Energy news in general

ariarnia

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

It would take a government department a lot longer than an hour to calculate the EPG rates and go through all the levels of checking required.  I doubt they had any advance notice of the rates from Ofgem either.

But government have known this will be the situation for a while - if they were going to change the EPG support they should of announced their intentions a lot earlier (or at least Jeremy Hunt shouldn't of dismissed it in interview).

why would you think that? there a non-ministerial goverment body and the energy minster apoints there ceo. there job is to implement goverment policy. i would expect them to talk to each other before an important anouncement like this. 

I would guess Ofgem only finalised the cap level late on Friday.  It goes back to your point that if government had known in advance then why couldn't they get the rates out today?  

that wasnt my point. my point was almost the oposite. i'm saying if they wanted to they could make the anouncement on the same day.

its not like they have to do it from scratch today. how ofgem work out the cap is well understood and anyone has been able to work out a close estemate for weeks so even if the exact figure wasnt decided until friday then everything could be agreed on paper so the actual pence of the discounts just needs to be typed into a pre written and approved press release

i mean if its the increase to the 3000 cap and there definitely sticking with it then its not like theres really anything to decide or sign of is there?

the decision has already been made when that anouncement was made back in november it was just the cost/budget thats still a ? and thats not going to change because theres no way to predict how much energy people will use over the next 3 months. 

so my point was the delay could mean

they might be thinking about changing things thanks to back bench/political pressure
or waiting to see how people react to the ofgem and media today
or they might not want it to take up news time for the brexit anouncement 
or they want to announce it the same time as something else (whatever there spending the money on) and thats not ready yet
or something else like the bloke that was going to do the calculations was on half term holiday ... 

MattMattMattUK

ariarnia said:

MattMattMattUK said:

What_time_is_it said:

If you were in control of the Government money machine and could see that energy wholesale prices are falling would you make an announcement now or leave it until as late as possible?  Personally, I am not sure that the EPG is required given that everyone’s monthly energy bill will fall from Spring through to Autumn. If the Government has any spare cash then there are other key priorities that need to be funded: not least, the Defence budget.

I would weigh up the trade off between providing certainty and ensuring the best possible decision is taken. 
I'm not convinced that the government is valuing clarity and certainty at all regarding energy prices, and this is having a negative effect on people's ability to understand and have faith in the current system.
It's a shambles.

I would say it is far from a shambles, the price cap has been announced on schedule and that schedule is well known and clearly laid out. The government has stated that the EPG will rise to £3k, there has been nothing from Hunt or Sunak that indicates that they intend to suspend that rise. 

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

They said that they would publish the EPG rates for April onwards no later than the 17th March, as far as I am aware that has not been superseded. They could have done lots of things, but they seem to be sticking to what they have already said, I do not see that them sticking to the schedule they have laid out is "a shambles", nor does it indicate a change of mind.

Just to make clear, I am not defending this government, most of them are not fit for public office, but when it comes to the EPG the whole thing has been clear from the start. 

MattMattMattUK

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

It would take a government department a lot longer than an hour to calculate the EPG rates and go through all the levels of checking required.  I doubt they had any advance notice of the rates from Ofgem either.

But government have known this will be the situation for a while - if they were going to change the EPG support they should of announced their intentions a lot earlier (or at least Jeremy Hunt shouldn't of dismissed it in interview).

why would you think that? there a non-ministerial goverment body and the energy minster apoints there ceo. there job is to implement goverment policy. i would expect them to talk to each other before an important anouncement like this. 

I would guess Ofgem only finalised the cap level late on Friday.  It goes back to your point that if government had known in advance then why couldn't they get the rates out today?  

that wasnt my point. my point was almost the oposite. i'm saying if they wanted to they could make the anouncement on the same day.

its not like they have to do it from scratch today. how ofgem work out the cap is well understood and anyone has been able to work out a close estemate for weeks so even if the exact figure wasnt decided until friday then everything could be agreed on paper so the actual pence of the discounts just needs to be typed into a pre written and approved press release

i mean if its the increase to the 3000 cap and there definitely sticking with it then its not like theres really anything to decide or sign of is there?

the decision has already been made when that anouncement was made back in november it was just the cost/budget thats still a ? and thats not going to change because theres no way to predict how much energy people will use over the next 3 months. 

so my point was the delay could mean

they might be thinking about changing things thanks to back bench/political pressure
or waiting to see how people react to the ofgem and media today
or they might not want it to take up news time for the brexit anouncement 
or they want to announce it the same time as something else (whatever there spending the money on) and thats not ready yet
or something else like the bloke that was going to do the calculations was on half term holiday ... 

The delay could mean lots of things, but it is not actually a delay, it is them sticking to the original schedule, so it likely means nothing. 

They may choose to throw around more electoral bribe, but at the moment that is unlikely to be politically expedient as we are unlikely to see an election until Q3-Q4 2024 so whatever bungs they want to give will be given closer to that. From a position of government finances not raising the EPG target to £3,000 or extending the EBSS handouts would be a very bad policy as with warmer weather in Q2 actual costs per month would be expected to fall even with the rise in unit cost.

