EV Discussion thread

ABrass

Isnt there still  a big difference between the first two months in a quarter and the last month for Tesla in terms of China deliveries?

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

Isnt there still  a big difference between the first two months in a quarter and the last month for Tesla in terms of China deliveries?

Yes, typically they export in the first two months, so that the ships can arrive, and cars be 'delivered' for end of quarter accounting. They are unwinding this policy, or at least Elon said they would, but there still seems to be a big discrepancy.

If you're interested, registration data from China, suggests Tesla's Mch deliveries will be ~60k. So quite a lot higher than Jan or Feb, possibly close to their sum.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

The Jan/Feb registration figure for Tesla in China was around 69000 vehicles. BYD sold 162,000 BEVs worldwide although most of them will be in China. I can't see where the FT is getting the 5x multiple from unless they're including hybrids or comparing Tesla's Feb registrations with BYD's production for the year to date?

Hiya. Only a guess, but in China 'they' have the classification NEV for new energy vehicles. This can cause some confusion, as NEV's (in China*) are plug in EV's, so include PHEV's. I think BYD has largely moved away from straight ICEV's now (brilliant move), and roughly about half their sales are PHEV's, half BEV's.

But not to knock BYD, they have achieved so much, so fast. Their results for 2022 are positive, only a small net margin of about 4% (v's 17% for Tesla), but BYD were expanding a lot last year, and most of the Chinese BEV producers aren't profitable.

Have to see how things go this year, with BYD's rumoured production slow down, with the Chinese economy weakening.

*In the US, NEV's are neighbourhood electric vehicles, which are smaller and slower BEV's that are allowed to operate on certain slow speed roads, and communities, often golfcarts, or similar.


Edit - Addendum. Just seen this article on Chinese PEV sales. I have only skim read it, but it shows BYD having just over 5x the sales of Tesla for Jan/Feb. However the tables are colour coded to show PHEV's and BEV's. When I totaled the BEV numbers I got roughly 136k for BYD and 61k for Tesla. And 73k v's 34k for Feb alone.

33% Plugin Vehicle Market Share In China — February 2023 Sales Report

That makes more sense. The FT have used the BYD figure for PHEV & BEV to reach the headline 5x. Comparing BEV sales the figure is around 2x. Between them they are totally dominant in the Chinese BEV market with nobody else even close.

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

The Jan/Feb registration figure for Tesla in China was around 69000 vehicles. BYD sold 162,000 BEVs worldwide although most of them will be in China. I can't see where the FT is getting the 5x multiple from unless they're including hybrids or comparing Tesla's Feb registrations with BYD's production for the year to date?

Hiya. Only a guess, but in China 'they' have the classification NEV for new energy vehicles. This can cause some confusion, as NEV's (in China*) are plug in EV's, so include PHEV's. I think BYD has largely moved away from straight ICEV's now (brilliant move), and roughly about half their sales are PHEV's, half BEV's.

But not to knock BYD, they have achieved so much, so fast. Their results for 2022 are positive, only a small net margin of about 4% (v's 17% for Tesla), but BYD were expanding a lot last year, and most of the Chinese BEV producers aren't profitable.

Have to see how things go this year, with BYD's rumoured production slow down, with the Chinese economy weakening.

*In the US, NEV's are neighbourhood electric vehicles, which are smaller and slower BEV's that are allowed to operate on certain slow speed roads, and communities, often golfcarts, or similar.


Edit - Addendum. Just seen this article on Chinese PEV sales. I have only skim read it, but it shows BYD having just over 5x the sales of Tesla for Jan/Feb. However the tables are colour coded to show PHEV's and BEV's. When I totaled the BEV numbers I got roughly 136k for BYD and 61k for Tesla. And 73k v's 34k for Feb alone.

33% Plugin Vehicle Market Share In China — February 2023 Sales Report

That makes more sense. The FT have used the BYD figure for PHEV & BEV to reach the headline 5x. Comparing BEV sales the figure is around 2x. Between them they are totally dominant in the Chinese BEV market with nobody else even close.

Nice little throwaway factoid - In 2022 BYD built more BEV's than all of Germany's legacy auto put together.

JKenH

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Tesla’s price war in China backfires as BYD sales surge

FT appear particularly strict on copywriter so no quotes. The essence of the article is that in January and February (combined) BYD sold 5 times as many electric cars in China as Tesla. 

https://www.ft.com/content/01680a54-c7ff-45b1-89bc-08932d6533cc

The Jan/Feb registration figure for Tesla in China was around 69000 vehicles. BYD sold 162,000 BEVs worldwide although most of them will be in China. I can't see where the FT is getting the 5x multiple from unless they're including hybrids or comparing Tesla's Feb registrations with BYD's production for the year to date?

Hiya. Only a guess, but in China 'they' have the classification NEV for new energy vehicles. This can cause some confusion, as NEV's (in China*) are plug in EV's, so include PHEV's. I think BYD has largely moved away from straight ICEV's now (brilliant move), and roughly about half their sales are PHEV's, half BEV's.

But not to knock BYD, they have achieved so much, so fast. Their results for 2022 are positive, only a small net margin of about 4% (v's 17% for Tesla), but BYD were expanding a lot last year, and most of the Chinese BEV producers aren't profitable.

