BITCOIN

Aegis

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

2024 is gearing up to be a great year for crypto.  FED Dovish, interest rate drops expected, halving, Spot ETFs

Bitcoin up 150% already this year and only just starting to gear up.  My biggest bag, ADA, is up 150% in last 3 months.

On top of the ludicrous APRs I am getting yield farming.   Looking good.

My stock portfolio is up 49% YTD, but dwarfed by my Crypto gains.

Funny to see the crypto bashers still spend all of their time in a thread for a product they are not interested in investing in!   

Someone who bought a winning lottery ticket would be showing gains that dwarf your crypto gains. Doesn't make it a good investment, just means that they got lucky. And in fact, it's a very similar concept, in that both are zero sum games at best, so any gains that one person sees must eventually be offset by losses incurred by someone else (or multiple someone elses).

What a ridiculous analogy.  Winning the lottery is millions to one.  99.99999% or players are losers.  

BTC outperforms gold, SPX, NASDAQ regularly.  It has massively outperformed them over the last 5 years, 10 years....

The fact that you think it's a ridiculous analogy shows that you do not understand what a zero sum game is.

Aegis

silvercue said:

Funny how the Trolls who have no interest in investing in Bitcoin STILL spend more time in the thread than any other.

It's fascinating to me to see people caught up in a wholly irrational mania making statements about investments that are entirely nonsensical, and the fact that I am providing an alternative view means that anyone looking into the thread can see both the proponents and the sceptics without needing to do any further research if they don't want to.

MacPingu1986

User232002 said:

Currently up about 3x on the capital I deployed in to crypto this year and all I did was buy a handful of assets and wait.

Would very much like to thank these mythical multiple other people that contributed to my wealth in this zero sum game. Very generous of them.

Cheers.

Nothing mythical... as many many other posters have commented - buying cryptocurrency, or any currency, or gold, or fine art, or wine, as an investment is a zero sum game because its value is only based on the ability to sell it onto someone else at a later date - for what you hope will be a higher price. The asset doesn't "do" anything itself. You buy it, store it, and hope that someone in the future will pay you more than you paid for it.

When you dispose of your assets to crystalise your gain - that's because you've sold the assets to someone else. Your gain directly and only comes from someone else paying more - it can't come from anywhere else. It's zero-sum trading so those gains have to come from other making losses whether now, or in the future.

This is a money saving board so the relative safety of an asset class is important, as is it's ability to benefit the majority of investors rather than a lucky well timed few.  This is particularly important when various pro-crypto posters are constantly pumping up how others should invest in crypto whilst ignoring (or at the very least quickly glossing over) how risky it is for the vast majority.

Whilst you've made a substantial gain so far, my own experiences with cryptocurrency (not bitcoin) resulted in over an 80% loss. Fortunately it was only a very small part of my savings and investments but many others have faired far worse and as its zero sum without others making losses you *can't* make your gains.

silvercue

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

2024 is gearing up to be a great year for crypto.  FED Dovish, interest rate drops expected, halving, Spot ETFs

Bitcoin up 150% already this year and only just starting to gear up.  My biggest bag, ADA, is up 150% in last 3 months.

On top of the ludicrous APRs I am getting yield farming.   Looking good.

My stock portfolio is up 49% YTD, but dwarfed by my Crypto gains.

Funny to see the crypto bashers still spend all of their time in a thread for a product they are not interested in investing in!   

Someone who bought a winning lottery ticket would be showing gains that dwarf your crypto gains. Doesn't make it a good investment, just means that they got lucky. And in fact, it's a very similar concept, in that both are zero sum games at best, so any gains that one person sees must eventually be offset by losses incurred by someone else (or multiple someone elses).

What a ridiculous analogy.  Winning the lottery is millions to one.  99.99999% or players are losers.  

BTC outperforms gold, SPX, NASDAQ regularly.  It has massively outperformed them over the last 5 years, 10 years....

The fact that you think it's a ridiculous analogy shows that you do not understand what a zero sum game is.

If you buy Bitcoin you have a speculative asset you can keep or sell.  It gains or loses value as supply v demand does its thing, in the same way Stocks appreciate and depreciate in value as supply v demand does its thing there.

Not much like gambling on the lottery at 45 million to one odds or more.   

If you think crypto has no value, or is too risky or whatever - good for you.   Most investments carry risk.    if it is not for you, great.   

zagfles

silvercue said:

Funny how the Trolls who have no interest in investing in Bitcoin STILL spend more time in the thread than any other.

Trolls?? Seriously? Read the OP 

"Is investing in Bitcoin really worth it or is it all just a scam ?". This thread is about whether it's worth investing in Bitcoin OR NOT. So both sides are the argument are wanted. 

"more time in this thread that any other" I've got 20,000 posts on MSE and maybe a dozen on crypto, others seem similar.  

