on a 36 month contract hire deal & they're all hitting the used market at the same time.

Tesla have a 4 year warranty whereas I think Porsche are 3 years & that could also be a factor.

The Taycans listed on Autotrader by year.

2021 96
2022 112
2023 346

Tesla by year

2021 249
2022 251
2023  73

That's a lot of 2023 Taycans for sale. The number of 1 year old results is usually the smallest for most searches. Could it be due to ex-demonstrator cars, ex-management cars or pre-reg cars?

The other big difference is that all the 2023 Taycans will be sold through dealerships & therefore will be listed on Autotrader. The vast majority of 2023 Model 3s will be sold by Tesla & therefore won't be on Autotrader.

michaels

JKenH said:

There is a press release currently going around which says among cars up to 10 years old EVs are 59% less prone to breakdown. I just wanted to add some context. At the end of 2019 there were less than 100,000 EVs on the road while now there are around 1 million so 90% of EVs are 4 years old or less. The comparative figure for ICE cars is 20-25%. (The 4 peak years for car sales in the UK were 2014 to 2017 with sales exceeding 3.1 million in 2016 but by 2023 ICE car registrations had fallen to 1.6m. Roughly 75-80% of the 22 million or so ICE cars up to 10 years old are over 4 years old.)

EVs are 59% less likely to break down, says Start Rescue

“Our figures show electric cars ranging from new to 10-years old are 59% less prone to breakdowns than ICE cars,” says Lee Puffett, Managing Director of Start Rescue. “This might surprise some motorists, but with more than a million EVs now on the UK’s roads it shows drivers can choose an EV confident that they are less likely to be stranded at the roadside.”

https://www.motorfinanceonline.com/news/evs-are-59-less-likely-to-break-down-says-start-rescue/

Agree if they are simply looking at all cars and they have equal coverage at all ages.  However they could have adjusted for age and mileage (or alternatively those having breakdown cover could be skewed toward solder cars making the comparison even less meaningful).  Lies, damned lies and statistics....

JKenH

Almost a fifth of drivers more likely to buy used EV in next five years as prices fall – survey

Nearly a fifth of motorists are up for buying a used EV in the next five years because of prices dropping.

That’s according to new research by AA Cars after an online sample of 11,983 UK adults found that 16% of drivers said falling prices made them more likely to buy a second-hand EV in the next five years.

Meanwhile, another 2% said they were more likely to buy one in the next 12 months.

Almost one in 10 drivers (9%) said that when they do buy an EV, it’ll be a new one.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/almost-a-fifth-of-drivers-more-likely-to-buy-used-ev-in-next-five-years-as-prices-fall-survey/299237

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Just an interesting statistic. On Autotrader there are 568 Tesla for sale, 2021 to 2023 and 554 Porsche Taycan. Across 2021, 2022 and 2023 Tesla sold 138,002 cars while over the same period Porsche sold 15,589 Taycans. One in every 28 Taycans on the road are currently being advertised while for Tesla the figure is one in 243. (If you include the number of Teslas for sale through Tesla and other channels then the number increases to 714 or 1 in 193)

What does this tell us? People don’t like their Taycans, or they are selling very slowly despite the low (relatively) low prices, or maybe something else…?

It's probably something simple like every MD or CEO took a company Taycan on a 36 month contract hire deal & they're all hitting the used market at the same time.

Tesla have a 4 year warranty whereas I think Porsche are 3 years & that could also be a factor.

The Taycans listed on Autotrader by year.

2021 96
2022 112
2023 346

Tesla by year

2021 249
2022 251
2023  73

That's a lot of 2023 Taycans for sale. The number of 1 year old results is usually the smallest for most searches. Could it be due to ex-demonstrator cars, ex-management cars or pre-reg cars?

The other big difference is that all the 2023 Taycans will be sold through dealerships & therefore will be listed on Autotrader. The vast majority of 2023 Model 3s will be sold by Tesla & therefore won't be on Autotrader.