SnakePlissken

MattMattMattUK said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

It would take a government department a lot longer than an hour to calculate the EPG rates and go through all the levels of checking required.  I doubt they had any advance notice of the rates from Ofgem either.

But government have known this will be the situation for a while - if they were going to change the EPG support they should of announced their intentions a lot earlier (or at least Jeremy Hunt shouldn't of dismissed it in interview).

why would you think that? there a non-ministerial goverment body and the energy minster apoints there ceo. there job is to implement goverment policy. i would expect them to talk to each other before an important anouncement like this. 

I would guess Ofgem only finalised the cap level late on Friday.  It goes back to your point that if government had known in advance then why couldn't they get the rates out today?  

that wasnt my point. my point was almost the oposite. i'm saying if they wanted to they could make the anouncement on the same day.

its not like they have to do it from scratch today. how ofgem work out the cap is well understood and anyone has been able to work out a close estemate for weeks so even if the exact figure wasnt decided until friday then everything could be agreed on paper so the actual pence of the discounts just needs to be typed into a pre written and approved press release

i mean if its the increase to the 3000 cap and there definitely sticking with it then its not like theres really anything to decide or sign of is there?

the decision has already been made when that anouncement was made back in november it was just the cost/budget thats still a ? and thats not going to change because theres no way to predict how much energy people will use over the next 3 months. 

so my point was the delay could mean

they might be thinking about changing things thanks to back bench/political pressure
or waiting to see how people react to the ofgem and media today
or they might not want it to take up news time for the brexit anouncement 
or they want to announce it the same time as something else (whatever there spending the money on) and thats not ready yet
or something else like the bloke that was going to do the calculations was on half term holiday ... 

The delay could mean lots of things, but it is not actually a delay, it is them sticking to the original schedule, so it likely means nothing. 

They may choose to throw around more electoral bribe, but at the moment that is unlikely to be politically expedient as we are unlikely to see an election until Q3-Q4 2024 so whatever bungs they want to give will be given closer to that. From a position of government finances not raising the EPG target to £3,000 or extending the EBSS handouts would be a very bad policy as with warmer weather in Q2 actual costs per month would be expected to fall even with the rise in unit cost.

Might not be  a GE, but there are a large number of council elections in England this year.

Sunaks coat is on a shoogly peg, if the results are bad.
And historically in local elections ruling party is punished if voters are unhappy with them.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/local-elections-england-may-2023

Come the end of march we will see if Sunaks private polling is worrying him enough to tell hunt to keep CAP at current rate.

ariarnia

MattMattMattUK said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

It would take a government department a lot longer than an hour to calculate the EPG rates and go through all the levels of checking required.  I doubt they had any advance notice of the rates from Ofgem either.

But government have known this will be the situation for a while - if they were going to change the EPG support they should of announced their intentions a lot earlier (or at least Jeremy Hunt shouldn't of dismissed it in interview).

why would you think that? there a non-ministerial goverment body and the energy minster apoints there ceo. there job is to implement goverment policy. i would expect them to talk to each other before an important anouncement like this. 

I would guess Ofgem only finalised the cap level late on Friday.  It goes back to your point that if government had known in advance then why couldn't they get the rates out today?  

that wasnt my point. my point was almost the oposite. i'm saying if they wanted to they could make the anouncement on the same day.

its not like they have to do it from scratch today. how ofgem work out the cap is well understood and anyone has been able to work out a close estemate for weeks so even if the exact figure wasnt decided until friday then everything could be agreed on paper so the actual pence of the discounts just needs to be typed into a pre written and approved press release

i mean if its the increase to the 3000 cap and there definitely sticking with it then its not like theres really anything to decide or sign of is there?

the decision has already been made when that anouncement was made back in november it was just the cost/budget thats still a ? and thats not going to change because theres no way to predict how much energy people will use over the next 3 months. 

so my point was the delay could mean

they might be thinking about changing things thanks to back bench/political pressure
or waiting to see how people react to the ofgem and media today
or they might not want it to take up news time for the brexit anouncement 
or they want to announce it the same time as something else (whatever there spending the money on) and thats not ready yet
or something else like the bloke that was going to do the calculations was on half term holiday ... 

The delay could mean lots of things, but it is not actually a delay, it is them sticking to the original schedule, so it likely means nothing. 

They may choose to throw around more electoral bribe, but at the moment that is unlikely to be politically expedient as we are unlikely to see an election until Q3-Q4 2024 so whatever bungs they want to give will be given closer to that. From a position of government finances not raising the EPG target to £3,000 or extending the EBSS handouts would be a very bad policy as with warmer weather in Q2 actual costs per month would be expected to fall even with the rise in unit cost.

while we no that theres a lot of people (voters) who think there dd is there bill. and suppliers calculate 12 month use based on the current cap not what it might be next quarter so theres a good chance a lot of people will see what they pay going up each month (and even if not then they'll see there bill increase by 67 as there not getting the winter cash anymore). 

