EV Discussion thread

JKenH

Tesla slashes Model 3 prices again to £38,790

This is great news for consumers looking to buy a new Tesla Model 3 – but how will it affect their finances once they’re ready to trade it in for something else? The vehicle valuation service, CAP HPI, reckons the outlook is bleak. It’s forecasting a decline in value for second-hand Teslas, partly thanks to CEO Elon Musk’s volatile pricing strategy.

CAP’s forecasts suggest that a new Tesla Model 3 Long Range, bought in January 2023 for £57,435, will only be worth £31,850 by January 2024 (providing it’s only travelled 10,000 miles). That’s a 44 percent decrease in value over 12 months, which is head and shoulders above the depreciation rates for Tesla’s rival electric car manufacturers.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/tesla/tesla-price-cuts/

This article published yesterday is now out of date as Tesla have removed the headline discount and replaced it with Loot Box points (aka free supercharging - see my previous post). The point of posting is the resale value predicted by CAP HPI.

silvercar

My Tesla Model 3 LR is a year old. I have been diligently recording every charge in kwh and price for the last year. I am now going to stop as it seems a bit unnecessary after having completed a whole year as a comparison with the previous car, a BMW diesel 5 series.

Our home electric bill is high, so it hasn't been worth moving to an EV tariff as the increased day rate would make it more expensive, coupled with a destination charger located less than a 10 minute walk from home that gives free charging when you pay for parking. So for £3/ £3.90 depending on time I can get a full charge on the car, adding generally 80%+ of the 75kwH battery. In the last month, I have added the OVO charge anytime add on to my electric account, which gives a supposed 10p/kwH rate of OVO scheduled charging - home charging actually seems to be costing around 14p/kwH overall using that. 







 

JKenH

Having disappeared earlier today the Tesla M3 inventory cars with £4,200 discount at £38790 are now listed again. If you know someone with a Tesla and you can take delivery by close of play on Friday (very unlikely) you will get an additional 9000 free supercharger miles to share worth £4,500. It’s a bit theoretical but if you could get the car and you/your referrer could use the free miles then you are effectively getting a new M3 for just £34,290.

The problem for Tesla, as I see it, is if you were looking to buy a new M3, you now have that sub £35k figure in your head and will feel short changed if the price goes up again and possibly walk away. Does anyone else think like that? I know Tesla prices rose in the past and that didn’t impact sales but that was in a climate of chip shortages, rising manufacturing costs and generally rising prices and a shortage of supply. 

I suspect a lot of people, for instance those buying on leases, won’t be deterred by these pricing shenanigans but it is all adding to the uncertainty for individuals and businesses about Tesla pricing and residual values. 

Tesla may feel they can fine tune demand by short term price adjustments but have they considered the longer term impact of such frequent price changes? I watched a video last night (link below) about used car prices and one of the reasons dealers are shying away from EVs is pricing volatility. This isn’t going to help. 

https://youtu.be/YBhKTSAw4lg

Edit: corrected - Friday not Thursday as I originally wrote. Being retired I don’t need to know what day of the week it is - and often don’t.

JKenH

silvercar said:

My Tesla Model 3 LR is a year old. I have been diligently recording every charge in kwh and price for the last year. I am now going to stop as it seems a bit unnecessary after having completed a whole year as a comparison with the previous car, a BMW diesel 5 series.

Our home electric bill is high, so it hasn't been worth moving to an EV tariff as the increased day rate would make it more expensive, coupled with a destination charger located less than a 10 minute walk from home that gives free charging when you pay for parking. So for £3/ £3.90 depending on time I can get a full charge on the car, adding generally 80%+ of the 75kwH battery. In the last month, I have added the OVO charge anytime add on to my electric account, which gives a supposed 10p/kwH rate of OVO scheduled charging - home charging actually seems to be costing around 14p/kwH overall using that. 







 

It’s good to see an honest appraisal of charging costs - not everyone can charge their EV for less than 2p a mile. Having solar and 2 years of paying 5.5p/kWh for 5 hours of overnight charging I was one of the lucky ones who could. As you point out there is a cost in daytime rates (unless you have battery storage) of cheap car charging tariffs. 

I no longer have my EV but if I had I would currently be conflicted about the best tariff to be on. I am in the process of switching to Octopus Flux (for the summer months) which has 3 import rates (approx 20/33/46p per kWh depending on time of day) which is expensive for charging but gives me the option to export any excess solar at 22/35p per kWh. 