Have to see how things go this year, with BYD's rumoured production slow down, with the Chinese economy weakening.

*In the US, NEV's are neighbourhood electric vehicles, which are smaller and slower BEV's that are allowed to operate on certain slow speed roads, and communities, often golfcarts, or similar.


Edit - Addendum. Just seen this article on Chinese PEV sales. I have only skim read it, but it shows BYD having just over 5x the sales of Tesla for Jan/Feb. However the tables are colour coded to show PHEV's and BEV's. When I totaled the BEV numbers I got roughly 136k for BYD and 61k for Tesla. And 73k v's 34k for Feb alone.

33% Plugin Vehicle Market Share In China — February 2023 Sales Report

That makes more sense. The FT have used the BYD figure for PHEV & BEV to reach the headline 5x. Comparing BEV sales the figure is around 2x. Between them they are totally dominant in the Chinese BEV market with nobody else even close.

Yes, it would appear that we are talking about all plug ins not just BEVs. (I apologise that it wasn’t  clear from my post). BYD’s market share (of plug ins in China) for the first two months rose from 34% to 40%. BYD are expecting first quarter sales to jump 80% y-o-y. 

Edit: from another source I saw that BYD’s PHEV sales are accelerating faster than their BEV sales. 

BYD plug-in car sales results:

• BEVs: 90,639 (up 110% year-over-year)
• PHEVs: 101,025 (up 128% year-over-year)
• Total: 191,664 (up 119% year-over-year)

https://insideevs.com/news/655825/byd-plugin-car-sales-february2023/

JKenH

Car makers must sell 22% EVs in 2024 or face huge fines under tough proposals

This will allow EV specialists like Tesla and Polestar to cash in by selling their additional credits earned over the set allowances.

Car makers unable to meet their targets, even with credits, will be fined, with the government proposing a £15,000 penalty for every non-electric car and £18,000 per non-electric van they miss their target by.

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/car-makers-must-sell-22-evs-in-2024-or-face-huge-fines-under-tough-proposals/282071

While this announcement will no doubt please the eco lobby I wouldn’t be surprised if UK manufactures vote with their feet. Germany has recognised the political implications of pushing too hard against public opinion and commercial interests. We will learn the hard way.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/electric-vehicles-divide-opinion-as-car-loving-germany-goes-to-polls

We need to provide a compelling case (practical not ideological) for the switch that will convince the whole population that EVs are a better option. At one stage I was convinced that EVs were the better option but time demonstrated otherwise. 

We can’t just bulldoze these changes through like some Soviet state. 

ABrass

It's easy to hit. You work out how many EVs you think you can sell in the year, how many ICEs you have and do the maths.

If you've got a surplus you sell the credits to JLR or Fiat.
If you've got a shortfall you buy more credits from Tesla or you stop selling as many ICEs.

Its a tried and tested and effective way to drive up EV sales and to make manufacturers actually provide stock to the EU.

The numbers are about right too. Last year was 16% EV,  that's something like 40% growth which is in line with historical trends.

This is what California has done and what the EU has done. It's nothing new.

JKenH

Not enough is being done to make people want to buy electric cars. It’s one thing to tell a manufacturer to sell a certain quota but getting people to buy them is another. It all boils down to supply and demand. The two have to balance. The government are trying to do the same thing with gas boilers mandating that boiler manufacturers will have to sell a certain quota of heat pumps or face fines. 

The government has set out its net zero ambitions but unfortunately the public aren’t buying into them in sufficient numbers. It isn’t the (car or boiler) manufacturers’ fault the government prescribed product isn’t selling in sufficient numbers. The product simply isn’t attractive enough at the price it is being offered or in some cases it is fundamentally unsuitable.

Heat pump take up could be improved by attractive electricity tariffs but for many homes a heat pump is still not the right product irrespective  of fuel cost. Is that the boiler manufacturers’ fault?

Same with BEVs. The government has made them very attractive (almost irresistible) to a certain (small) group of new car buyers but the current poor take up of used EVs shows that, for a majority  EVs aren’t what they think they need - for whatever reasons. The government instead of listening to car buyers and finding out why they don’t buy EVs just takes its advice  green lobbyists who (almost by definition) are out of touch with the general car driving population. Promises to spend £x million on charging infrastructure over the next x years isn’t suddenly going to cause a surge in demand that fundamentally isn’t there. 

Put the infrastructure in place first and then (if you have to) issue mandates - not the other way round. 

1961Nick

The blanket £15,000 penalty doesn't make sense either because it incentivises manufacturers to concentrate on premium models with high margins rather than city cars. The city car market is the area where EV choice is poor & prices are disproportionally higher than a similar ICE vehicle.

JKenH

Yahoo finance have reported 20% gross margins for BYD.

BYD, the Warren Buffett-backed “new energy” vehicle maker, reported quarterly profitfor the fourth quarter of $1.06 billion (7.3 billion yuan), up from $87.4 million (602 million yuan) a year earlier. That represents over a 1,100% return, or 11-fold increase, year over year.

Gross margins for the automaker increased to 20.3%, surging past the 3.7% it notched a year ago.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/byd-reports-strong-sales-growth-despite-tesla-price-cuts-145457642.html