Of the 40 2021-23 Teslas listed for sale under Teslas CPO programme 4 are from 2023. 

JKenH

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

While 65% depreciation for a car after 3 years is not unusual, it is for a Porsche. A petrol 3 year old Porsche is still selling for around the same as it cost new. In March 2021 a 93kWh Taycan cost £116k. A petrol Carrera 4 cost £88k. The cheapest Taycan 93kWh on Autotrader is £48k. The cheapest 2021 Carrera 4 Autotrader is £88k. 

Is the correct depreciation benchmark for a Porsche Taycan the Porsche Carrera?
The Carrera is a niche out-and-out sports car.
The Taycan is a luxury saloon - would more appropriate depreciation comparators be the Jaguar XJ, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class / EQS?

Porsche do an ICE saloon (hybrid) Panamera. It cost from £72k in March 2021. The cheapest on Autotrader is £54k. The cheapest BMW 7 Series in March 2021 listed by Autocar was the 740i at a tad over £70k list price but it was heavily discounted. Carwow suggest a base price of £65k (730?) discounted to £51k. One 98k miles example is listed on Autotrader at £36.5k but most are around £38k. The Mercedes S Class started at around £76k. The cheapest 2021 car on Autotrader is £43k. I couldn’t find an EQS in March 2021 but the EQC started at £65.7k and is available on Autotrader from £25k. The Jaguar XJ was no longer being produced in 2021. 

It does seem from this that even Luxury EVs depreciate more than their ICE counterparts. 

michaels

JKenH said:

Grumpy_chap said:

JKenH said:

While 65% depreciation for a car after 3 years is not unusual, it is for a Porsche. A petrol 3 year old Porsche is still selling for around the same as it cost new. In March 2021 a 93kWh Taycan cost £116k. A petrol Carrera 4 cost £88k. The cheapest Taycan 93kWh on Autotrader is £48k. The cheapest 2021 Carrera 4 Autotrader is £88k. 

Is the correct depreciation benchmark for a Porsche Taycan the Porsche Carrera?
The Carrera is a niche out-and-out sports car.
The Taycan is a luxury saloon - would more appropriate depreciation comparators be the Jaguar XJ, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class / EQS?

Porsche do an ICE saloon (hybrid) Panamera. It cost from £72k in March 2021. The cheapest on Autotrader is £54k. The cheapest BMW 7 Series in March 2021 listed by Autocar was the 740i at a tad over £70k list price but it was heavily discounted. Carwow suggest a base price of £65k (730?) discounted to £51k. One 98k miles example is listed on Autotrader at £36.5k but most are around £38k. The Mercedes S Class started at around £76k. The cheapest 2021 car on Autotrader is £43k. I couldn’t find an EQS in March 2021 but the EQC started at £65.7k and is available on Autotrader from £25k. The Jaguar XJ was no longer being produced in 2021. 

It does seem from this that even Luxury EVs depreciate more than their ICE counterparts. 

Thing is the 'new price' for EVs purchased via sal sac or company tax relief was effectively an awful lot lower than the list price, on similar lines to your example that a BMW could have been had well below list.

Also worth noting that the current second hand car market looks nothing like the pre-covid one where 30-40% retained value after 3 years was the norm.  For most makes and models there were very low sales 3 years ago so it is not surprising 3 year old values are very different to pre-pandemic.

Magnitio

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Just an interesting statistic. On Autotrader there are 568 Tesla for sale, 2021 to 2023 and 554 Porsche Taycan. Across 2021, 2022 and 2023 Tesla sold 138,002 cars while over the same period Porsche sold 15,589 Taycans. One in every 28 Taycans on the road are currently being advertised while for Tesla the figure is one in 243. (If you include the number of Teslas for sale through Tesla and other channels then the number increases to 714 or 1 in 193)

What does this tell us? People don’t like their Taycans, or they are selling very slowly despite the low (relatively) low prices, or maybe something else…?