Just how do you work out the real cost of charging your EV? Is it the cheap overnight tariff you pay or is it the opportunity cost of exporting at 22/35p per kWh? Everyone’s circumstances will vary but for those with solar (that’s a significant proportion of EV owners) and without a home storage battery the real cost of charging at home isn’t the cheap overnight tariff we might think it to be. 

If you have a large solar array, then even with batteries, you will end up exporting the majority of your solar PV generation in summer - just how much can you self consume on a sunny day in summer? Even with a modest array you might export 20kWh/day for say 100 days and that could return you around £700pa on Octopus Flux. 

If you charge your car with your own solar PV generation the reality is it might be costing you in excess of 20p/kWh. 

Sometimes you just have to eschew the temptation to go for the cheap overnight home charging tariff or plugging in to your own solar and look at the bigger picture. 

michaels

V2H and a night rate of 4.5p till May 24. Excess PV goes into the hot water tank displacing gas as tank is filled overnight via immersion but this is not enough for our 10 showers per day.

However it is annoying to only be getting an effective 10p/4.5p for each solar unit on top of the fit but 4.5p for all paid for units means this is definitely a nice problem to have.

JKenH

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

silvercar

JKenH said:

silvercar said:

My Tesla Model 3 LR is a year old. I have been diligently recording every charge in kwh and price for the last year. I am now going to stop as it seems a bit unnecessary after having completed a whole year as a comparison with the previous car, a BMW diesel 5 series.

Our home electric bill is high, so it hasn't been worth moving to an EV tariff as the increased day rate would make it more expensive, coupled with a destination charger located less than a 10 minute walk from home that gives free charging when you pay for parking. So for £3/ £3.90 depending on time I can get a full charge on the car, adding generally 80%+ of the 75kwH battery. In the last month, I have added the OVO charge anytime add on to my electric account, which gives a supposed 10p/kwH rate of OVO scheduled charging - home charging actually seems to be costing around 14p/kwH overall using that. 







 

It’s good to see an honest appraisal of charging costs - not everyone can charge their EV for less than 2p a mile. Having solar and 2 years of paying 5.5p/kWh for 5 hours of overnight charging I was one of the lucky ones who could. As you point out there is a cost in daytime rates (unless you have battery storage) of cheap car charging tariffs. 

I no longer have my EV but if I had I would currently be conflicted about the best tariff to be on. I am in the process of switching to Octopus Flux (for the summer months) which has 3 import rates (approx 20/33/46p per kWh depending on time of day) which is expensive for charging but gives me the option to export any excess solar at 22/35p per kWh. 

Just how do you work out the real cost of charging your EV? Is it the cheap overnight tariff you pay or is it the opportunity cost of exporting at 22/35p per kWh? Everyone’s circumstances will vary but for those with solar (that’s a significant proportion of EV owners) and without a home storage battery the real cost of charging at home isn’t the cheap overnight tariff we might think it to be. 

If you have a large solar array, then even with batteries, you will end up exporting the majority of your solar PV generation in summer - just how much can you self consume on a sunny day in summer? Even with a modest array you might export 20kWh/day for say 100 days and that could return you around £700pa on Octopus Flux. 

If you charge your car with your own solar PV generation the reality is it might be costing you in excess of 20p/kWh. 

Sometimes you just have to eschew the temptation to go for the cheap overnight home charging tariff or plugging in to your own solar and look at the bigger picture. 

Tbh we are quite pleased with that, it's half the cost of fuel on the previous diesel car. We don't have solar or batteries, so it is what it is.

Within the figures isn't the joy of driving an electric compared to previous cars. They are leased, so we have the fixed cost of the lease that includes insurance as well as all the usual stuff.

As a further point of interest, the other car is now a Nissan Leaf 39kwh. It isn't able to be charged on the OVO EV tariff, so charging is back to the car park for say 30kwh for the car park charge of £3/ £3.90 or the home charger at the capped rate. So charging that is twice as expensive as the Tesla, though I seem to be getting a higher miles/kwh possibly due to more local trips and less motorway driving. 

JKenH

silvercar said:

JKenH said:

silvercar said:

My Tesla Model 3 LR is a year old. I have been diligently recording every charge in kwh and price for the last year. I am now going to stop as it seems a bit unnecessary after having completed a whole year as a comparison with the previous car, a BMW diesel 5 series.

