BITCOIN

Malthusian

aaj123 said:

As for ETF, actually one called BTCE was accessible in UK and I still have that in ISA and SIPP. But for some strange reason, the FCA disallowed those kind of products to be sold to retail at the beginning of 2021 (ironically in the name of protecting retail)  so one can't add that now but can retain what we already had.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/en/etf/de000a27z304-etc-issuance-gmbh-0-000

The FCA's ban came into force on 6 January 2021, in the nick of time to prevent pension investors (and anyone else needing an ETF to get their money into BTC) pumping their retirement savings into Bitcoin at the top of the market in 2021, when the price hit £63,000.
It therefore has to go down as one of the most uncharacteristically foresighted and timely decisions in the FCA's history.

aaj123

Malthusian said:

aaj123 said:

As for ETF, actually one called BTCE was accessible in UK and I still have that in ISA and SIPP. But for some strange reason, the FCA disallowed those kind of products to be sold to retail at the beginning of 2021 (ironically in the name of protecting retail)  so one can't add that now but can retain what we already had.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/en/etf/de000a27z304-etc-issuance-gmbh-0-000

The FCA's ban came into force on 6 January 2021, in the nick of time to prevent pension investors (and anyone else needing an ETF to get their money into BTC) pumping their retirement savings into Bitcoin at the top of the market in 2021, when the price hit £63,000.
It therefore has to go down as one of the most uncharacteristically foresighted and timely decisions in the FCA's history.

Actually the ban came around at the beginning of 2021 when price was roughly what it is now. And its a huge relief to me that my pension contains this etf. That's the one constituent of my SIPP that actually makes me worry free. Personally I got into the etf mid 2020 when btc was under 10k.

Do you also pity the folks who bought near previous cycle tops in Dec 2017 and Dec 2013?

Too bad the FCA did nothing to prevent retail buying into bank shares like DB or CS!

Malthusian

aaj123 said:

Actually the ban came around at the beginning of 2021 when price was roughly what it is now. 

Precisely my point. Anyone who got in just before the FCA's ban still has a chance to break even. (If we overlook inflation, opportunity cost and a couple of years of return-free risk.)

And its a huge relief to me that my pension contains this etf. That's the one constituent of my SIPP that actually makes me worry free. Personally I got into the etf mid 2020 when btc was under 10k.

Do you also pity the folks who bought near previous cycle tops in Dec 2017 and Dec 2013?

Yes I do, because more of them lost money in the ensuing dumps than hodled to the next pump. That is a simple mathematical property of a zero-sum game (negative sum-game if you exclude electricity costs). Punters' money in == punters' money out. Few understand.
You may be alright Jack but that doesn't change the maths.

aaj123

Malthusian said:

aaj123 said:

Actually the ban came around at the beginning of 2021 when price was roughly what it is now. 

Precisely my point. Anyone who got in just before the FCA's ban still has a chance to break even. (If we overlook inflation, opportunity cost and a couple of years of return-free risk.)

And its a huge relief to me that my pension contains this etf. That's the one constituent of my SIPP that actually makes me worry free. Personally I got into the etf mid 2020 when btc was under 10k.

Do you also pity the folks who bought near previous cycle tops in Dec 2017 and Dec 2013?

Yes I do, because more of them lost money in the ensuing dumps than hodled to the next pump. That is a simple mathematical property of a zero-sum game (negative sum-game if you exclude electricity costs). Punters' money in == punters' money out. Few understand.
You may be alright Jack but that doesn't change the maths.

Full marks to your cope. You'll be fine. 

Meanwhile you are doubtlessly very secure with your fiat:

https://positivemoney.org/2011/04/the-confidence-trick/

DannyCarey

The dollar has lost 99.88% of its purchasing power vs Bitcoin over the last ten years. 

masonic

DannyCarey said:

The dollar has lost 99.88% of its purchasing power vs Bitcoin over the last ten years.

We all may as well quit our jobs, as we're now being paid next to nothing in Bitcoin terms. It's just lucky everything has become so cheap or we'd have perished.

Frequentlyhere

DannyCarey said:

The dollar has lost 99.88% of its purchasing power vs Bitcoin over the last ten years. 

And Bitcoin has lost 35% of its purchasing power vs Gamestop stock over the last five years. Who knew meme stocks were the real future of money?

Malthusian

DannyCarey said:

The dollar has lost 99.88% of its purchasing power vs Bitcoin over the last ten years. 

When you put it like that, it sounds like a really bad idea to try to use worthless dollars to buy a laughably miniscule sliver of magic Internet money. Like a 4-year-old kid with their first pocket money walking into a Lambo showroom and asking how many they can buy with their 50p.  Might as well HFSP.
The good news is that the US dollar has rocketed c. 250% in value over the last couple of years. It turns out the US dollar was the real get rich quick scheme all along! And atheism is just another religion. Few understand.

aaj123

Malthusian said:

Yes I do, because more of them lost money in the ensuing dumps than hodled to the next pump. That is a simple mathematical property of a zero-sum game (negative sum-game if you exclude electricity costs). Punters' money in == punters' money out. Few understand.

The flaw in your logic is that it is not just a case of money in = money out. While there are ofcourse many (like in any investment) who just want fiat gains, there is a growing base of holders for whom there is a clear intention to use Bitcoin as an alternate store of value and allocate permanently a % of their capital for the protection this gives against inflation. The pumps during bull cycles will continue because of speculators who get tempted by quick gains but the dumps only go down to levels much higher than previous dumps because of the rising hodler base. Even the hodler base will rationally try to sell into these speculation laden pumps but will promptly aim to buy back in when the pumps fade, thus solidifying a new higher low. Indeed, few understand this.

What this means is that eventually Bitcoin will have reached a stable peak which like gold will tend to be only moderately volatile and will continue rising with fiat inflation. In this state there will be ongoing liquidity because of people who exit to fiat for regular needs and people entering to hedge their fiat value against future inflation. Your mistake is to think that at some point, everyone holding Bitcoin will be rushing for exits - it just means you do not understand why Bitcoin was invented and what the real value is other than speculation that any investment attracts.

aaj123

Observe how $17 billion of Credit Suisse Bonds became worthless overnight. This is called bankruptcy risk and it is present to an extent in all traditionally financial instruments. On the other hand, crypto like Bitcoin and ETH are bearer instruments that you can be sure will exist even decades from now. There is no analogous cpty risk / bankruptcy risk involved in holding these (provided you self-custody). This very fact makes them have moneyness.