How do ordinary people make the switch to electric vehicles ?

troffasky

Tesla’s “sales” (I think we’ve established we are using registrations)

If registrations are used as a proxy for sales, then Telsa's figures are more likely to be 1:1 sales:registrations, as they don't have franchised dealers sat in the middle "pre-registering" cars and muddying the waters.

Drawing conclusions from a single month's data is obviously unwise.

Grumpy_chap

Pretty much the question of the thread has been asked by the BBC today:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58925049

Oddly, the firming up of used (and now new) ICE cars has closed the gaps significantly.

Take a nice, but not extraordinary, ICE - Skoda Octavia VRS DSG- the epitome of affordable desirability.
List around £33k
Broker around £30k
Monthly 4 year PCP, nil deposit, 10k miles/year, £513 per month

Compare that to the epitome of desirable EV, Tesla Model 3
List £42k
No easy discounts
Monthly 4 year PCP, £6k deposit, 10k miles/year, £531 per month

This is a gap that is closing.  Obviously many people aren't buying either the VRS or the TM3 brand new, but the TM3 would likely be considered a "class" above and the big difference in cost to acquire for 4 years is £6k, far narrower than might be imagined.

To be honest, even for an outright purchase, the £42k vs £30k probably results in total cost favourable to the EV.

jimbo6977

Ergates said:

jimbo6977 said:

. "I have been predicting [the collapse of sea ice in summer months] for many years.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice

How many times does someone e have to be (self admittedly) wrong before they cease to be an "expert"?

When someone is dying from terminal cancer and the doctors give them a week to live and they go on to survive another month, do you conclude that doctors don't know what they're talking about and that cancer isn't harmful?

Because you know someone who smoked heavily yet lived to be 90, do you conclude that smoking isn't bad for you?

Every piece of data we have shows the world is heating up and that the ice caps *are* melting.  Exact predictions of when they'll finally go aren't really the point.  We're already starting to see the consequences of climate change.

If the next person to walk past me in the street can be as consistently wrong as an "expert", how do you justify calling only one of them an "expert"? 

If we can't judge people on their objective track record, then the halo of "expertise" becomes a matter of not of objectively observable skill and accuracy but rather of social status and *political* correctness.

Sea_Shell

Grumpy_chap said:

Pretty much the question of the thread has been asked by the BBC today:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58925049

Oddly, the firming up of used (and now new) ICE cars has closed the gaps significantly.

Take a nice, but not extraordinary, ICE - Skoda Octavia VRS DSG- the epitome of affordable desirability.
List around £33k
Broker around £30k
Monthly 4 year PCP, nil deposit, 10k miles/year, £513 per month

Compare that to the epitome of desirable EV, Tesla Model 3
List £42k
No easy discounts
Monthly 4 year PCP, £6k deposit, 10k miles/year, £531 per month

This is a gap that is closing.  Obviously many people aren't buying either the VRS or the TM3 brand new, but the TM3 would likely be considered a "class" above and the big difference in cost to acquire for 4 years is £6k, far narrower than might be imagined.

To be honest, even for an outright purchase, the £42k vs £30k probably results in total cost favourable to the EV.

I'd suggest there aren't many "ordinary" people who can afford £500+ a month for a car, fullstop.

What are the EV cars you can get for a purchase price of, say, £5000.  Comparative to an ICE Focus/Astra at that price point?

[Deleted User]

Most people I know wouldn't be buying anything in those price ranges.

Never bought on the never never so that is out the question. Always cash on purchase in the past. Probably bought the last new one I am likely to have (ex demo) a few years ago. Big problem for me buying second hand is battery life/warranty/reliability several owners on, need some reassurance that reliability vs battery is not going to bite hard unless there are any life time warrantee regardless of ownership?
Need to understand more about the power plant myself, I will never be buying new unless Boris is feeling generous.

I would jump at the opportunity but too many worries at the 5 grand price range at the moment.

Grumpy_chap

Sea_Shell said:

I'd suggest there aren't many "ordinary" people who can afford £500+ a month for a car, fullstop.

I agree totally, and I certainly couldn't. 
Even the more modest entry-level Octavia is still list price £22k, broker price £19k, PCP £320 monthly.

That said, the Octavia (even the VRS version) is not a car that would commonly be deemed as anything other than aimed at the masses.  The profile of cars on the road shows that, clearly, many people can finance this type of vehicle or better. 

In fact, I was only looking at Octavia cars at all because my Nephew is looking for one and I could not believe how expensive they are.  Even the more modest entry-level Octavia is still list price £22k, broker price £19k, PCP £320 monthly.

The point of the post was to show the comparison between an ICE and an EV in cost terms.  With the TM3 vs Octavia VRS, the TM3 will likely be lower total cost for the typical new car buyer.  When you then add in that the Tesla is a "premium" brand versus the Skoda "affordable" brand plus the extra equipment on the Tesla, the EV starts to look good value.

Given that as a binary choice (Octavia VRS vs TM3) , I'd go for the EV.

Sea_Shell said:

What are the EV cars you can get for a purchase price of, say, £5000.  Comparative to an ICE Focus/Astra at that price point?