Our home electric bill is high, so it hasn't been worth moving to an EV tariff as the increased day rate would make it more expensive, coupled with a destination charger located less than a 10 minute walk from home that gives free charging when you pay for parking. So for £3/ £3.90 depending on time I can get a full charge on the car, adding generally 80%+ of the 75kwH battery. In the last month, I have added the OVO charge anytime add on to my electric account, which gives a supposed 10p/kwH rate of OVO scheduled charging - home charging actually seems to be costing around 14p/kwH overall using that. 







 

It’s good to see an honest appraisal of charging costs - not everyone can charge their EV for less than 2p a mile. Having solar and 2 years of paying 5.5p/kWh for 5 hours of overnight charging I was one of the lucky ones who could. As you point out there is a cost in daytime rates (unless you have battery storage) of cheap car charging tariffs. 

I no longer have my EV but if I had I would currently be conflicted about the best tariff to be on. I am in the process of switching to Octopus Flux (for the summer months) which has 3 import rates (approx 20/33/46p per kWh depending on time of day) which is expensive for charging but gives me the option to export any excess solar at 22/35p per kWh. 

Just how do you work out the real cost of charging your EV? Is it the cheap overnight tariff you pay or is it the opportunity cost of exporting at 22/35p per kWh? Everyone’s circumstances will vary but for those with solar (that’s a significant proportion of EV owners) and without a home storage battery the real cost of charging at home isn’t the cheap overnight tariff we might think it to be. 

If you have a large solar array, then even with batteries, you will end up exporting the majority of your solar PV generation in summer - just how much can you self consume on a sunny day in summer? Even with a modest array you might export 20kWh/day for say 100 days and that could return you around £700pa on Octopus Flux. 

If you charge your car with your own solar PV generation the reality is it might be costing you in excess of 20p/kWh. 

Sometimes you just have to eschew the temptation to go for the cheap overnight home charging tariff or plugging in to your own solar and look at the bigger picture. 

Tbh we are quite pleased with that, it's half the cost of fuel on the previous diesel car. We don't have solar or batteries, so it is what it is.

Within the figures isn't the joy of driving an electric compared to previous cars. They are leased, so we have the fixed cost of the lease that includes insurance as well as all the usual stuff.

As a further point of interest, the other car is now a Nissan Leaf 39kwh. It isn't able to be charged on the OVO EV tariff, so charging is back to the car park for say 30kwh for the car park charge of £3/ £3.90 or the home charger at the capped rate. So charging that is twice as expensive as the Tesla, though I seem to be getting a higher miles/kwh possibly due to more local trips and less motorway driving. 

The Leaf is underrated. It’s a bit frumpy inside but very sorted and pleasant to drive. I loved the e-Pedal and the Birds Eye camera. Interesting that you find the economy better than the Tesla.

1961Nick

JKenH said:

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

The Jan/Feb registration figure for Tesla in China was around 69000 vehicles. BYD sold 162,000 BEVs worldwide although most of them will be in China. I can't see where the FT is getting the 5x multiple from unless they're including hybrids or comparing Tesla's Feb registrations with BYD's production for the year to date?

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

The Jan/Feb registration figure for Tesla in China was around 69000 vehicles. BYD sold 162,000 BEVs worldwide although most of them will be in China. I can't see where the FT is getting the 5x multiple from unless they're including hybrids or comparing Tesla's Feb registrations with BYD's production for the year to date?

Hiya. Only a guess, but in China 'they' have the classification NEV for new energy vehicles. This can cause some confusion, as NEV's (in China*) are plug in EV's, so include PHEV's. I think BYD has largely moved away from straight ICEV's now (brilliant move), and roughly about half their sales are PHEV's, half BEV's.

But not to knock BYD, they have achieved so much, so fast. Their results for 2022 are positive, only a small net margin of about 4% (v's 17% for Tesla), but BYD were expanding a lot last year, and most of the Chinese BEV producers aren't profitable.

Have to see how things go this year, with BYD's rumoured production slow down, with the Chinese economy weakening.

*In the US, NEV's are neighbourhood electric vehicles, which are smaller and slower BEV's that are allowed to operate on certain slow speed roads, and communities, often golfcarts, or similar.


Edit - Addendum. Just seen this article on Chinese PEV sales. I have only skim read it, but it shows BYD having just over 5x the sales of Tesla for Jan/Feb. However the tables are colour coded to show PHEV's and BEV's. When I totaled the BEV numbers I got roughly 136k for BYD and 61k for Tesla. And 73k v's 34k for Feb alone.

33% Plugin Vehicle Market Share In China — February 2023 Sales Report