EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Magnitio said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Just an interesting statistic. On Autotrader there are 568 Tesla for sale, 2021 to 2023 and 554 Porsche Taycan. Across 2021, 2022 and 2023 Tesla sold 138,002 cars while over the same period Porsche sold 15,589 Taycans. One in every 28 Taycans on the road are currently being advertised while for Tesla the figure is one in 243. (If you include the number of Teslas for sale through Tesla and other channels then the number increases to 714 or 1 in 193)

What does this tell us? People don’t like their Taycans, or they are selling very slowly despite the low (relatively) low prices, or maybe something else…?

It's probably something simple like every MD or CEO took a company Taycan on a 36 month contract hire deal & they're all hitting the used market at the same time.

Tesla have a 4 year warranty whereas I think Porsche are 3 years & that could also be a factor.

The Taycans listed on Autotrader by year.

2021 96
2022 112
2023 346

Tesla by year

2021 249
2022 251
2023  73

That's a lot of 2023 Taycans for sale. The number of 1 year old results is usually the smallest for most searches. Could it be due to ex-demonstrator cars, ex-management cars or pre-reg cars?

The other big difference is that all the 2023 Taycans will be sold through dealerships & therefore will be listed on Autotrader. The vast majority of 2023 Model 3s will be sold by Tesla & therefore won't be on Autotrader.

The vast majority of the 2023 Taycan's that are for sale are pre-registered cars with extremely low mileage. This is the final batch of production before the changeover to the new model from Q2 2024. It's not uncommon for demand to drop for a model that is being replaced, especially when it comes with significant improvements.

It appears Tesla is worried about the Osborne Effect of the impending Model Y Juniper refresh.



Also Tesla are applying some reverse psychology to pull Model Y sales forward into Q1. Price rises have also been announced for some European markets. 

Grumpy_chap

With a tinge of sadness, my Focus, which I gave to my Nephew, has gone to the scrapyard in the sky.
He is replacing it with a 2020 Kona EV, £15k, so a new joiner to the EV club.  That is a private buyer and no work schemes etc.

JKenH

Grants now available for EV drivers without off-street parking

The Department for Transport (DfT) has today announced that £185 million of Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (LEVI) funding is being made available now to electric vehicle (EV) drivers who own or rent their homes but have  on-street parking.

Previously, these grants were only available to EV drivers with exclusive use of their own private parking space.

£350 grants will be offered to provide up to 75% of the cost of purchasing and installing a charge point.

EV drivers will require permission from their council to install a cross-pavement charging solution, and applications need to be made online.

https://www.zap-map.com/news/grants-now-available-ev-drivers-without-street-parking

JKenH

I don’t know about anybody else but my reading of this suggests the U.S. Government is just kicking the can down the road. 

The EPA May Finalize Tough New Rules To Boost EV Sales This Week

A major regulatory order this week would decide the near-term fate of the electric vehicle movement in the U.S., impacting not only millions of Americans but also how the world’s second-biggest polluting country tackles climate change.

This week, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is poised to finalize emissions rules that will effectively require a certain percentage—as much as two-thirds by 2032—of new cars to be all-electric, Politico and other outlets have reported in recent days. The ruling could be announced as soon as this Wednesday.

These standards could first loosen the tough EV requirements between 2027 and 2030, but then mandate an aggressive ramping up of EV sales from 2031. In other words, these revised rules would give car companies a bit of a pass on EVs in the short term, while still pushing for a mostly-electric future starting in the next decade.

https://insideevs.com/news/712831/tough-new-epa-rules-to-boost-ev-sales/

JKenH

Sales of younger EVs record highest ever February market share

Sales of EVs sub-two-years-old have recorded a market share of 11.2%, their highest ever in February according to an INDICATA UK market report.

A 24% monthly increase in EVs sub-one-years-old entering the market contributed to this success following investment in incentive campaigns.

https://www.motortrader.com/motor-trader-news/automotive-news/sales-younger-evs-record-highest-ever-february-market-share-19-03-2024

Edited to include this article which gives a bit more explanation but less relevant heading which I have omitted.

Sales of sub-two-year-old EVs recorded their highest ever market share of 11.2% in February.

