Octopus Tracker

Telegraph_Sam

In other words it is not possible to compare "Oct 24" with (say) "Jan 25" before making a decision?  There isn't a window during which this is possible.

My inclination is to stay with Dec 23 till the bitter end.

masonic

Telegraph_Sam said:

In other words it is not possible to compare "Oct 24" with (say) "Jan 25" before making a decision?  There isn't a window during which this is possible.

My inclination is to stay with Dec 23 till the bitter end.

The new tariff should come out early in the new year. You could ask Octopus to switch to Oct 24 just after Christmas, and if they agree you'd have two weeks to cancel and return to Dec 23, during which time Jan 25 pricing would be available. However, that would come at the cost of an extra 5-6p per day on standing charges and about 15% extra on your unit price while you are off Dec 23. I would not even consider doing this.

matt_drummer

Telegraph_Sam said:

In other words it is not possible to compare "Oct 24" with (say) "Jan 25" before making a decision?  There isn't a window during which this is possible.

My inclination is to stay with Dec 23 till the bitter end.

Isn't the only difference the formula used?

If you know the formulas of both versions of the tariff surely it is a simple task to work out what one will be cheaper?

They are both based on the wholesale cost and then an adjustment made to arrive at the price you pay?

One of them will always result in a higher price than the other due to the formula used as the only variable is the wholesale price?

Presumably the October 24 tariff results in a higher price all of time than the December 23 tariff due to the formula used?

Telegraph_Sam

Hard work ahead after Christmas. Tks for the guidelines

matt_drummer

Telegraph_Sam said:

Hard work ahead after Christmas. Tks for the guidelines

I have done it for you for the North of England

The December 2023 price is

(Wholesale cost x 1.1857) + 9.0527p per kWh

The October 2024 price is

(Wholesale cost x 1.232) + 10.8035p per kWh


Based on wholesale costs of 10p December 2023 is 20.9097p per kWh and October 2024 is 23.1235p per kWh


October 2024 is 14.4178% higher at a wholesale cost of 10p per kWh

The October 2024 tariff price will always be higher than the December 2023 tariff price because the multiplier is a bigger number and the fixed addition per kWh is also a bigger number.

If the January 2025 formula uses a higher multiplier and a higher fixed addition per kWh then January 2025 will always be more expensive than October 2024.

I don't think anybody knows what the formula will be from January 2025?

But when you do, it will be a simple task to compare the results if both the multiplier and fixed element increase.

masonic

matt_drummer said:
One of them will always result in a higher price than the other due to the formula used as the only variable is the wholesale price?

Presumably the October 24 tariff results in a higher price all of time than the December 23 tariff due to the formula used?

Octopus has also been aligning SC across its tariffs based on a discounted version of the price capped charge.

In broad brush strokes, the trend has been as follows:

Nov 22 -> Dec 23: 15% hike in unit rate through formula change, small increase to SC

Dec 23 -> Apr 24: Another few % added to unit rate, ~10% increase to SC

Apr 24 -> Jul 24: Another ~10% added to unit rate, No change in SC

Jul 24 -> Oct 24: Unit rate about the same (marginally decreased in some regions, increased in others), negligible change to SC

My prediction for Jan 25 is it will be another insignificant change vs Oct 24.

matt_drummer

masonic said:

matt_drummer said:
One of them will always result in a higher price than the other due to the formula used as the only variable is the wholesale price?

Presumably the October 24 tariff results in a higher price all of time than the December 23 tariff due to the formula used?

Octopus has also been aligning SC across its tariffs based on a discounted version of the price capped charge.

In broad brush strokes, the trend has been as follows:

Nov 22 -> Dec 23: 15% hike in unit rate through formula change, small increase to SC

Dec 23 -> Apr 24: Another few % added to unit rate, ~10% increase to SC

Apr 24 -> Jul 24: Another ~10% added to unit rate, No change in SC

Jul 24 -> Oct 24: Unit rate about the same (marginally decreased in some regions, increased in others), negligible change to SC

My prediction for Jan 25 is it will be another insignificant change vs Oct 24.

So, fortunately not an awful lot of hard work involved, phew!

I hadn't looked at standing charges but I had assumed little change between October 2024 and January 2025 versions.

I assume that once the January 2025 formula is announced and comes into force the October 2024 version is no longer available? There isn't really a choice unless you choose the October 2024 tariff beforehand?

masonic

Yes, they'll tell us about the new tariff on the day they pull the previous one for new sign-ups. The standing charge can now be assumed to track that of the price cap, so no appreciable change expected, and the formula changes were based on them passing through additional costs that they had been absorbing through to the end of last year. There should be nothing big left to come through now.

To me, anything after Dec 23 is a dead duck and there is zero chance of Jan 25 being as cheap as Dec 23. Many others considered even Dec 23 too pricey to continue.

matt_drummer

The end result then.

You can't compare October 2024 to January 2025 at the moment, and by the time you can, it's too late to choose October 2024 if it turns out to be better than January 2025.

The choice for anybody on December 2023 is either wait and see or go to October 2024 if they want to stick with the tracker tariff.

That's all there is to deliberate as far as the tracker tariff goes.

Other choices are SVT, a fix with Octopus, Agile or another supplier?

matt_drummer

masonic said:

Yes, they'll tell us about the new tariff on the day they pull the previous one for new sign-ups. The standing charge can now be assumed to track that of the price cap, so no appreciable change expected, and the formula changes were based on them passing through additional costs that they had been absorbing through to the end of last year. There should be nothing big left to come through now.

To me, anything after Dec 23 is a dead duck and there is zero chance of Jan 25 being as cheap as Dec 23. Many others considered even Dec 23 too pricey to continue.

I would agree.

Changing from December 23 to October 24 now would be throwing money away.