EV Discussion thread

JKenH

michaels said:

JKenH said:

I’m not known for citing CleanTechnica but I couldn’t pass on this one even if it’s a bit late.

Elon Musk: Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead, $20,000 City Car Is Coming

The great and powerful Musk then announced he had ordered his minions to come up with a simple battery electric car with 150 miles of range that can carry four people and a sheep dog wherever they need to go comfortably and safely. He said it might even have a few knobs and switches, as well as a hatchback for putting groceries and such inside.

“I can’t imagine why I didn’t do this sooner. It was right there in my first Master Plan, but I got blinded by becoming richer than Croesus and let my ambition cloud my judgement. I’m sorry,” Musk said. 

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/01/elon-musk-tesla-cybertruck-is-dead-20000-city-car-is-coming/

I wonder if this was published yesterday morning?

I think that was the intention but it was late appearing - perhaps deliberately late. Many a true word said in jest, as they say.

JKenH

Electric cars being written off after minor bumps

Roughly half of low-mileage EVs being salvaged have suffered minor battery damage – which can be caused by something as innocuous as mounting a kerb – according to Copart, an auction platform.

A senior source in the insurance industry said car manufacturers were not sharing diagnostic data because they were wary of third parties botching repairs. As a result, insurance companies are reluctant to attempt repairs and assume responsibility should anything go wrong.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/electric-cars-cheaper-to-scrap-than-repair-after-minor-pran/

I had seen similar stories from the US of EVs with minor damage being written off and assumed the problem was with availability of spare parts and high salvage values aggravated by low used trade values. That problem is not unique to EVs. Five years ago I bought an MX5 Mk3 from Copart for conversion to a race car and was amazed how little damage there was apparent. It could have gone back on the road with just a replacement rear light cluster.

JKenH

Time being taken for EV chargers at petrol station ‘almost laughable’

New electric vehicle charging points at a Cheltenham petrol station are still not working, about 18 months after they were installed 

A Shell spokesperson said: “Electricity connections require a number of different services. While Shell Recharge installs a charge point, the distribution network operator (DNO) is responsible for providing network capacity and electrical infrastructure.

We are working closely with DNOs across the country. However, there are times where we have installed a charge point at a location but need to wait for the DNO to provide the required connection and/or electrical infrastructure.

https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/time-being-taken-ev-chargers-8322794

How many times do we hear this? 

JKenH

I have copied this from the BEV News thread as some may feel my comments are contentious (I hope not) and start a discussion 

Martyn1981 said:

And the results from the Norwegian jury are in! Looks like they are bouncing against a temporary limit, trying to get the last ~10%, with PEV's at ~90% for a couple of years now.. Should be fun seeing when that last bit goes, maybe it'll hang on for a few years?

Tesla Model Y Takes Over 38% Of Norway’s Auto Sales In March!

Norway’s plugin electric vehicles took 91.1% share of the auto market in March, down from 91.9% year on year. The slight dent in share came from a drop in plugin hybrid volume, against overall market growth. Overall auto volume was 19,366 units, up some 19% YoY, and the highest March sales since at least 2016 (though compensating from a hangover earlier in Q1).

Why, given the penalties on ICEVs and incentives for EVs currently in place in Norway is it taking so long to replace the last 10% of ICEV sales? The prediction, below, was for it to be all over bar the shouting in April 2022 but ICEVs are clinging on. Will the same happen in the UK?

Norway bans gas car sales in 2025, but trends point toward 100% EV sales as early as April

https://electrek.co/2021/09/23/norway-bans-gas-cars-in-2025-but-trends-point-toward-100-ev-sales-as-early-as-april/

We hear a lot of talk about the S-curve in relation to EVs but is it appropriate to expect EVs to follow that when their adoption is heavily influenced by government intervention both in terms of financial inducement and regulation? The situation is not the same as other technological revolutions such as digital cameras or CD players where the advantages of the new technology were overwhelming for most users. 

EV growth has not been driven by an overwhelming technical advantage but rather by government policies, not just in the UK but in most countries, intended to achieve an outcome which is at odds with what a significant part of the population may actually want. The penalties/incentive balance in Norway such that it is very hard to resist the move to EVs but Norway is a very rich country and can afford to bankroll the revolution. Even there, though, some of the perks of EV ownership are being withdrawn as the costs begin to add up and reality sets in.

In the UK, the government just doesn’t have deep enough pockets to force the revolution past a certain market penetration level and it may not have the political will to do so either. Why has HMG frozen fuel duty for another 12 months, abandoned EV grants and introduced plans for VED on EVs? It appears that, rather than face down an electorate which is not yet ready for wholesale EV adoption, an attempt is being made to force through changes on the supply side with EV and therefore by implication, ICE quotas on manufacturers. That isn’t going to work -  all it will do is force up prices of ICE cars but we have seen there is  less elasticity in demand than might previously have been assumed with ICE prices and waiting lists rising strongly while EV prices are having to be slashed with little effect - but it gives the current government breathing space to claim it is pursuing a net zero agenda without tackling the electorate head on.  