You want an echo chamber where you only get one side of the argument? Tough, you won't get it here.

Aegis

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

2024 is gearing up to be a great year for crypto.  FED Dovish, interest rate drops expected, halving, Spot ETFs

Bitcoin up 150% already this year and only just starting to gear up.  My biggest bag, ADA, is up 150% in last 3 months.

On top of the ludicrous APRs I am getting yield farming.   Looking good.

My stock portfolio is up 49% YTD, but dwarfed by my Crypto gains.

Funny to see the crypto bashers still spend all of their time in a thread for a product they are not interested in investing in!   

Someone who bought a winning lottery ticket would be showing gains that dwarf your crypto gains. Doesn't make it a good investment, just means that they got lucky. And in fact, it's a very similar concept, in that both are zero sum games at best, so any gains that one person sees must eventually be offset by losses incurred by someone else (or multiple someone elses).

What a ridiculous analogy.  Winning the lottery is millions to one.  99.99999% or players are losers.  

BTC outperforms gold, SPX, NASDAQ regularly.  It has massively outperformed them over the last 5 years, 10 years....

The fact that you think it's a ridiculous analogy shows that you do not understand what a zero sum game is.

If you buy Bitcoin you have a speculative asset you can keep or sell.  It gains or loses value as supply v demand does its thing, in the same way Stocks appreciate and depreciate in value as supply v demand does its thing there.

Not much like gambling on the lottery at 45 million to one odds or more.   

If you think crypto has no value, or is too risky or whatever - good for you.   Most investments carry risk.    if it is not for you, great.   

No, you have misunderstood the difference between buying crypto and buying a company's shares.  If you buy crypto, that's it, you have an asset.  It's an asset which does nothing and has no use to you or anyone beyond being traded at prices far in excess of the actual utility of the asset.  Shares, on the other hand, are a part ownership of a company that actually does something.  For good companies, there will be positive cashflow on the balance sheet, meaning the game is actually positive-sum.  This is a totally different scenario to the zero-sum game that is crypto trading.  The idea that everything supply and demand driven is the same is absurd, there are so many more fundamentals to think about.

silvercue

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

2024 is gearing up to be a great year for crypto.  FED Dovish, interest rate drops expected, halving, Spot ETFs

Bitcoin up 150% already this year and only just starting to gear up.  My biggest bag, ADA, is up 150% in last 3 months.

On top of the ludicrous APRs I am getting yield farming.   Looking good.

My stock portfolio is up 49% YTD, but dwarfed by my Crypto gains.

Funny to see the crypto bashers still spend all of their time in a thread for a product they are not interested in investing in!   

Someone who bought a winning lottery ticket would be showing gains that dwarf your crypto gains. Doesn't make it a good investment, just means that they got lucky. And in fact, it's a very similar concept, in that both are zero sum games at best, so any gains that one person sees must eventually be offset by losses incurred by someone else (or multiple someone elses).

What a ridiculous analogy.  Winning the lottery is millions to one.  99.99999% or players are losers.  

BTC outperforms gold, SPX, NASDAQ regularly.  It has massively outperformed them over the last 5 years, 10 years....

The fact that you think it's a ridiculous analogy shows that you do not understand what a zero sum game is.

If you buy Bitcoin you have a speculative asset you can keep or sell.  It gains or loses value as supply v demand does its thing, in the same way Stocks appreciate and depreciate in value as supply v demand does its thing there.

Not much like gambling on the lottery at 45 million to one odds or more.   

If you think crypto has no value, or is too risky or whatever - good for you.   Most investments carry risk.    if it is not for you, great.   

No, you have misunderstood the difference between buying crypto and buying a company's shares.  If you buy crypto, that's it, you have an asset.  It's an asset which does nothing and has no use to you or anyone beyond being traded at prices far in excess of the actual utility of the asset.  Shares, on the other hand, are a part ownership of a company that actually does something.  For good companies, there will be positive cashflow on the balance sheet, meaning the game is actually positive-sum.  This is a totally different scenario to the zero-sum game that is crypto trading.  The idea that everything supply and demand driven is the same is absurd, there are so many more fundamentals to think about.

I am not sure where I have said everything supply and demand driven is the same, I have just said that their price fluctuates with supply v demand, which they do.    

I have not misunderstood anything.  I own lots of shares, I trade many every month.  I don't give a rats **** about owning a portion of a company, I buy shares for one reason only, to try and sell them at a higher price than I paid for them.  Same with crypto.    I own crypto to make money from it, that is it.   

Aegis

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

Aegis said:

silvercue said:

2024 is gearing up to be a great year for crypto.  FED Dovish, interest rate drops expected, halving, Spot ETFs

Bitcoin up 150% already this year and only just starting to gear up.  My biggest bag, ADA, is up 150% in last 3 months.

On top of the ludicrous APRs I am getting yield farming.   Looking good.

