BITCOIN

Scottex99

It’s all to do with FinProm rules and a new version of it. 

UK super strict on protecting consumers now so exchanges are having to “vet” all users and have banners all over their websites.

Protect people from scams all good but now some people might have to jump through hoops to buy £100 of BTC, yet they can walk into any casino (with a membership) and drop £50k in a night in cash?

masonic

Was wondering what people's take on the recent progress in quantum computing was. It seems not so long ago they were heralding being able to factor an odd number larger than 21. Now they have 48 logical qubits to work with. IIRC bitcoin uses 256-bit ECC for its keypairs, requiring >906 qubits to break in a quantum attack. If nothing else I found the language in the abstract of the article quite entertaining as a non-physicist, suspect the key was perfecting the feedforward entanglement teleportation   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06927-3

IvanOpinion

masonic said:

Was wondering what people's take on the recent progress in quantum computing was. It seems not so long ago they were heralding being able to factor an odd number larger than 21. Now they have 48 logical qubits to work with. IIRC bitcoin uses 256-bit ECC for its keypairs, requiring >906 qubits to break in a quantum attack. If nothing else I found the language in the abstract of the article quite entertaining as a non-physicist   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06927-3

Could you not find an english version of that article?

Malthusian

ChatGPT to the rescue:

The paper focuses on a significant advancement in quantum computing, specifically addressing a major challenge: errors. In quantum computing, information is processed using qubits, the basic unit of quantum information. Unlike classical bits that can be either 0 or 1, qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously due to the principles of quantum superposition and entanglement.

Errors pose a substantial challenge in quantum computing due to the delicate nature of quantum states. Quantum systems are highly susceptible to interference from their surroundings, leading to errors in information storage and processing. Unlike classical bits, which are robust and deterministic, qubits are incredibly fragile and prone to decoherence—a phenomenon where quantum information gets lost or corrupted due to interaction with the environment. Additionally, quantum operations are inherently probabilistic, and errors can propagate rapidly, jeopardizing the accuracy of computations.

To mitigate errors in quantum computing, the researchers developed a quantum processor using logical qubits. These logical qubits are encoded across multiple physical qubits, providing redundancy and error-correction capabilities. The aim is to create a stable computational platform despite the inherent fragility of quantum states.

Their quantum processor integrates up to 280 physical qubits to support the operations of logical qubits. This system demonstrates better error detection and correction compared to individual physical qubits. By implementing various logical operations and fault-tolerant algorithms, they've showcased the potential of this processor to outperform classical computers for specific tasks.

The architecture they've devised utilizes a zoned setup with atom arrays. This design enables better control and scalability for these logical qubits. The approach involves segregating the processor into different zones: storage, entangling, and readout. This segmentation allows for more efficient handling and manipulation of quantum information.

Their experiments include testing logical operations, fault-tolerant algorithms, and the implementation of complex circuits. They've demonstrated the scalability of their approach by performing tasks involving multiple logical qubits, showcasing the potential for larger-scale, error-corrected quantum computers.
Overall, this advancement represents a promising step towards realizing practical quantum computers capable of performing complex computations with significantly reduced error rates.

Take this with a grain of salt as ChatGPT can make mistakes when summarising. 

Scottex99

masonic said:

Was wondering what people's take on the recent progress in quantum computing was. It seems not so long ago they were heralding being able to factor an odd number larger than 21. Now they have 48 logical qubits to work with. IIRC bitcoin uses 256-bit ECC for its keypairs, requiring >906 qubits to break in a quantum attack. If nothing else I found the language in the abstract of the article quite entertaining as a non-physicist, suspect the key was perfecting the feedforward entanglement teleportation   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06927-3

I honestly have no idea. It’s been raised over the years and debunked I think. 

But obviously relevant as computer power gets super strong in the future.