It might be too early to assume after just 3 months data that EV adoption rates in the UK have stalled but given the much higher EV adoption rates seen in late 2022 I don’t think anyone was expecting the percentage of EV sales to fall back to the levels we are seeing. It could be a temporary supply side problem with some manufacturers but not with Tesla whose sales fell despite price cuts and where Tesla goes, others follow. 

The EV revolution might take longer than we are expecting unless governments pump a lot more money in like the U.S. are doing. The alternative is to force the change through by penalising ICE sales and risk a poll tax style revolt. HMG prefers to kick the can down the road and I suspect many other governments will do the same. The technology is not sufficiently compelling for the change to happen purely by customer demand. 

JKenH

The Daily Mail gets criticised for misleading stories about EVs but it seems the specialist EV press are no better. What is it they say - don’t let the truth get in the way of a good story?

Tesla Model Y leads record EV market share in the UK

Tesla delivered a record number of Model Y vehicles in the UK last month – leading to a record market share for electric vehicles in the country.

https://electrek.co/2023/04/05/tesla-model-y-leads-record-ev-market-share-uk/

shinytop

JKenH said:

I have copied this from the BEV News thread as some may feel my comments are contentious (I hope not) and start a discussion 

Martyn1981 said:

And the results from the Norwegian jury are in! Looks like they are bouncing against a temporary limit, trying to get the last ~10%, with PEV's at ~90% for a couple of years now.. Should be fun seeing when that last bit goes, maybe it'll hang on for a few years?

The EV revolution might take longer than we are expecting unless governments pump a lot more money in like the U.S. are doing. The alternative is to force the change through by penalising ICE sales and risk a poll tax style revolt. HMG prefers to kick the can down the road and I suspect many other governments will do the same. The technology is not sufficiently compelling for the change to happen purely by customer demand. 

The hard truth is that a modern ICE car is, all things considered apart from emissions, just better at what it does than a BEV.  Just like ff boilers vs heat pumps.  A relatively few enthusiasts on forums like these doesn't change this.

That's the challenge. It has to be done but it won't be easy.

 

EricMears

shinytop said:

The hard truth is that a modern ICE car is, all things considered apart from emissions, just better at what it does than a BEV.  

 

Why say "apart from emissions" .  The main thrust of the change is to help reduce national emissions and the minor inconvenience of having a maximum range that's only ten times more than a normal day's use is no great hardship.

Martyn1981

Too obvious?

Reg : Alright, but APART from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health... what have the Romans ever done for us? 

JKenH

EricMears said:

shinytop said:

The hard truth is that a modern ICE car is, all things considered apart from emissions, just better at what it does than a BEV.  

 

Why say "apart from emissions" .  The main thrust of the change is to help reduce national emissions and the minor inconvenience of having a maximum range that's only ten times more than a normal day's use is no great hardship.

But what percentage of the car buying public take that into account? Most people say they are concerned about emissions until it hits them in the pocket. Why do so many people who have a lot to say about emissions still heat their home and cook with gas or oil? 

Concern about emissions isn’t the reason most people chose an electric car. It may be why you chose one but for many people I suspect the lure of BIK savings has been a bigger factor. Yes, we all want to be able to say we are doing our bit for emissions and when being surveyed about buying an EV, yes, you will say you are concerned about the environment but then say EVs are too expensive - well only if you don’t really care. 

Why do so many people in surveys say their next car will be an EV and in 2023 84% of those buying new then go out and buy an ICE car? Of those buying secondhand the proportion is even greater. A secondhand E-Golf is now cheaper to buy than an ICE Golf. A Nissan Leaf is cheaper than a Qashqai. I haven’t checked the figures but at times this year I suspect a 4 year old Model 3 wasn’t that more expensive than a similar age BMW or Mercedes. 

If the majority of people do genuinely care about emissions then we need to ask why EV take up, particularly secondhand, is so low. Why don’t I have an EV, now? 

What we say and what we do are two different things

It’s no good a bunch of EV enthusiasts on forums telling each other how great EVs are and ignoring what is going on and what people are thinking out in the real world. Simply blaming the fossil fuel industry and the Daily Mail for putting out FUD doesn’t explain the poor take up.

The only way we will get 90% of people buying new EVs rather than ICEVs is a combination of penalties and bribes that simply aren’t sustainable. 

ABrass

Or time.

EVs won't always cost more than ICEs. And petrol won't always be this cheap.

We're at 18% plugin at the moment I believe. Roughly one in five isn't a bunch of EV enthusiasts on a bulletin board.