Octopus Tracker

Doc_N

Telegraph_Sam said:

Predictions (24 - 48 hours ahead) as well as history??

Electricity predictions are based largely on weather forecasts, particularly windspeed. Gas is more difficult to predict, but you might find this of interest:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

UK natural gas prices were near the 104 pence per therm, bouncing from the one-month low of 100 touched on December 16th, tracking the rebound for natural gas in other European delivery points amid uncertain supply. Markets took long gas positions as central European economies negotiated an extension with the European Commission of the current deal that secures Russian gas flows through Ukraine. The current deal is due to end at the turn of the year, driving EU members to pile onto alternative sources and raising the outlook of LNG dependency for the continent. In turn, British gas prices remained well below their one-year highs touched earlier in the month, as strong alternative power sources eased demand for gas. This was after strong winds during mid-December lifted UK wind power generation to record highs for the last days, allowing the UK to briefly export power to France.

Telegraph_Sam

Thanks that's the heavy stuff. I think I'm spoiled by what the system provides for electricity.

debitcardmayhem

Sort of forecast 

UK Gas increased 33.66 GBp/Thm or 41.70% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. UK Natural Gas is expected to trade at 119.01 GBp/Thm by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 123.60 in 12 months time.

from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

QrizB

Do keep in mind that the Trading Economics chart is fo the price of a therm of gas, in pence, for delivery next month. It's not directly applicable to the day-ahead spot price used when setting Tracker, although it might show the general trend.

debitcardmayhem

QrizB said:

Do keep in mind that the Trading Economics chart is fo the price of a therm of gas, in pence, for delivery next month. It's not directly applicable to the day-ahead spot price used when setting Tracker, although it might show the general trend.

Yes Octopus use Marex Spectron but can’t find a link.

masonic

debitcardmayhem said:

QrizB said:

Do keep in mind that the Trading Economics chart is fo the price of a therm of gas, in pence, for delivery next month. It's not directly applicable to the day-ahead spot price used when setting Tracker, although it might show the general trend.

Yes Octopus use Marex Spectron but can’t find a link.

I think several have gone looking, but I don't think that data is available to us.

bristolleedsfan

Taken from elsewhere    No cheaper electric tomorrow on tracker. (Before the clever folks chip in, I know it's still slightly cheaper than fixed still)

Griffindog

No Christmas present from Octopus this year then. I thought it might have been cheaper as there will be much less business use.

masonic

Griffindog said:

No Christmas present from Octopus this year then. I thought it might have been cheaper as there will be much less business use.

Consumption is low, but wind speeds are lower. The previous weekend provided a better balance. Boxing day will be worse.

pete-20-11

And Dec 27 even worse?