BITCOIN

zagfles

User232002 said:

User232002 said:

As usual with these threads across the internet, as soon as [actual quantitative data is presented], the users [conveniently find a reason to disengage from the discussion]. 

As I mentioned earlier, its depressing that the wallet distribution / Gini correlation data that I addressed earlier has been ignored, just as it was when it was first posted in this thread. As has the mathematical discussion as to why Bitcoin can't be a ponzi because the accepted mathematical models for ponzis do not fit its history.

Instead we get some asinine replies; Can't disprove a statistic? Just say that politicians make stats up all the time, so this one must be made up too. An especially ironic statement given the talk of A|B & B|A on this very page. Like, what kind of argument is this? From someone who has 20k posts on an internet forum. Less quantity, more quality please.

Now you're making up strawmen to argue against. Did anyone say politicians "make stats up"? Maybe you can quote it? No, because it's not there. So you quote your own post rather than the one you're really replying to hoping nobody notices. 

What I said was "using carefully selected statistics in the same way politicians do". Politicians rarely make up stats. Instead they quote usually correct stats but carefully selected ones which make the point they want to make.

On this particular stats argument, I don't give a rats backside what percentage of bitcoin owners are in profit. It's a pointless irrelavent stat from the point of view of whether it's a good investment now. The vast majority of VLS100 investors are probably in profit. As they were this time last year. 

So I don't care who's right in this tedious arguments about stats, the stats don't tell you anything useful.

Honestly, I'm a bit bored. I think I will, very conservatively, 5x my portfolio over the next 18 months. Continuing to post here will cost me money as it just takes too much time, as it did in 2021. Goodbye.

Bye then. At least we've got yet another prediction we can probably laugh at in 18 months time. Although not very original, we already had the 5x prediction in March 2021. Funny that poster never came back to gloat like he said he would.

thegentleway

User232002 said:

Here were the original assumptions and conclusion;

MeteredOut said:

So, if 90% of bitcoins are in profit, and 1% of addresses hold 90% of bitcoins, it doesn't take too much stretching of the imagine to think that approaching 99% of people who own bitcoins are not in profit. 

So let me make this rather obvious;

Suppose we have 100 Bitcoins and 100 people with 1 wallet each. The probability of any individual Bitcoin, or fraction of a Bitcoin, being in profit is 0.9

1 Wallet holds 90 Bitcoins
99 wallets hold 0.1 Bitcoin each

The question is; What is the expected number of wallets that are in profit?

Where’s the missing 0.001 bitcoin - lol

1 wallet holds 90 bitcoins in profit
99 wallets hold 0.101 bitcoin at a loss

This permutation yields only 1% of addresses are in profit.

In the absence on any other information, it’s just as valid as any other permutation.

thegentleway

mooneysaver said:

thegentleway said:

User232002 said:

MeteredOut said:

the ad-hominem attacks 

You made a really rather obvious error between A|B and B|A. This is Statistics 101. Thats not hyperbole; Bayes Theorem is literally taught in Stats 101 and this will be one of the first things that will be discussed. Its the type of error that nobody who has actually studied Statistics at a reasonable level would make, and so it immediately identifies you as being someone that lacks technical knowledge here.

As it said, it’s not a case of 'it’s not quite right, but it’s near enough.' It’s flat out wrong. And it’s very relevant to casual observers of this thread that the people dismissing Bitcoin are not actually technically capable. 

 I thought that from Bayes’ theorem you needed p(A), p(B) *and* p(B|A) to calculate p(A|B).

This is a very common error, it's more commonly referred to as the 'No true Scotsman' fallacy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman).

Oh dear, it’s contagious - lol. Your friend brought up Bayes and I highlighted why it’s not relevant here. 

Scottex99

Merry Xmas, even to the No-coiners 😃

I hope 2024 is prosperous for us all 

Cus

User232002 said:

User232002 said:

As usual with these threads across the internet, as soon as [actual quantitative data is presented], the users [conveniently find a reason to disengage from the discussion]. 

As I mentioned earlier, its depressing that the wallet distribution / Gini correlation data that I addressed earlier has been ignored, just as it was when it was first posted in this thread. As has the mathematical discussion as to why Bitcoin can't be a ponzi because the accepted mathematical models for ponzis do not fit its history.

Instead we get some asinine replies; Can't disprove a statistic? Just say that politicians make stats up all the time, so this one must be made up too. An especially ironic statement given the talk of A|B & B|A on this very page. Like, what kind of argument is this? From someone who has 20k posts on an internet forum. Less quantity, more quality please. Or how about we just throw the claim out there again that people in this thread are desperately trying to get people to buy a few hundred quid of Bitcoin? It trades tens of billions every day, but yes that few hundred quid is vital to support the price.

This is always the way in this thread. And now the actual data posted and the actual arguments presented will be buried and forgotten about, only for another poster to repeat the same nonsense in 10 pages time. 

Honestly, I'm a bit bored. I think I will, very conservatively, 5x my portfolio over the next 18 months. Continuing to post here will cost me money as it just takes too much time, as it did in 2021. Goodbye.


