Tesla share price

AnotherJoe

Thrugelmir said:

Username999 said:

Gigafactory 5 - Austin Texas confirmed.
To build the Cybertruck and Model 3 and Semi-Truck.

Gigafactory 4 - Berlin.
Model Y very different to the US version, fewer parts, rear subframe now 2 parts compared to 21 parts.

Gigafactory 3 - Shanghai.
Local parts supplies, cheaper parts, improved margins.
Possible "Model 2" coming, $25,000 price point.

Plus new versions of Model S and X.

That's a lot of capex to fund. 

Yes but it's easy to fund, a huge amount comes from tax breaks and other incentives so the real cost to Tesla is much lower than you'd expect. (Tulsa and Austin had a massive bidding war over where the Cybertruck factory would go), the6 got massive incentives for Berlin , and so on. Not many automakers are opening factories , many are closing them. Mercedes Benz just announced 30k job cuts coming. 

And then there's capital raises and private loans at good rates. The last raise was at $900 / share which now looks a steal. 

And finally, if the Orange Psychopath  gets evicted in November , expect a raft of EV incentives from Biden. At the moment for example, buyers will get $7500 tax credit for each Japanese made Nissan Ariya they sell in US next year whilst Tesla,  built  in US, will get nothing. That will surely change. 

doe808

AnotherJoe said:

doe808 said:

AnotherJoe said:

And I would definitely buy into SpaceX / Starlink.

You are probably already aware, but SMT holds 0.6% of SpaceX.

Not sure who/which funds increased holdings at the last round of fundraising.

No, I wasn't aware thanks, I was looking but obviously not hard enough. (I do own a fair chunk of SMT as do my kids and grandkids (in JISAs for the latter) 

And just for the avoidance of doubt, that is the correct way round? 

 SMT own 0.6% of Sx rather than 0.6% of SMT is Sx ? 

Apologies- yes 0.6% of SMT is Sx.

Think SMT only publish top 20 holdings, so it can be hard to keep track of whats below that.

AnotherJoe

CashMoney said:

I was so close to buying into Tesla when they were at 290 but people were putting me off with things like "when the "big boys" like VW and Toyota get into EV's, nobody is going to buy Teslas over them". Still kicking myself to this day. Arghhhhh

Multiple reasons that wont happen for a while yet.

-ICE vendors have a dilemma. When do they switch away from profitable to to initially less or not profitable, EV. And if they cant make EVs in volume, where does that leave them when the EV is clearly superior to the ICE but the customer cant have it for 6 months or later?

-Running on from that, batteries. They cant just order up batteries like they can most components. Are they willing to make the huge  capital investments, either in batteries themselves (about which they know nothing) or battery contracts. So that restricts supply. That hit Kia and Hyundai's very well regarded EVs (I have a Kia) and lead to 9 month waits.

-And batteries again. if Company X, say Honda, get a run away success, then if they can get batteries from a third party, say CATL, thats fewer batteries CATL can sell to, say Toyota. So overall the supply of competitors is lessened.

-Competitiveness. Few "big boy" EVs are actually cost (or feature) competitive to Tesla. The new Nissan ARiya for example, nice looking car good specs, but probably will sell for mid 50's for the 300 mile range model. Same with the Polestar 2 (Volvo) and the Volvo XC40. None of those compare well for range or acceleration with the Tesla Model Y, and then you've got the SC network on top.

-Oh, yeh theres also to come Cybertruck will be huge in the USA (and is huge!) and a smaller "European car" to come as well. And with Tesla's advantage on battery pricing they shoudl be able to undercut equivalent sized Euro cars.

Still I appreciate its hard to jump in now its gone up so much. I'm still expecting an S&P 500 induced rise to $2k a share in the next few weeks but then maybe a pull back. My daughter bought one share a couple weeks ago at $1500

Maybe SMT would be a better bet, thats only doubled recently and has got some very interesting looking companies in it.

83705628

AnotherJoe said:

Thrugelmir said:

Username999 said:

Gigafactory 5 - Austin Texas confirmed.
To build the Cybertruck and Model 3 and Semi-Truck.

Gigafactory 4 - Berlin.
Model Y very different to the US version, fewer parts, rear subframe now 2 parts compared to 21 parts.

Gigafactory 3 - Shanghai.
Local parts supplies, cheaper parts, improved margins.
Possible "Model 2" coming, $25,000 price point.