My stock portfolio is up 49% YTD, but dwarfed by my Crypto gains.

Funny to see the crypto bashers still spend all of their time in a thread for a product they are not interested in investing in!   

Someone who bought a winning lottery ticket would be showing gains that dwarf your crypto gains. Doesn't make it a good investment, just means that they got lucky. And in fact, it's a very similar concept, in that both are zero sum games at best, so any gains that one person sees must eventually be offset by losses incurred by someone else (or multiple someone elses).

What a ridiculous analogy.  Winning the lottery is millions to one.  99.99999% or players are losers.  

BTC outperforms gold, SPX, NASDAQ regularly.  It has massively outperformed them over the last 5 years, 10 years....

The fact that you think it's a ridiculous analogy shows that you do not understand what a zero sum game is.

If you buy Bitcoin you have a speculative asset you can keep or sell.  It gains or loses value as supply v demand does its thing, in the same way Stocks appreciate and depreciate in value as supply v demand does its thing there.

Not much like gambling on the lottery at 45 million to one odds or more.   

If you think crypto has no value, or is too risky or whatever - good for you.   Most investments carry risk.    if it is not for you, great.   

No, you have misunderstood the difference between buying crypto and buying a company's shares.  If you buy crypto, that's it, you have an asset.  It's an asset which does nothing and has no use to you or anyone beyond being traded at prices far in excess of the actual utility of the asset.  Shares, on the other hand, are a part ownership of a company that actually does something.  For good companies, there will be positive cashflow on the balance sheet, meaning the game is actually positive-sum.  This is a totally different scenario to the zero-sum game that is crypto trading.  The idea that everything supply and demand driven is the same is absurd, there are so many more fundamentals to think about.

I am not sure where I have said everything supply and demand driven is the same, I have just said that their price fluctuates with supply v demand, which they do.    

I have not misunderstood anything.  I own lots of shares, I trade many every month.  I don't give a rats **** about owning a portion of a company, I buy shares for one reason only, to try and sell them at a higher price than I paid for them.  Same with crypto.    I own crypto to make money from it, that is it.   

Well, you went out of your way to draw comparisons between stock prices changing according to supply and demand and crypto prices changing according to supply and demand and how the two were essentially the same thing. Hence my explanation of how the two are very different.

For the record, most people buy shares because they expect to participate in the growth of a company, not just to sell the shares on at a higher price at a later date. That's why many shares are considered good yield plays, because they have established a number of years of dividend payments. If your sole reason for buying investments is to sell them for higher prices at a later date, I can certainly see why you wouldn't really care at all about the fundamentals of the business, focusing instead on the technicals, but the problem is that the longer the term of an investment, the more important the fundamentals become while the technicals are largely minimised.

As such, if the sole reason for buying crypto is because you expect that people will be willing to pay more for it in future, that's entirely fine, but it is definitely a zero-sum game and eventually someone will have to lose a huge amount to pay for gains made now.

The fact that it is so dependant on people putting money in for existing holders to make money is what makes me certain that this entire ecosystem is just a form of Ponzi scheme.  Early adopters can make a lot of money from Ponzi schemes, but it doesn't make them legitimate investments.

Scottex99

Blackrock etc are not about to give their clients access to a Ponzi scheme….

There’s also the possibility to make yield by staking your coins and supporting the networks via nodes and other tech type things. 

Granted, that got out of hand in the last bullrun and multiple big firms got in trouble in a domino effect from Terra to FTX to Celsius etc but there are always going to be some bad actors in any industry.

Aegis

Scottex99 said:

Blackrock etc are not about to give their clients access to a Ponzi scheme….

There’s also the possibility to make yield by staking your coins and supporting the networks via nodes and other tech type things. 

Granted, that got out of hand in the last bullrun and multiple big firms got in trouble in a domino effect from Terra to FTX to Celsius etc but there are always going to be some bad actors in any industry.

No idea where you got the idea that Blackrock wouldn't let their clients buy into a Ponzi scheme if they wanted. If they're acting as execution-only brokers, then its wholly down to the clients to decide what to buy, much like Blackrock are not about to start trawling through the list of penny stocks to restrict specific holdings from their clients.  Frankly, if there's demand and the opportunity for them to make money with brokerage or fund management fees, they will do that.  The risk isn't theirs.

Also, "some" bad actors? FTX, Terra and Celsius were among the largest exchanges in the world. It's really not particularly unfair to say that they represented the worst of crypto and were prolific players in the space, not just small outliers.  More to the point, that has no impact on whether the actual investment principles of crypto are sound or not.  It just adds to the issues associated with buying in to the hype: you can't even be sure that you assets are safe if you use some of the largest exchanges in the world.  On the other hand, I have been investing for almost 20 years and have never once had to worry that the exchange that I was using was going to fold and take my investments with it.