According to Indicata UK’s latest Market Watch, this figure was assisted by a 24.9% monthly rise in sub-one-year old cars entering the market as manufacturers invested in tactical incentive campaigns to drive sales of nearly new EVs.

https://www.am-online.com/news/used-cars/2024/03/19/indicata-flags-prospect-of-used-ev-prices-falling-below-ice-cars

JKenH

The fleet market appears optimistic that the 22% target for BEV sales set out in the ZEV Mandate will be achieved without any sort of tactical pricing from OEMs. I’m not so sure. I think the big fleet operators are committed to BEVs, and of course they make up a significant portion of sales, but outside this market I suspect, at least from numbers to date that there is less of an appetite. We will see what the March registration figures from the SMMT, due around 4th April, tell us.

One of the interesting comments in the video is that ICE cars may become premium vehicles and residual values of ICE cars and vans will increase. 
 

I will add another article, again optimistic, in the next post. 

ZEV mandate impacting fleet car and van orders 

Duncan Webb, fleet director at the AA, believes that, with new 2024-plate registrations in March, the car industry will be back on track to hit the required 22% zero-emission car rate within the next few months.

He also does not expect that in order to hit that figure, manufacturers will introduce any sort of tactical pricing. However, he told Fleet News at 10: “If you're doing bulk orders, though, there certainly seems to be an attempt to try and link the number of ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles) to the number of alternative fuel (vehicles) you order.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/zev-mandate-impacting-fleet-car-and-van-orders

JKenH

Another bullish report from the fleet sector on BEV penetration. Are these people living in a bubble?

Surprisingly, though, poor engagement from staff is considered one of the top five factors preventing businesses from switching or investing further. Is this going to cause issues as more staff are required to drive EVs? I saw in a Facebook post, about DPD vans blocking chargers having been left overnight on rapids, that the (franchised) drivers are having BEV vans forced on them with no facilities provided for charging. Great for DPD’s image but not so great if as a driver you are picking up the tab for charging or having to waste an hour of your day sitting on a charger. 

Fleets to only have fully electric cars within four years

The pace of electrification is quickening, with fleets expecting to be just operating battery electric vehicles (BEVs) within four years, according to a new Lex Autolease survey.

It suggests that the Government’s decision to push back ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035, has not dented the fleet sector’s enthusiasm for electric cars.

Almost two-thirds (64%) of the respondents said they are now more likely to consider EVs or increase the number in their fleets following the delay, compared to 23% who are now less likely.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleets-to-only-have-fully-electric-cars-within-four-years-says-lex

Edit: formatting

JKenH

A contrasting view is expressed within this article , again from FleetNews.

Profitability of fully electric cars increases manufacturer focus on PHEVs

Martin Ward, former head of manufacturer relationships at Cap HPI and now manufacturer relationship manager at UK Vehicle Data, has concerns about any rapid expansion of new EVs entering the market and the impact this will have on residual values.

He said: “It doesn’t matter if you’re pro-EV or not, you just have to look at the facts.

“Multiple OEMs are rolling back on their EV production plans and we have a 22% zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate in place.

“In a UK new car market of two million that would be 440,000 new EVs hitting UK roads this year and these vehicles will be entering into the used market in three years. What is this going to do to used EV values?”

Ward’s advice to fleets is to take a step back and look at what some of the major car manufacturers are doing and continue to spread the risk across different fuel types, including plug-in hybrid, rather than “putting all your eggs in one basket with BEV”.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/profitability-of-fully-electric-cars-increases-focus-on-phevs

edit:formatting

Grumpy_chap

JKenH said:

One of the interesting comments in the video is that ICE cars may become premium vehicles and residual values of ICE cars and vans will increase. 

Perhaps because only the rich will be able to afford ICE, with the inherent inefficiency, expensive servicing and maintenance demands.

I rather feel that legacy auto (or anyone) hailing the benefits of ICE over EV will be proven by history to be similar to Triumph Motorcycles (I think) who declared, when the Japanese first exported their nice, clean, quiet (comparatively) motorbikes to UK, that no-one wanted clean bikes - it was part of the experience to suffer the noise, dirt and oil.

Reed_Richards

When I am driving my EV on the B setting and |I take my foot of the accelerator then the car slows down quite quickly.  Do my brake lights come on even though I don't press the brake pedal?  Or could I take someone tailgating me by surprise?