I agree that is not easy at the moment, but it is starting to become possible and will only improve.

This Focus, 2013, 60k miles, £5.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202111019127804

This Leaf, 2013, 40k miles, £6.5k
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-details/202111049223132

£1k or 20% extra for the Leaf, but total cost of ownership will likely be comparable.  It is not inconceivable that the EV makes a rationale choice and as the new technology starts to age, with more supply of used EV, this will become the obvious choice.  For the supply of used EV to grow, the choice of new EV has to happen by those buying new cars.

I accept, though, given that as a binary choice (£5.5k Focus vs £6.5k Leaf), I'd go for the ICE.  It is clear that the way the market is developing, this is an equation that will likely soon flip.

Sea_Shell

Availability of said cars is also a factor.   
How many Focus v Leafs available, in that price bracket, locally to the purchaser?

Especially if you need a car now, and aren't able to spend time hunting around.

Eg car just died or written off and you need to get to work.

It's going to be many, many years until we get to parity of availability, as well as price.

DrEskimo

half_empty said:

Most people I know wouldn't be buying anything in those price ranges.

Never bought on the never never so that is out the question. Always cash on purchase in the past. Probably bought the last new one I am likely to have (ex demo) a few years ago. Big problem for me buying second hand is battery life/warranty/reliability several owners on, need some reassurance that reliability vs battery is not going to bite hard unless there are any life time warrantee regardless of ownership?
Need to understand more about the power plant myself, I will never be buying new unless Boris is feeling generous.

I would jump at the opportunity but too many worries at the 5 grand price range at the moment.

I honestly wouldn't be too concerned with second hand EVs. The entire used = warn-out useless battery is overplayed, perpetuated largely by the very early Leaf's.

Case in point, I bought my Zoe used, but it was only 2-yrs old with 5,000miles on the clock. The battery and range were like new, and given my modest mileage over the last 3-yrs I've owned it (sitting at 15,000miles), it's still in great health and I have noticed no difference in range (~150 averaged over the year).

Now when I bought it, it wasn't in the £5k range, but at £14k it was hardly masses of money. Today I would hope to sell it for about £12k at least so it's certainly what I would deem an 'affordable' EV, with decent range, for it's mileage, spec and age. Comparable Clio's are not much cheaper at around £9-10k.

It won't be long till a lot of these and the newer 50kWh battery EVs start reaching the used market, and I would have no worried about longevity personally.

Besides, my Zoe has a warranty on the battery for 8-yrs, and I am extending the car warranty every year (~£300/year), which I can do till it's 10-yrs old. So really, all the benefits of a new car, at much less cost.

Petriix

Sea_Shell said:

Grumpy_chap said:

Pretty much the question of the thread has been asked by the BBC today:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58925049

Oddly, the firming up of used (and now new) ICE cars has closed the gaps significantly.

Take a nice, but not extraordinary, ICE - Skoda Octavia VRS DSG- the epitome of affordable desirability.
List around £33k
Broker around £30k
Monthly 4 year PCP, nil deposit, 10k miles/year, £513 per month

Compare that to the epitome of desirable EV, Tesla Model 3
List £42k
No easy discounts
Monthly 4 year PCP, £6k deposit, 10k miles/year, £531 per month

This is a gap that is closing.  Obviously many people aren't buying either the VRS or the TM3 brand new, but the TM3 would likely be considered a "class" above and the big difference in cost to acquire for 4 years is £6k, far narrower than might be imagined.

To be honest, even for an outright purchase, the £42k vs £30k probably results in total cost favourable to the EV.

I'd suggest there aren't many "ordinary" people who can afford £500+ a month for a car, fullstop.

What are the EV cars you can get for a purchase price of, say, £5000.  Comparative to an ICE Focus/Astra at that price point?

My switch to a (brand new) EV has so far cost me ~ £0 for 9,000 miles. Ok, we had £3k saved, but the car is still worth more than the £20k we borrowed to buy it.

The additional mortgage payments are ~ £75 per month, which roughly matches the fuel savings (1.3p per mile in electricity vs 11p per mile in diesel).

Maintenence costs on my old diesel averaged £400 per year. On the EV the service schedule averages £120 with no wearing parts (like clutch, exhaust, cam belt, fuel and oil filters etc) to bump that up. Brakes will last far longer as they are barely used. There is no MOT for 3 years and VED is £0.

Total savings are around £1200 per year. 

Once you get out of the mindset that purchase prices must be equivalent, you'll realise that the overall cost of ownership for a £23k EV is comparable to that of an ICEV costing half as much.

I was personally weighing up the comparative costs of buying an MG5 vs a 3 year old diesel Golf estate for £13k. Over 8 years of ownership the total cost of purchasing and running the two cars worked out basically the same.

But the MG5 will almost certainly retain a greater resale value than the Golf for that entire period. And, even if the car as a whole lost its full value, the battery alone would still be worth £thousands.

So, don't just look at the purchase price. Look at the total cost of ownership over any given period.

Sea_Shell

But for many people, purchase price still rules.  They need a car and can only afford £x, now!  Either cash, or old style finance.

Knowing it'll cost less, long term, is of no consolation for those on a tight budget.