Octopus Tracker

Telegraph_Sam

I have now finally installed O. Compare on a new device. Over 4 months Tracker came to £201 vs Agile @ £182.  Annual saving of £57 if I was to switch to Agile (and not load switch).  Worth considering but not overwhelming.  I would like to compare these figures with comparable results and opinions from other readers

masonic

Telegraph_Sam said:

I have now finally installed O. Compare on a new device. Over 4 months Tracker came to £201 vs Agile @ £182.  Annual saving of £57 if I was to switch to Agile (and not load switch).  Worth considering but not overwhelming.  I would like to compare these figures with comparable results and opinions from other readers

Congratulations on taking that leap! For me, Tracker remains about 5% cheaper than Agile, so I face no such dilemma. But if there was a potential saving to be had on Agile, I'd be considering where energy prices would need to go in order to wipe out the savings and how likely that was to actually happen. But likely any accumulated savings would insure against that, just as they did for long term Tracker users when they have faced higher prices in the past.

la531983

Gas up 9% wholesale today....

Telegraph_Sam

masonic said:

But if there was a potential saving to be had on Agile, I'd be considering where energy prices would need to go in order to wipe out the savings and how likely that was to actually happen. But likely any accumulated savings would insure against that, just as they did for long term Tracker users when they have faced higher prices in the past.

@masonic: Which pŕe-supposes that higher prices would indeed favour Tracker. Likely but not a certainty as I have understood it.

Telegraph_Sam

@ Masonic: Anyone seriously considering a switch from Tracker to Agile needs to have a strategic plan, what to do and where to go if Agile then turns out to be costly. Like SVR which would represent quite a climb-down.

masonic

Telegraph_Sam said:

masonic said:

But if there was a potential saving to be had on Agile, I'd be considering where energy prices would need to go in order to wipe out the savings and how likely that was to actually happen. But likely any accumulated savings would insure against that, just as they did for long term Tracker users when they have faced higher prices in the past.

@masonic: Which pŕe-supposes that higher prices would indeed favour Tracker. Likely but not a certainty as I have understood it.

There is a relationship between wholesale, Tracker, and Agile price defined through the price formulae. It has been mentioned several times that Agile has a higher multiplier, so you can determine through plotting (or solving simultaneous linear equations for) Agile and Tracker formula vs wholesale using your own % peak average, at what level of wholesale price Tracker becomes cheaper again. If this is above SVT and/or available fixes, then you have an alternative escape route, but if below, then it is worth considering the risk of rising wholesale prices.

A fix would generally be preferable to SVT, as what do you think will happen to SVT if wholesale prices rise. The trouble is it will be difficult to differentiate between a temporary blip and something more long lasting.

Telegraph_Sam

Re escape routes I had in mind that reverting to Tracker is a no-no for the infamous 9 months.

Re your last para we are of course still operatating without crystall balls. Next best but not conclusive would be to relate the prices at any one time to a long term trend line. I suppose that somewhere this has been calculated. Or the long term average prices from My Smart Energy or similar web sites

masonic

Telegraph_Sam said:

Re escape routes I had in mind that reverting to Tracker is a no-no for the infamous 9 months.

Re your last para we are of course still operatating without crystall balls. Next best but not conclusive would be to relate the prices at any one time to a long term trend line. I suppose that somewhere this has been calculated. Or the long term average prices from My Smart Energy or similar web sites

The long term trend isn't particularly helpful. This is the trend from data I've been able to pull together on the historic equivalent Dec 23 prices (6 am and 5 pm represent a cheap and expensive Agile half hour slot), but it is obscured by things like the EPG and price cap in some parts:

It still doesn't help to predict what might happen in the future.

Nordpool has been busy backfilling wholesale price data. It now goes back to 2022. If/when they include 2021, I'll be able to go back and update based on actual figures rather than those derived from Octopus tariffs available at that time. Maybe they'll activate their Export Excel button at some point.

Telegraph_Sam

@masonic: There is an important distinction to be made: 'Prediction" on the one hand vs having some kind of long term trend as a "backdrop" against which to take a decision based on the sophisticated analyses that you excel in. To judge if at any time the spot prices are historically high or low.

northernstar007

feeling its going to be ultra cheap electric on sat