Same way it’s been debunked that NFTs boil the ocean or 1 Bitcoin block uses the same electricity as the whole of Canada or whatever, although I have no sources to hand, that narrative has almost completely vanished 

RolandFlagg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtyvFo9oyB8

Excellent discussion with some of the smartest people in the space.

50 minutes in things really got my juices going on what will be an incredible journey the next couple of decades.

Some interesting stats thrown out such as:
Bitcoin Layer 1 now settles as many transactions as VISA and..
Pick any four year time frame in BTCs history and if you had put 2% of your portfolio in it and kept the rest in cash earning nothing you would have outperformed the S&P 500 and also had a much better Sharpe Ratio.

And to think this is just the beginning. The likes of Blackrock and Fidelity are going to be marketing the crap out of how amazing BTC is as an investment and how groundbreaking the tech is.

fwor

Scottex99 said:

I honestly have no idea. It’s been raised over the years and debunked I think. 

It hasn't been debunked, and it can't be, for the following reason: nobody knows exactly how computing in general (and quantum computing specifically) will advance in future.

If it advances a little quicker than expected, everything that depends on cryptography will be affected sooner rather than later. That's not just cryptocurrencies - the security of online banking, and of secure messaging, and of credit card transactions, and a lot more will be affected too.

The solution isn't difficult in principle - in many cases making keys bigger will be enough, but there are also several programmes that have been under way for years now to develop cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to compromise by quantum computing.

So: not debunked, still "of concern" - but something that can be addressed in future (at a development cost).

Scottex99

Yep, you’re right, bad terminology by me.

I meant it’s not a current concern, but could be in the future the reasons you gave 

MeteredOut

Scottex99 said:

It’s all to do with FinProm rules and a new version of it. 

UK super strict on protecting consumers now so exchanges are having to “vet” all users and have banners all over their websites.

Protect people from scams all good but now some people might have to jump through hoops to buy £100 of BTC, yet they can walk into any casino (with a membership) and drop £50k in a night in cash?

Probably better chance of making a profit in the casino.

<runs away>

I suspect its because most people are better placed to appreciate the risks in the casino; they're still plenty of people who will see a picture on TikTok of someone sitting on an expensive car, and they'll sign up with little research. Call it a side-hustle, and they money will follow.

masonic

Scottex99 said:

masonic said:

Was wondering what people's take on the recent progress in quantum computing was. It seems not so long ago they were heralding being able to factor an odd number larger than 21. Now they have 48 logical qubits to work with. IIRC bitcoin uses 256-bit ECC for its keypairs, requiring >906 qubits to break in a quantum attack. If nothing else I found the language in the abstract of the article quite entertaining as a non-physicist, suspect the key was perfecting the feedforward entanglement teleportation   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06927-3

I honestly have no idea. It’s been raised over the years and debunked I think. 

But obviously relevant as computer power gets super strong in the future.

Same way it’s been debunked that NFTs boil the ocean or 1 Bitcoin block uses the same electricity as the whole of Canada or whatever, although I have no sources to hand, that narrative has almost completely vanished 

Well, before this it was suggested that susceptible cryptography would be safe until at least 2030 in the worst case scenario. The authors conclude that "The use of the zoned architecture and logical-level control should allow our techniques to be readily scaled to over 10000 physical qubits by increasing laser power and optimizing control methods, while QEC efficiency can be improved by reducing two-qubit gate errors to 0.1%." I've no idea how easily or quickly the scaling up could be done, or if any efficiencies of scale could be leveraged in the cross-qubit error correction to give a higher ratio of logical to physical, but that would be the end of 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography, and close to the end for the more primitive prime factoring variant with today's key sizes. Meanwhile NIST has been busy standardising quantum-resistant crypto algorithms for release this year. Everything that can be updated will have the option to moving to one of those in the event quantum advances enough to be of threat. Seems more a question of when not if now, but it could still be quite a way off.

I'd be interested in what would happen to the subject of this thread - does Bitcoin get forked with a quantum-resistant version? Or is there some other mechanism to change the underlying crypto?