Plus new versions of Model S and X.

That's a lot of capex to fund. 

Yes but it's easy to fund, a huge amount comes from tax breaks and other incentives so the real cost to Tesla is much lower than you'd expect. (Tulsa and Austin had a massive bidding war over where the Cybertruck factory would go), the6 got massive incentives for Berlin , and so on. Not many automakers are opening factories , many are closing them. Mercedes Benz just announced 30k job cuts coming. 

And then there's capital raises and private loans at good rates. The last raise was at $900 / share which now looks a steal. 

And finally, if the Orange Psychopath  gets evicted in November , expect a raft of EV incentives from Biden. At the moment for example, buyers will get $7500 tax credit for each Japanese made Nissan Ariya they sell in US next year whilst Tesla,  built  in US, will get nothing. That will surely change. 

Took a minute to figure out who the Orange Psychopath was, I thought you meant someone on the Tesla board!

AnotherJoe

tcallaghan93 said:

AnotherJoe said:

Thrugelmir said:

Username999 said:

Gigafactory 5 - Austin Texas confirmed.
To build the Cybertruck and Model 3 and Semi-Truck.

Gigafactory 4 - Berlin.
Model Y very different to the US version, fewer parts, rear subframe now 2 parts compared to 21 parts.

Gigafactory 3 - Shanghai.
Local parts supplies, cheaper parts, improved margins.
Possible "Model 2" coming, $25,000 price point.

Plus new versions of Model S and X.

That's a lot of capex to fund. 

Yes but it's easy to fund, a huge amount comes from tax breaks and other incentives so the real cost to Tesla is much lower than you'd expect. (Tulsa and Austin had a massive bidding war over where the Cybertruck factory would go), the6 got massive incentives for Berlin , and so on. Not many automakers are opening factories , many are closing them. Mercedes Benz just announced 30k job cuts coming. 

And then there's capital raises and private loans at good rates. The last raise was at $900 / share which now looks a steal. 

And finally, if the Orange Psychopath  gets evicted in November , expect a raft of EV incentives from Biden. At the moment for example, buyers will get $7500 tax credit for each Japanese made Nissan Ariya they sell in US next year whilst Tesla,  built  in US, will get nothing. That will surely change. 

Took a minute to figure out who the Orange Psychopath was, I thought you meant someone on the Tesla board!

coastline

One of many updates. Comments about ARK also.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-07-22/why-the-stock-market-is-so-high-and-tesla-even-higher
Hold on to what you've got 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Edeg9wYXgAEq7w4.png
https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Tesla-Through-the-Lens-of-Apple.png

Gadfium

doe808 said:

tcallaghan93 said:

Imagine what'll happen if he ever makes SpaceX public.

   The chat in the WSJ a while back is that Starlink will be spun off first, before SpaceX goes public. Interesting times when that    happens. Happy to hold at the moment via SMT.

Gwynne Shotwell is on the record saying that Starlink is the type of business that would suit being IPO'd. On the other hand, I doubt very much that EM will float SpaceX. That is literally his vehicle to making his life's work achieveable, which is to make humankind an interplanetary species. He'd lose huge amounts of control if he had to start answering to shareholders and they would be too risk averse to allowing him to do what he's currently at in Boca Chica.

doe808

Gadfium said:

doe808 said:

tcallaghan93 said:

Imagine what'll happen if he ever makes SpaceX public.

   The chat in the WSJ a while back is that Starlink will be spun off first, before SpaceX goes public. Interesting times when that    happens. Happy to hold at the moment via SMT.

Gwynne Shotwell is on the record saying that Starlink is the type of business that would suit being IPO'd. On the other hand, I doubt very much that EM will float SpaceX. That is literally his vehicle to making his life's work achieveable, which is to make humankind an interplanetary species. He'd lose huge amounts of control if he had to start answering to shareholders and they would be too risk averse to allowing him to do what he's currently at in Boca Chica.

Agreed, abiet Musk has said on a couple of occations that an IPO for SpaceX would happen, but only after they were regulary ferrying people to Mars.

keyboardworrier

I'm really hoping the Boring Company IPO's, I'm very excited about the potential of it.

Gadfium

Username999 said:

(didn't stop NASA employing Wernher von Braun - or did he became a US citizen). 

He became a US citizen in 1955, years before NASA was even formed.