MattMattMattUK

ariarnia said:

MattMattMattUK said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

superkoopauk said:

ariarnia said:

the other side of that is that if they have decided and 'will not be moved' on it then theres no reason they couldnt have published the new unit rates today within an hour or so of the anouncement. i expected them to (to hide it under the brexit anouncement) so they could still be mulling it over. 

It would take a government department a lot longer than an hour to calculate the EPG rates and go through all the levels of checking required.  I doubt they had any advance notice of the rates from Ofgem either.

But government have known this will be the situation for a while - if they were going to change the EPG support they should of announced their intentions a lot earlier (or at least Jeremy Hunt shouldn't of dismissed it in interview).

why would you think that? there a non-ministerial goverment body and the energy minster apoints there ceo. there job is to implement goverment policy. i would expect them to talk to each other before an important anouncement like this. 

I would guess Ofgem only finalised the cap level late on Friday.  It goes back to your point that if government had known in advance then why couldn't they get the rates out today?  

that wasnt my point. my point was almost the oposite. i'm saying if they wanted to they could make the anouncement on the same day.

its not like they have to do it from scratch today. how ofgem work out the cap is well understood and anyone has been able to work out a close estemate for weeks so even if the exact figure wasnt decided until friday then everything could be agreed on paper so the actual pence of the discounts just needs to be typed into a pre written and approved press release

i mean if its the increase to the 3000 cap and there definitely sticking with it then its not like theres really anything to decide or sign of is there?

the decision has already been made when that anouncement was made back in november it was just the cost/budget thats still a ? and thats not going to change because theres no way to predict how much energy people will use over the next 3 months. 

so my point was the delay could mean

they might be thinking about changing things thanks to back bench/political pressure
or waiting to see how people react to the ofgem and media today
or they might not want it to take up news time for the brexit anouncement 
or they want to announce it the same time as something else (whatever there spending the money on) and thats not ready yet
or something else like the bloke that was going to do the calculations was on half term holiday ... 

The delay could mean lots of things, but it is not actually a delay, it is them sticking to the original schedule, so it likely means nothing. 

They may choose to throw around more electoral bribe, but at the moment that is unlikely to be politically expedient as we are unlikely to see an election until Q3-Q4 2024 so whatever bungs they want to give will be given closer to that. From a position of government finances not raising the EPG target to £3,000 or extending the EBSS handouts would be a very bad policy as with warmer weather in Q2 actual costs per month would be expected to fall even with the rise in unit cost.

while we no that theres a lot of people (voters) who think there dd is there bill. and suppliers calculate 12 month use based on the current cap not what it might be next quarter so theres a good chance a lot of people will see what they pay going up each month

Accounting for the way it happens on a rolling twelve month basis and with the estimates for Q3 and Q4 I would be surprised if suppliers increased Direct Debit amounts based on the increase at that point rather than the usual adjustments accounting for usage. 

ariarnia said:
(and even if not then they'll see there bill increase by 67 as there not getting the winter cash anymore). 

They would be no longer getting a bung, but in reality it made no difference to higher earners and lower earners are getting the additional handouts over the next twelve months anyway so it makes little difference. 

ariarnia

MattMattMattUK said:

They would be no longer getting a bung, but in reality it made no difference to higher earners and lower earners are getting the additional handouts over the next twelve months anyway so it makes little difference. 

you do no that most people arent 'high' or v. low earners? 

lots of people just above the cut off or who arent on eligible benifits who havent been feeling great about the situation. 

SnakePlissken

ariarnia said:

MattMattMattUK said:

They would be no longer getting a bung, but in reality it made no difference to higher earners and lower earners are getting the additional handouts over the next twelve months anyway so it makes little difference. 

you do no that most people arent 'high' or v. low earners? 

lots of people just above the cut off or who arent on eligible benifits who havent been feeling great about the situation. 

And whilst they cut their spending on other things to account for higher mortgages, shopping, broadband and energy if it goes up 20%.

The uk economy will take a further hit, forcing more businesses to close or make staff redundant, with a resulting downward spiral on GDP. ( and taxes raised)

And the not poor or rich are the part of the population that would spend money on restruants, take aways, retail shopping.

In extreme case if retail and hospitality collapses then it will have a massive and possibly irreversibe effect.

Especially with hospitality with uk being a less desirable place for tourism.

Everything is interconnected and like a  jenga tower, can collapse.

michaels

Does anyone know how much the govt is saving on the unhedged bulb bail out due to lower than anticipated gas prices over the last few months - probably another couple of billion saved?

Mstty

michaels said:

Does anyone know how much the govt is saving on the unhedged bulb bail out due to lower than anticipated gas prices over the last few months - probably another couple of billion saved?

LMGTFY if true of course