EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

Many secondhand EVs already cost the same as or in some cases less than the ICE equivalent but people aren’t buying them.

I have just done a search on Autotrader for 2019 Mk7 Golf’s and E-Golf’s excluding Cat S etc up to 50k miles. I have excluded a private sale E-Golf which was much cheaper but here is a comparison of a few around 40-45k miles. The prices are very similar. 

Why won’t petrol always be this cheap? Isn’t the narrative that we have passed peak oil demand and prices will fall so that it is no longer economic to extract oil. If petrol is going to keep going up perhaps I should invest my pension in Oil majors instead of renewables. 

Because a lack of demand will ruin the busines models that exist to extract, refine, ship and sell Petrol.

Because it will be taxed more heavily in the future.

Because cost to extract is only rising.


I'm not sure what you're trying to say with proof that, for one moment in time, there were three EV golfs and three Petrol Golfs for sale at the same time.

Yep. Plus it's in the interests of the oil majors to cut supply to maintain prices and profits, as seen just this week:

Why did OPEC cut oil production? Key reasons explained

JKenH

ABrass said:

JKenH said:

We must also realise that the high speed of uptake to date was initially among those who were very environmentally conscious, perhaps had solar panels and convenient home charging and perhaps a second car and has then been driven on by those for whom BIK advantages (SalSac and company cars) made the proposition irresistible. Having exhausted these markets progressing further will be more difficult. 

That's a bold prediction, you believe that EV growth will slow down now, both in the UK and Globally?

It’s not really a prediction more a concern based on Q1 EV sales having lost momentum and the reluctance of the car buying public to buy them used even though they are now widely available. Car buyers’ attitudes to used EVs are IMO a better reflection of true demand for EVs as a product rather than new sales which are to a significant extent driven by financial incentives to either companies or individuals. 

Having owned an EV and gone back to ICE I am not convinced that the merits of EVs are sufficiently compelling to sway the majority of the population to leave their ICEVs and that is one reason second sales of EVs are so poor.  Some of the advantages promised by EVs a couple of years ago such as lower fuel costs and better residuals have been eroded by recent events and financially they may seem a bit of an unknown quantity after a lifetime’s experience of ICEVs. A lot of people got their fingers burned in the last year by purchasing an EV at the wrong time and maybe that is a risk others don’t want to take. 

I really don’t have the answers - only the questions. New and used EV sales have stalled in the last 3 months and there presumably is some reason for that. One can say it isn’t a problem and everything will be alright on the night or one can ask why? That’s what I am doing essentially and at the same time putting forward my thoughts - it might be complete rubbish but can anyone else explain why EVs aren’t flying out the showroom doors as they should be doing if the S curve genuinely is in play.

My comments related to the UK rather than globally. Governments in other countries have more latitude to implement measures to drive the transition by either coercion (e.g. China) or inducement (as Norway, having the financial resources) have done. 

1961Nick

UK BEV sales are likely to show signs of plateauing until there's a long range (250+ miles) B segment car available for close to £20,000. The likes of the Zoe is £10,000 too expensive to have mass market appeal. A Tesla Model 2 & offerings from BYD should get close to those metrics in the near future. 

ABrass

When did sales lose momentum again?

They've been growing by greater than 10% every month so far this year.

https://insideevs.com/news/656187/uk-plugin-car-sales-february2023/

1961Nick

ABrass said:

When did sales lose momentum again?

They've been growing by greater than 10% every month so far this year.

https://insideevs.com/news/656187/uk-plugin-car-sales-february2023/

The rate of increase is slowing down & the media has to find a way of manufacturing as much negative EV copy as they can.

JKenH

ABrass said:

When did sales lose momentum again?

They've been growing by greater than 10% every month so far this year.

https://insideevs.com/news/656187/uk-plugin-car-sales-february2023/

As a % of the new car market. 2022 as a whole averaged 16.6%, January 2023 13.1%, February 2023 16.5%, March 2023 16.2%, 2023 Q1 15.4%.

ABrass

EV supply isn't ramping up that fast for the UK

There have been no new entrants to the UK market and none of the existing manufacturers have announced increased production volumes.

Tesla are probably the only sales limited company, or were until they cut prices.

When BYD start shipping here in bulk then we'll see a significant jump again.

Martyn1981

True, and the UK now has to compete with other RHD countries (like Australia) for Tesla's now as new markets are opened. But the start of the year is always a bit slower, and it gives the negative nancies some hope. Same thing with RE, storage etc.. But time always wins out.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

True, and the UK now has to compete with other RHD countries (like Australia) for Tesla's now as new markets are opened. But the start of the year is always a bit slower, and it gives the negative nancies some hope. Same thing with RE, storage etc.. But time always wins out.

Keep it friendly. As per the original post (below) - no name calling please. 

JKenH said:

As some of you will be aware Martyn1981 has clarified the purpose of the BEV news thread he started - “the intention for this thread was to enjoy the transport revolution and share BEV news. That might even be described as a 'cheerleading thread' I suppose, and I'm not sure why that would be wrong on a Green & Ethical Board.  But it's definitely not a discussion thread, and of course in no way prevents anyone from creating discussion threads on BEV's.” Martyn1981 has renamed his original thread as Battery Electric Vehicle News Thread / BEV Cheerleading Thread ;-).

I have therefore started a new thread where discussion can take place on matters EV related (including PHEVs) and to include also AFVs such as HFCVs. The thread is open to everyone whatever they want to discuss, whether it is in the news or based on their own personal experiences, cost of running an EV, charging etc, good or bad. If a post on the BEV News/BEV Cheerleading thread interests you and you want to discuss it please copy it across here. Any point of view is welcome on the subject of EVs/AFVs but I would request no comments of a personal nature or name calling please.

1961Nick

There's a problem comparing UK monthly BEV figures because they're often skewed by Tesla's quarterly targets. More linear deliveries from Berlin help, but boatloads of the 3 & Y from China every quarter end are still significant.