1. 9b7b7b170fa725e2b0c36c750f9cb055a8d81e0b4f3bae84f53c60c60209263a

2. 6034a8267b1308f8fe9bd862d614a839ecdd38285307a1eeeb0c3b21826dd7e9

3. d9ff2bae721942f76bd6171bc0041e3d039d2cb28fd2f1402148fee7ce5fbf9f

4. c4bd35b30452073c988ebc6acf6f4f9d62fa3fe78a33dfa2daf63d6b5016bd10

Shame, I enjoy your perspective. Considering that this thread went quiet for the many months that bitcoin slowly dropped in price through 2022 to 2023, I guess you were furiously working hard to not lose too much money and too busy to post here..

DannyCarey

I see this thread is still full of snide remarks, glad I don't read this very often anymore. Full of bored trolls!

silvercue

Scottex99 said:

Merry Xmas, even to the No-coiners 😃

I hope 2024 is prosperous for us all 

2024 is gearing up to be very good for holders.  2023 has been excellent, but we are just getting started!!

Moose1960

DannyCarey said:

I see this thread is still full of snide remarks, glad I don't read this very often anymore. Full of bored trolls!

Indeed, and that's a shame but the nature of internet forums generally, coupled with the quite polarising nature of crypto, there's little middle ground here so, with a few exceptions, we have 300+ pages of "You're wrong!" and "No, you're wrong!"

One of those exceptions is @Scottex99, who is clearly a believer but accepts the counter points in a good natured fashion. Thank you Scott.

For my own part I invested (or "staked" or "gambled", depending upon your view) an amount that I could afford to lose in the 2018 dip and cashed out my original stake in the 2021 highs, leaving a profit that I watch today with interest and without intention to withdraw it any time soon. If it sinks to zero I've lost nothing and had some fun.

It's important to distinguish between Bitcoin (the subject of this thread) and crypto generally. Yes, the crypto space is full of useless "coins", scammers, and their naive prey but none of the latter takes away the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

Is it a ponzi? If it is then it's doing pretty well to still be around after fifteen years. That longevity doesn't compare with the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble or any other large scale recent or historic scam. 

Where is it going? I'll confess that I really don't know, but there's the thing - nobody knows, including the naysayers on here. Still, they'll continue to insist that they're right.

zagfles

Moose1960 said:

DannyCarey said:

I see this thread is still full of snide remarks, glad I don't read this very often anymore. Full of bored trolls!

Indeed, and that's a shame but the nature of internet forums generally, coupled with the quite polarising nature of crypto, there's little middle ground here so, with a few exceptions, we have 300+ pages of "You're wrong!" and "No, you're wrong!"

One of those exceptions is @Scottex99, who is clearly a believer but accepts the counter points in a good natured fashion. Thank you Scott.

For my own part I invested (or "staked" or "gambled", depending upon your view) an amount that I could afford to lose in the 2018 dip and cashed out my original stake in the 2021 highs, leaving a profit that I watch today with interest and without intention to withdraw it any time soon. If it sinks to zero I've lost nothing and had some fun.

It's important to distinguish between Bitcoin (the subject of this thread) and crypto generally. Yes, the crypto space is full of useless "coins", scammers, and their naive prey but none of the latter takes away the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

Is it a ponzi? If it is then it's doing pretty well to still be around after fifteen years. That longevity doesn't compare with the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble or any other large scale recent or historic scam. 

Where is it going? I'll confess that I really don't know, but there's the thing - nobody knows, including the naysayers on here. Still, they'll continue to insist that they're right.

I think the problem with Bitcoin discussions is summarised by this post on p.293

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/80244091/#Comment_80244091

I don't think it's a scam, or a ponzi, and I haven't got a clue what direction it will go in, nobody has, even those who confidently predict it'll 5x in the next 18 months or it'll be worthless. 

But I do think it'll carry on being volatile, because there's too much speculation going on, there's too many people who see it as a "get rich quick scheme" rather than a future currency. It's not a ponzi or pyramid but it does share some features such as the obvious desperation of existing investors to get others to invest. I remember someone desperate to get me to invest in a pyramid scheme in the 1980's, this thread reminds me of them. I would never try to persuade anyone any investment of mine will skyrocket in value, why would I, if I thought it would happen I'd just hold and wait for it. My reward would be in my bank balance, not winning an argument on the internet.

When the speculators move out, I may move in

Frequentlyhere

Is it a ponzi? If it is then it's doing pretty well to still be around after fifteen years. That longevity doesn't compare with the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble or any other large scale recent or historic scam. 

Except for the largest of all. Madoff's ran for 17+ years. I don't particularly think Bitcoin falls into that category exactly though myself. 

It's important to distinguish between Bitcoin (the subject of this thread) and crypto generally. 

You can distinguish in some ways, but in other ways there's plenty of similarities in my opinion. Risks of holding it on exchanges, risks of self-custody, risks of fraud/theft, high volatility, manipulation of the price, and of it simply being a unproductive asset (or an ineffective currency if the wind is blowing that way today). 

Not to say you can't make good money from it though if you fancy a bit of speculation. 

Edit: My post crossed with @zagfles . Very well said. The label in the previous post of someone being "a believer" is an interesting choice of word.