It's probably something simple like every MD or CEO took a company Taycan on a 36 month contract hire deal & they're all hitting the used market at the same time.

Tesla have a 4 year warranty whereas I think Porsche are 3 years & that could also be a factor.

The Taycans listed on Autotrader by year.

2021 96
2022 112
2023 346

Tesla by year

2021 249
2022 251
2023  73

That's a lot of 2023 Taycans for sale. The number of 1 year old results is usually the smallest for most searches. Could it be due to ex-demonstrator cars, ex-management cars or pre-reg cars?

The other big difference is that all the 2023 Taycans will be sold through dealerships & therefore will be listed on Autotrader. The vast majority of 2023 Model 3s will be sold by Tesla & therefore won't be on Autotrader.

The vast majority of the 2023 Taycan's that are for sale are pre-registered cars with extremely low mileage. This is the final batch of production before the changeover to the new model from Q2 2024. It's not uncommon for demand to drop for a model that is being replaced, especially when it comes with significant improvements.

JKenH

Some manufacturers continue to be very bullish about prospects for their EV offerings despite being stuck with old stock they can’t shift.

Porsche 'Overwhelmed' By Orders For Electric Macan: CEO

"We’re overwhelmed by orders coming in for the electric Macan," Blume said at the brand's annual press conference and 2023 recap in Leipzig today. "We’re confident it’s going to be a hit." 

https://insideevs.com/news/712077/porsche-macan-electric-orders-2024/

JKenH

Magnitio said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Just an interesting statistic. On Autotrader there are 568 Tesla for sale, 2021 to 2023 and 554 Porsche Taycan. Across 2021, 2022 and 2023 Tesla sold 138,002 cars while over the same period Porsche sold 15,589 Taycans. One in every 28 Taycans on the road are currently being advertised while for Tesla the figure is one in 243. (If you include the number of Teslas for sale through Tesla and other channels then the number increases to 714 or 1 in 193)

What does this tell us? People don’t like their Taycans, or they are selling very slowly despite the low (relatively) low prices, or maybe something else…?

It's probably something simple like every MD or CEO took a company Taycan on a 36 month contract hire deal & they're all hitting the used market at the same time.

Tesla have a 4 year warranty whereas I think Porsche are 3 years & that could also be a factor.

The Taycans listed on Autotrader by year.

2021 96
2022 112
2023 346

Tesla by year

2021 249
2022 251
2023  73

That's a lot of 2023 Taycans for sale. The number of 1 year old results is usually the smallest for most searches. Could it be due to ex-demonstrator cars, ex-management cars or pre-reg cars?

The other big difference is that all the 2023 Taycans will be sold through dealerships & therefore will be listed on Autotrader. The vast majority of 2023 Model 3s will be sold by Tesla & therefore won't be on Autotrader.

The vast majority of the 2023 Taycan's that are for sale are pre-registered cars with extremely low mileage. This is the final batch of production before the changeover to the new model from Q2 2024. It's not uncommon for demand to drop for a model that is being replaced, especially when it comes with significant improvements.

I agree and the EV industry does seem particularly prone to the Osborne Effect. We saw it with the Model 3 and e-Tron as well as the Taycan. You don’t get that as much with ICE cars as the technology is more mature and new models bring only marginal improvements. Given, though, EVs are largely leased and sales follow replacement/end of contract cycles you wouldn’t expect it to be so dramatic but the rumours of a replacement may cause user choosers to switch to a recently released competitor model rather than buy something that will be old hat. Manufacturers don’t help themselves by trailing the new models but in this digital age it is hard to keep anything under wraps. 

Tesla in 2021 sold almost 35k Model 3s in the UK. The Model Y took some sales from it in 2022 causing it to drop to 19k then in 2023 with rumours widely circulating about the Highland refresh it fell to 13k, that’s just 37% of its 2021 volume in an EV market that rose some 60% from 2021 to 2023.

The Ford Fiesta despite numerous updates remained the top selling car in the UK for 12 years in succession.