BITCOIN

Scottex99

Never a dull day eh.

Re-pegged now and USDT is at a premium. Is that also a de-peg if it goes to $1.05? Haha.

Circle handled it pretty well imo. USDC at 90c was a good buy. I didn't take the risk and dumped all mine into BTC & ETH on Saturday, scarred from Terra and UST.

Silvergate & Signature going down is problematic for a lot of crypto firms though.

Onwards we go

aaj123

Funny how all these years this forum has a tendency to smirk at calling Bitcoin an investment and simply point to how the price is so much below the most recent peak (no matter its many times what it was only a few years back). Yet, no such snarky comments are made about dud high profile shares of banks like CS and DB which have been on a permanent slide for ages.

Frequentlyhere

aaj123 said:

Yet, no such snarky comments are made about dud high profile shares of banks like CS and DB which have been on a permanent slide for ages.

The difference being that there isn't a group of people claiming that CS/DB shares are the future of money and mocking everyone for being invested in anything else or even just for believing in actual money.

Odd thing to say anyway as whilst price changes prompt discussion, anyone who pays attention can see just how manipulated it is. I mean, look at now. Crypto-friendly banks going down, Binance looks set to dash off with the cash, all fiat exit doors are being systematically sealed and BTCUSD is +20% in the last 5 days. It's a nonsense.

aaj123

Frequentlyhere said:

 Crypto-friendly banks going down, Binance looks set to dash off with the cash, all fiat exit doors are being systematically sealed and BTCUSD is +20% in the last 5 days. It's a nonsense.

It is not hard to understand why if you tried to find out why Bitcoin came about in the first place. All mainstream analysis tends to confuse badly run ecosystem participants with the underlying self-custodiable Bitcoin itself. Sure, if you choose to just rely on some scammy participant then you can get scammed. Doesn't mean the object you got scammed of is a scam. To put into perspective, all traditional scams have involved fiat money. Did you start therefore thinking that those scams were a reason for that fiat money to have no value?

And contrary to what you may read, no fiat exit doors are being sealed. Some participants are being restricted but have you seen the likes of Kraken or Coinbase say anything about their fiat gateways being blocked? Don't believe everything you here from ignorant journalists. Even the blocks put by banks are only on their app or online channel for precautions. No bank can refuse you sending money where you want (if a participant is not a named scammer) and they will do so through a bit of a longer telephone verification process.

Frequentlyhere

aaj123 said:

Frequentlyhere said:

 Crypto-friendly banks going down, Binance looks set to dash off with the cash, all fiat exit doors are being systematically sealed and BTCUSD is +20% in the last 5 days. It's a nonsense.

It is not hard to understand why if you tried to find out why Bitcoin came about in the first place. All mainstream analysis tends to confuse badly run ecosystem participants with the underlying self-custodiable Bitcoin itself. Sure, if you choose to just rely on some scammy participant then you can get scammed. 

The trouble is that it's the badly run ecosystem participants (i.e. Cex's) that bitcoiners need in order to fill their bags. The only way to make money with bitcoin longer term is for new mugs to join, and anything that makes it less easy for them to do so is not good for those wishing to speculate on bitcoin going up.

Re: doors being sealed, I haven't claimed it's impossible to buy crypto anymore, just that there is daily news of various shut downs of onramps/offramps. And again, anything that makes it harder is going to make noobs less likely to get involved.

Ref: "It is not hard to understand why if you tried to find out why Bitcoin came about in the first place. " could you tell us then where Bitcoin is headed next if it's not hard to understand?

If it falls back to $19k, what does that mean? If it goes to $30k is it going to stay there or swiftly up to $100k or back down to $15k?

aaj123

If it falls back to $19k, what does that mean? If it goes to $30k is it going to stay there or swiftly up to $100k or back down to $15k?

Are you able to make such price trajectory predictions for any asset like stocks or gold? Why then insist on needing this for Bitcoin?

And if your question is more about how to assess indicators for over or undervaluation of Bitcoin, then there are plenty through 'on chain analysis'. Now just because this is a framework quite unlike what you would have heard for traditional assets, you will try to dismiss it but the fact is the price isn't totally in a vaccum like you are thinking. It is entirely possible to assess likelihood of over or under valuation if that's what you meant.

Example: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-10-2023/

silvercue

Frequentlyhere said:

Odd thing to say anyway as whilst price changes prompt discussion, anyone who pays attention can see just how manipulated it is. I mean, look at now. Crypto-friendly banks going down, Binance looks set to dash off with the cash, all fiat exit doors are being systematically sealed and BTCUSD is +20% in the last 5 days. It's a nonsense.

What is a nonsense?  Like any other asset the price is dictated by supply v demand.  

There are  some clear reasons BTC is up:

1. People selling stables since the attack by the SEC - that means they buy BTC and other Cryptos
2. CZ  converting $1 billion Industry Recovery Initiative funds mainly into BTC 
3. CPI news brings hope of less aggressive rates hikes than feared

And - in addition, there will be some investors looking at BTC as a safer bet than banks at the moment!

Binance looking to dash of with the CASH?   I don't think so.  

aaj123

I am not recommending Binance as such and have only used them sparingly (and never for fiat and just for coin to coin trades). But if anyone is struggling to withdraw GBP from there, just buy crypto, withdraw to a coinbase or Kraken account and the ncash out from there. If this is what you are after then something like Litecoin is best simply because of the cheap fees in transferring out.

Frequentlyhere

silvercue said:

And - in addition, there will be some investors looking at BTC as a safer bet than banks at the moment!

I guess this is why I keep talking to Bitcoiners, the takes are just consistently amazing 

 A normal bank fails and its depositors are almost immediately made whole. The normal users would have been anyway, but even the big depositors were, and in the space of a weekend.

Bitcoin  - Lost your phrase? Ooop, 100% loss.  Hacked? Ooop, 100% loss. Put it on a centralised exchange that collapsed? Oop, not your keys not your coins bro, 100% loss.  Bought at the top? 75% loss, bad luck bro, the secret is to buy when it's cheap. When's it cheap? That's SO obvious bro!

The most basic errors or misfortunes whilst using this stuff result by design in catastrophic loss, which is then heralded as a virtue by its proponents. 

@silvercue - also, you call it an asset defined by supply v demand, so is it definitely that and not a currency? Or is it an asset when it goes up, a hedge when it goes down and a currency when it's having a brief respite?

aaj123

Frequentlyhere said:

 the secret is to buy when it's cheap. When's it cheap? That's SO obvious bro!

One doesn't have to catch the bottom or aim to eliminate possibility of any downside. With that, there are some very good indicators of when the price is reasonable. Read up about MVRV ratio.

https://blog.vectorcrypto.com.br/en/learn-all-about-the-mvrv-ratio/